In today’s Prospect Watch let’s take a closer look at Clayton Kershaw, who seems to have appeared on everyone’s radar after the promising spring that he has had. It is tough to come up with new information about this uber-prospect, and his relevance to Fantasy Baseball, that has not already been stated a hundred times. However, I have done my best to provide a different perspective on Clayton Kershaw.

Just in case you have been living under a rock, or you have multiple kids, I will start with Kershaw’s basic information. Clayton Kershaw is a 6′3″ left-hander that got everyone’s attention in 2006 when he posted a 13-0 record with an ERA of 0.77 in high school. Oh, by the way, he struck out 139 batters in only 64 innings. So now you can see why the Dodgers selected him 7th overall in the 2006 draft.

Ok, all of this information is great, but what about his “stuff”? I am so glad you asked. His fastball sits in the mid 90’s, but can get to the 97mph mark if needed. He has an excellent change-up that he is still working on. But it is the slow plus-plus and looping curveball that everyone talks about. Need evidence? Do a search on google for the curveball that he threw to strikeout Sean Casey in Spring Training. I would classify that as a “what the heck was that” pitch.

This curveball has everyone talking but Alfonso wrote a very interesting question the other day:

I was wondering what you guys could tell me about Clayton Kershaw, and how old he was when he started throwing his curve. I know he’s only 20, so I’m concerned he was throwing it in high school.

Since he was drafted out of high school, it is safe to say that he was definitely throwing the curveball in high school. Anything that I have researched about throwing a curveball indicates that you should wait until the age of 15 or 16. However, to properly answer the question, I consulted the guys over at www.saberscouting.com to get an expert’s opinion. By the way, make sure you visit their site; it is quite possibly the best scouting site that I have ever visited. So here is what Kiley McDaniel had to say:

I don’t have any specific info on when Clayton starting throwing his curve. I seem to remember he was more of a fastball guy that learned to pitch early and introduced the curveball later than usual, but I could be confusing him with another guy. Whatever I read concerning it would be google-able, probably in one of those pre-draft feature articles from a hometown or LA paper, or Baseball America. Sorry, not too much first-hand knowledge to add there.

I would say I am concerned with the popularity of throwing a curveball at a young age. I’m not a doctor, but I think most people can agree it’s not a good thing for ages 16 and under, and is frequently a bad thing since most kids don’t throw it correctly. I’d say a fastball-cutter-change repertoire gives a kid some pitches to work with, saves the stress from a slider or curveball (or splitter for that matter), and teaches the kid to pitch rather than rely on a middle schooler’s knees buckling when something comes up there spinning.

Watching kids throw a ton of curves in the Little League World Series makes my stomach churn every year, but especially when they rely on the pitch and are changing their mechanics and arm action to do it. While LL is instituting some pitch counts to save arms, as with Kershaw (per Vin Scully), the curveball is public enemy #1.

All of the scouting reports that I have read indicate that his mechanics are extremely sound. I have also watched as much video as I can find on him. I am no expert, but it doesn’t look like he changes his mechanics to break off the hook.

So when is he coming to the major leagues? I am not sure, but everything indicates that he will be up sometime this year. In fact, everyone thought he was going to be called up this past weekend. I am not convinced that he will be called up anytime soon. The Dodgers are too concerned about his innings count this year. In fact they are so concerned that they moved him to the bullpen a week or so ago. The other factor is that he is still developing his change-up, and until he gets that down, I don’t think he will be called up. I just think the Dodgers will want to give him more time and innings, baring any injuries to the Dodgers’ rotation. So a 2008 late season call-up and a full 2009 rookie campaign is not out of the question.

So what does this mean for your Fantasy Baseball team? It means that if you have the #1 waiver priority, you will want to wait for his call up. But you did not need me to tell you that. All of the other sites are saying the same thing. Clayton Kershaw will be a major top of the rotation starter. However, do not expect that out of the box. Kershaw will have his ups and downs at the start since most pitchers at his age still need time to develop. So continue to watch his progression, but do not expect him to be the savior of your team this year.