I love looking at pitching and evaluating who will be great and who will suck. I am all over any pitcher with a high strikeout rate and solid strikeout to walk ratio - especially the lefties. Somehow, I always end up with a roster full of southpaws. So how do I evaluate greatness?

Contrary to popular belief, I do not look (only) at hand dominance. Nor do I give much credence to traditional ERA, because it is mostly beyond a pitcher’s control. One of the stats that can help is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) or batting average against, but these stats may only indicate a pitcher’s luck.

Instead, I like to look at Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is the expected ERA based on things the pitchers can control. Some sites refer to FIP as Expected ERA (xERA) or Component ERA (ERC). Here is the definition from Wikipedia:

“It attempts to forecast a pitcher’s Earned Run Average or ERA from the number of hits and walks allowed rather than the standard formula of average number of earned runs per nine innings. Component ERA allows one to take a fresh look at a pitcher’s performance and gauge if his results are more or less than the sum of its parts.”

For those stat-heads, the formula is

(HR*13) + ((BB+HBP-IBB)*3) - (K*2) + 3.2
———————————————
IP

Did that confuse you more? Let me simplify it. Fielding Independent Pitching is what the pitcher’s ERA should be based upon how many hits, walks, and homeruns he gave up. So here are ten starting pitchers with a positive FIP differential.

1. Andrew Miller FLA - 5.22 ERA, 3.61 FIP, .359 BABIP
2. Ian Snell PIT - 5.33 ERA, 3.81 FIP, .374 BABIP
3. Andy Sonnanstine TB - 4.89 ERA, 3.44 FIP, .342 BABIP
4. A.J. Burnett TOR - 4.75 ERA, 3.32 FIP, .337 BABIP
5. Carlos Silva SEA - 5.79 ERA, 4.44 FIP, .322 BABIP
6. Brad Penny LAD - 5.88 ERA, 4.59 FIP, .321 BABIP
7. Jarrod Washburn SEA - 5.91 ERA, 4.66 FIP, .343 BABIP
8. Nate Robertson DET - 5.46 ERA, 4.29 FIP, .330 BABIP
9. Ubaldo Jimenez COL - 4.93 ERA, 3.82 FIP, .336 BABIP
10. Gil Meche KC - 5.12 ERA, 4.03 FIP, .308 BABIP

At this point, I would avoid Silva, Penny, Washburn, and even Jimenez. Of the top 10, I like AJ Burnett the best. This is because he has shown domination in the past, and he is posting a solid K/9 rate of 8.86. His walk rate is still high, but his K/BB ratio is still over 2.00. It is because of that high walk rate that I have actually seen Burnett being dropped in shallow leagues. I also like Snell, Sonnanstine, and Meche for rebounds during the two months.

As with any stat, you cannot look at FIP, or any of the other related stats, entirely on its own merits. Fielding Independent Pitching is a quick and dirty way of determining whether the traditional stats are accurate. Remember, the sum of the parts tells the most accurate story. However, when you are short on time, FIP ERA can quickly point you in the right direction.