I have received a lot of positive feedback about my player focused articles. So I will continue the series, and feel free to e-mail me with players that you would like to have examined in depth. Ted e-mailed me and asked about Bobby Jenks. So let’s take a close look at him.

Bobby Jenks burst onto the scene in 2005 and has posted 40 plus saves in each of the past two seasons. So, what is his deal this year? Is he now a top tier closer? What can we expect the rest of the year? Let’s start with his stats this year:

2 wins, 14 saves, 16 Ks, 2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Bobby Jenks ranks 10th in the Majors with his 14 saves, and his WHIP and ERA are solid numbers. He has done a great job of keeping the ball within the ballpark as he has only allowed one home run all season. However, he only allowed two homeruns all of last year. Gofer balls is not something he allows often, which is surprising considering the statium that he plays in most of the time. To go along with the low home run rate, he has increased his ground-ball rate to a career high of 63.9%. His strikeout rate is down substantially, but he is getting batters out. So with the results from this year, and the influx of questionable closers this year, Jenks needs to be included in any debates about top tier closers.

Or does he?

When you look deeper into his stats there are several that concern me. The K-rate dropping from 7.75 from last year to 5.68 this year is tolerable, but you certainly would like more strikeouts. However, combine the fewer strikeouts with a BB/9 rate of 2.49, and a weak 2.29 K/BB ratio is created. Well… weak by a top tier closer’s standard. Jenks’ ERA is also greatly helped by a very low Batting Average against (.219) and BABIP (.255). Neither of those numbers are a deviation from last year’s stat line, but the lack in strikeouts complicates things. Fewer strikeouts mean more batters are putting balls into play. More balls in play, means that the defense has to make more plays. More plays by the defense… well, you get the idea. In essence, the very low Batting average against, low BABIP, and a high walk rate equate to a disaster waiting to happen. Currently Jenks has a career high 82% strand rate, and with all of the other factors, that stat is also in trouble.

Factor all of these things together, and then add in that his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA is 0.94 higher then his real ERA, and a natural regression is bound to occur. I also believe that since his performance is not top tier worthy, you should try to sell high on him if you own him. If you are desperate for a closer, and trying to acquire one, I would go looking elsewhere.