First the Chicago White Sox resorted to blowup dolls in the locker room, hoping to inflate their numbers (though even plastic chicks dig the long ball, right now only Carlos Quentin is displaying his bat to best advantage). Makes me think of Pedro Cerrano (the fictional Indians slugger) slaughtering a chicken for his voodoo ritual — then Wade Boggs eating it before the game. Next we learn Jason Giambi’s recipe for busting out of slumps: a gold lamé tiger-stripe thong, which he apparently loaned to everyone from Bernie Williams to Derek Jeter. How’s that for team spirit?

The moral when dealing with struggling or insanely hot players might be “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch or you might end up with egg on your face.” (And always use the hot water cycle). This applies not only to under-performing hitters but to “sure thing” spot starts: The numbers don’t lie but nor do they make promises.
Before continuing, my apologies. Like Kelly, life has intruded on fantasy; I started writing this on May 8, thus some of the following may seem staggeringly obvious. So I’m dividing this “columnus interruptus” into second/third-tier SPs with ceiling and cellar potential. Most of these guys are available in at least 1/4 of typical leagues (which is why the now universally owned Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Micah Owings, Zach Greinke, and Shawn Marcum aren’t discussed – all of them sell high candidates if you can nab a top star in return, but who will nonetheless continue putting up good numbers).

Gavin Floyd, CHA. Two near-no hitters made Floyd sudden mancrush material. He was always touted as a top prospect, drafted 4th overall by the Phillies in 2001 and ranked ahead of Cole Hamels by Baseball America entering 2005. He’s still “only” 25, and many pitchers don’t mature until later, especially if their confidence is shattered by a rushed call-up (Eveland, Volquez, and others are examples of prospects whose organizations gave up on them – not everyone is a Hamels or Lincecum). Floyd has recaptured his once-vaunted 12-6 curve, tantalizing change, and his confidence. However, look past the pretty ratios (2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). His K/9 is a 98-pound weakling 4.02, but he can’t point to a high groundball rate as compensation (FB:GB is 73:52). His BB/9 (4.19) and 23:22 BB:K are equally worrisome. Throw in a BABIP that’s hovered between .147 and .189, and we see just how lucky he’s been despite holding opponents to a .349 SLG and .192 actual BAA; those extra free passes and hits that will eventually fall in, coupled with a low groundball rate, mean he can’t rely on inducing double plays (or strikeouts). While his minor league ratios were superior to those of fellow White Stocking John Danks, Floyd’s control and dominance were markedly inferior, though he kept the ball in the park effectively. Indeed, he’s reduced his HR/9 to .913 with just one dinger in three home starts. But the 6.3% HR/FB is a mirage given that past years the rate was triple and only one third of batted balls are grounders. Unless he can raise his K rate to at least last season’s 6.30/9, with a FB rate nearing 60%, an inability to miss bats, and U.S. Cellular’s propensity for moonshots as the weather warms, you can dial it in: Floyd might resemble a blowup doll by summer once hitters regain their, um, stroke.

Jonathan Sanchez, SF. Talk about Jekyll/Hyde. Sanchez has followed sparklers – a five-start run in which he teased with a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP — with stinkers, though his last game showed improvement. He’s really only had two disastrous outings, both on the road, but even home starts might become a suck-cess story if we look beyond the shinier numbers. Nine starts covering 49 innings have yielded a 4.59 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. His BAA is .231, sustainable given his nasty knee-buckling stuff. His 9.55 K/9 (which has slowly slipped) is certainly elite, especially for a lefty. But the 4.96 BB/9 is dreadful, indicative of the inconsistent control that has plagued him throughout his career. It also means he labors, constantly behind in the pitch count, which is why he rarely goes deep into games. Considering the state of the Giants’ pen, that offers even less hope for Ws. Those ratios actually represent a decrease since 2007 (10.73/4.85 with a 2.21 K:BB), when his ratios suffered from a high BABIP; his GB/FB/LD rates have also regressed. Considering his BABIP is a relatively normal .299, as are his strand (69%) and HR/FB (9.6%) rates, what you see now is probably what you get; his LD rate (15.5%) and HR/9 (1.10 – a tad high for Coors and Chase) are sustainable. Only time will tell if Sanchez is the NL’s answer to Daniel Cabrera. Only 25, he possesses vast upside, but when you factor in the unlikelihood that the Giants can revert to their early-season hitting binge, he’s really only valuable in deeper keeper leagues.

