Roundtable - Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw Projections
May 31st, 2008 by winabango
This week the Fantasy Gameday writing team has assembled to give their best estimates on Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw. Both players have burst onto the scene and have caused quite a stir in the Fantasy Baseball world. Of course, Kewshaw had a terrible start last night, and I wonder how many owners have jumped off the Kershaw bandwagon already? So each writer will give their opinion on the two players and give their projections for their performance the rest of the season. We will see which one gets the closest, and that person will get a spot to brag about it later this year.
Tyler:
First off, I am biased in favor towards both of these guys, Kershaw is a tall LHP like myself and Bruce is on my Fantasy Gameday team. That being said those are pretty much the two best possible traits any player can posses, being like me, and being on my team.
- Kershaw:
- IP - 110.2
- W - 9
- Ks - 128
- ERA - 3.49
- WHIP - 1.32
- Bruce:
- AB - 319
- HR - 23
- RBI - 73
- SB - 25
- AVG - .310
Some instinct, most MiLB number references. Just start writing the “you are the next Theo” piece now.
Kelly:
The guys in my work league know that I love young left-handed pitchers, and Clayton Kershaw is no exception. most everyone knows my opinion of him from the Prospect Watch segment that I did on him. As far as Bruce goes, I am not really sure what to think about him. Sure he is good, but I don’t think he will be the Ryan Braun of 2008. Nor do I think he will be the Billy Butler of 2008.
- Kershaw:
- IP - 101
- W - 8
- Ks - 96
- ERA - 4.23
- WHIP - 1.41
- Bruce:
- AB - 324
- HR - 18
- RBI - 55
- SB - 14
- AVE - .287
Kershaw’s ratios will be inflated to start, as he struggles to get settled in. I do not think that he will pitch enough innings to bring his ERA and WHIP down to the level that he will be pitching by the end of the season. He is a young pitcher who will take a few starts to get going, but once he does, he will be fantastic. Bruce’s number depend largely on where he hits in the lineup. So far he has hit 2nd and 3rd, and so I think he will get plenty of at bats. However, that one slot in the lineup can change how much he runs and how many RBI chances he gets.
Ivar:
I haven’t been real good at projections in the past, but let’s give it a try.
- Kershaw:
- 115 IP
- 6 W
- 115 K
- 5.30 ERA
- 1.75 WHIP
- Bruce
- 400 AB
- 20 HR
- 75 RBI
- 5 SB
- .270 BA
Overall, I see both as being must grabs in NL only leagues and worthwhile in deep mixed leagues.
Chuck:
- Kershaw
- 105 IP
- 7 Wins
- 95 K
- 3.92 ERA
- 1.38 WHIP
- Bruce:
- 410 AB
- 20 HR
- 68 RBI
- 9 SB
- .305 AVG
Prospects tantalize/frustrate with their superhero potential: the next Braun or Gordon.No denying Clayton Kershaw’s Superman stuff. Abilities: filthy curve, dancing heater dialed up to 98 MPH. Kryptonite: wildness, though sheer un-hittability will help tame the WHIP. Lex Luthor: L.A.’s front office. They’re smartly restricting his pitch count; despite improved mechanics, his inefficiency prevents pitching deep into most games. Though he’s in the rotation thanks to Loaiza’s DFA, Schmidt might return. The wise moves are AAA seasoning or Scherzer-style spot starts/long relief. At best, he’s early Billingsley or Lincecum 2007.
- Kershaw:
- 80 IP
- 6 Ws
- 85 Ks
- 4.05 ERA
- 1.37 WHIP
- Bruce:
- 402 AB
- 19 HR
- 72 RBI
- 12 SB
- .280 BA
Is #1-rated Jay Bruce (.364 BA, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 37 R, 8 SB in 67 Triple-A ABs) Cincy’s next Superman? Abilities: Power, bat speed, aggressiveness, athleticism, decent base-running instincts. Kryptonite: Impatience (45:12 K:BB in AAA), though like Braun and Pence could maintain a high BABIP despite poor plate discipline. Lex Luthor: Dusty Baker. Jocketty undermined him by DFA-ing Hatteberg and demoting Patterson, but Freel if healthy could steal ABs against lefties when Bruce slumps.
Josh:
One of my friends asked me what I thought of Bruce, after he was dealt to a close competitor in his league. I said the same thing then as I do now: when it comes to highly-touted prospects, don’t bank on them putting up exceptional numbers. Many fantasy players expect so much, so fast, but chasing the next Ryan Braun is a proposition that often leads to disappointment. The leap to the majors is not an easy one, and even the best of phenoms can have their weaknesses exploited by big league opponents, at which point their ability to make adjustments will demonstrate how ready they truly are. What works in favor of both are favorable ballparks that play to their strengths, and their numbers will benefit as a result. However, the best prospects get treated with such care, that they get enough rest and restrictions to keep them from burning out in their first years, and there are not shortages of outfielders in Cincinnati or pitchers in Los Angeles to prevent them from being benched should they struggle.
Kershaw:
- 95 IP
- 6 W
- 105 K
- 4.30 ERA
- 1.45 WHIP
Bruce:
- 315 AB
- 14 HR
- 60 RBI
- 10 SB
- .272 BA
So there you have it. All of our thoughts on the two most added players of this past week. We will see who gets the closet at the end of the season.