As requested by Pat, today I would like to take a close look at Aaron Harang in the latest segment of What’s Your Deal. Harang has been very consistent over the past few years, and was considered to be one of the best 2nd tier pitchers available on draft day. The lack of wins each year suppress any discussion about Harang being a top tier pitcher. However, this year he has been consistently bad. So what is going on? Is he just unlucky, or have all of the innings over the past few seasons caught up to him?

As always, Let’s start with his stats.

• 3 wins, 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 89 Ks, 101 innings

The lack of wins have really deflated his value, but the 89 strikeouts in 101 inning is not that bad. Currently he is ranked 9th in innings pitched, so I am a bit concerned about that. Especially when you factor in how many he has thrown over the past 3-4 years. It is interesting to note that Harang’s ERA is lower at home (3.40) then on the road (4.88). That contradicts the proven fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a little league field. It is interesting to note that Harang has allowed a total of 14 homeruns this year. Seven were at home and seven were allowed on the road.

So what other stats can we look at? Well… He is posting a league average .277 batting average against, which is no big deal. However, Harang does have an fairly high BABIP of .327. By way of comparison, here are the other three Reds’ starters BABIP:

• Johnny Cueto .295
• Edison Volquez .281
• Bronson Arroyo .359

Now you can see the difference between styles of pitching. Cueto and Volquez are more strikeout style pitchers, and tend not to pitch to contact. Because of this, their BABIP numbers are closer to the league average. On the other hand, Arroyo has an even greater inflated BABIP as compared to Harang. I would be willing to bet that most of the issues revolve around the lack of a really good defensive Shortstop. The rotating door at that position is enough proof of that. Also, in ranking third basemen by errors committed, Edwin Encarnacion being tied for 5th with 10 errors doesn’t help either. It is that kind of defense that will inflate the BABIP (which doesn’t take errors into account), and still produce a league average Batting average against.

The lack of a good defense may be the cause of the high BABIP, but it does not have a direct affect on his Fielding Independent Pitching number. Currently he is posting a FIP of 3.62, which is a fairly significant difference from his 4.10 ERA. Even though his strikeout rate per nine is down to 7.93, his walk rate has also decreased to a 1.78. Thus, creating a very solid 4.45 K/BB rate. By way of comparison, you want to try to fill your roster with pitchers that post a K/BB of 2.50 or higher. However, lower strikeout rates and lower walk rates mean that more balls are put in play. There is that crappy Red’s defense again.

As far as other things that I noticed… Harang’s fastball velocity is down a bit from previous years and he has been throwing more of them this year. His Line Drive percentage is up a bit (24.2%), and his homerun per flyball rate has gone up (1.25) as well. I think that one of the issues with Harang getting hit harder this year is related to the lack of his fastball velocity. Since his fastball has dropped to 89.9, the differential in speed as compared to his Change-up (81.4) may not be enough to disrupt a hitters timing.

As I look at the whole body of work, the BABIP number is the only stat out of line from Harang’s previous years. So I would say that this is one case of an unlucky pitcher. The fact that the Reds are only averaging 3 runs scored for Harang’s starts does not help either. So this looks like a pitcher that you may want to acquire, and is a definite hold if you own him. However, if you are trying to acquire him, the price may be climbing after his last start.