Daniel Cabrera, BAL. How could we not discuss the original poster boy for “Wild Thing” potential, especially after seven straight quality starts, including his most recent against the BoSox when he allowed 10 hits and zero walks against a fairly patient lineup? In nine starts, he’s produced 4 Ws, a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He turns 27 next week, a magical age when not just hitters but pitchers put it together. The BB/9 has decreased the past three seasons (2006: 6.32, 2007: 4.76, 2008: 3.58, which was inflated by one scary seven-walk outing). On the other hand his K/9 has also trended downward (2006: 9.55, 2007: 7.31, 2008: 5.52), resulting in a K:BB, 1.54, virtually identical to the past two years. Some believe this demonstrates greater finesse along with the improved efficiency (929 pitches in 60.1 IP) and pitching to contact more successfully (amazing GB rate of 57.5%): the “he’s become a pitcher, not just a thrower” argument. Don’t buy the hype and hope. His .240 BABIP, 80.8% LOB/strand rate, and 12.9% LD rate are unsustainable and, if he doesn’t miss bats the way he used to, will result in a rocketing BAA (currently .225) and SLG (.369) and an ERA closer to the current FIP (fielding-independent pitching) of 4.90, especially given that Baltimore’s D is ranked 23rd.

Scott Olsen, FLA: First, the positive. He’s “only” 24, southpaws mature even later (physiologically not psychologically, though given Olsen’s pugilistic encounters with law enforcement, that might be my next study), he’s an intense competitor (which also increases the potential for destroying clubhouse equipment), and his 2006 rookie campaign contained mammoth potential (12 Ws and 166 Ks). Olsen’s another one for the apologists, who see a strapping specimen learning guile and patience, throwing more offspeed stuff to complement his overpowering heater. They pointed to his May 6^th gem against the BrewCrew as proof he was putting it all together for a big rebound season. Again, let’s look beyond the blinding record (4-1) and ratios (2.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). His control has improved slightly (3.86 BB/9), but his dominance has plummeted (4.01 K/9), resulting in an unpalatable 1.04 K/BB. From 2005–07, those peripherals, respectively, were 7.63 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, and a 1.88 K/BB. And while he had an excellent GB:FB ratio his breakout rookie year (194:169), it’s currently 57:91; 34.6% GB and 50.8% FB rates will eventually hurt you even in PETCO. So how has he managed to hold opponents to a .209 BAA, .295 OBA, and .335 SLG? In a word: luck. His LOB is 81.5% (remember, 70% is league average), his BABIP .213 (.300 is “normal”), his HR/FB 6.4% (10% is MLB MOR, and Olsen’s career percentage is 12.0). About the only good thing to say about the GB rate is it gives the Marlins’ infield fewer chances to butcher balls (Olsen’s FIP is 4.70 already). His sudden efficiency is admirable: 869 pitches in 60.2 IP (14.4 pitches per inning, 6.2 IP average in 9 starts; protecting his arm is certainly worthwhile, since Girardi’s overuse bordering on abuse of his young hurlers arguably led to their physical problems in 2007). Still, why is he averaging below 100 pitches per outing? Perhaps he’s getting hit harder the second and third time around the lineup – or perhaps his velocity is down. And sure enough, he topped out at 87 MPH during his May 11^th crapper against the Gnats, sorry Nats. Olsen brushed it off as a slight dead arm period following his previous 121-pitch outing (according to MLB.com, “I don’t think I’ve thrown that slow since I was like 13 years old.”). So perhaps there’s an underlying injury. How else do we excuse so drastic a drop in his K/9 (a continuing trend since his first full season), as well as the rise in his FB% over his previous career mark? Even if Olsen’s healthy, I see a fluke in the Marlin: This ace is more likely gonna be in the hole by the dog days of summer.
Summation: Blow-up dolls and gold lamé tiger-stripe thongs are certainly appropriate to fantasy, but successful fantasy sportsmen can’t afford superstition.