Quarterbacking Your Fantasy Team
Jul 14th, 2008 by Steve Vafides
Just like an NFL franchise the quarterback is the most important player on your fantasy football team. These are guaranteed points you should be receiving from a position that can hurt you each week if you can’t get some points out of your QB. If you’re stuck with a quarterback who has the potential to put up a dud each week, chances are your QB play will cost you a few games a year.
Over the last few years we have seen strategies evolve. We used to be told to wait on quarterbacks and to draft them late. With the inconsistency of early round draft picks and the production out of the top quarterbacks we saw last year, it’s now a whole new ballgame.
Like Jedi Masters you must choose your path. There are three paths to choose from when you’re dealing with the quarterback position. You must find out which path seems the right fit for you and go with it. You can’t play it by ear and wing it at the draft. Preparation for your draft is what separates the good teams from the great teams.
Find out where you are picking in your draft. A top 3 pick will almost certainly narrow your choices. However, if you’re drafting in the middle or late draft slot then you must decide where to look for your QB. Let’s see which path is right for you.
Path #1. Guaranteed Greatness
If you want to guarantee yourself to have the best quarterbacks in the business you grab your quarterback in the first round or second round. Why would you do such a thing? Because 50% of first round picks are busts that’s why. Guarantee yourself a player like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady in the first round and don’t worry about your running back losing goal line carries or getting injured.
Last year you laughed at the guy drafting Peyton Manning in the first round because only idiots draft quarterbacks in the first round. Last year I would have taken Peyton over Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Rudi Johnson and Willie Parker in 6 point TD leagues. 4,000 passing yards and a 31 TD season later will make you agree.
With Tom Brady’s emergence and Peyton’s consistency you can draft the QB of your choice, and only the questions surrounding your quarterback will be how many touchdowns will they score this week! Tony Romo might start sneaking into early to mid second round picks for those who were desperate to get one of those top two quarterbacks and missed out.
All three of these quarterbacks can make a case for being taken this early in drafts. I think Peyton goes back to being the #1 QB this year. That doesn’t mean grab Peyton before Brady but it means find out who wants Brady and trade down if you think you can grab Peyton later in round one if you think this path is for you.
The only downside to this path is the fact you will be a step behind in the running back/wide receiver selections. While everyone is grabbing their #2 wide receivers, you will be grabbing your first. Just make sure you hit on some sleepers!!
- Path #1 Rounds To Target: 1st through 2nd round.
- Path #1 Likely Targets: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo
Path #2. Middle of the Road
Last year this proved to be the more successful path. Guys like Tom Brady and Tony Romo fit the description as middle of the road quarterbacks going in the 3rd through 5th rounds and it reaped benefits. You draft a QB here because you are 100% that this is the best quarterback available that is head and shoulders above the rest. You never draft a QB here because you “need” one. There are 32 quarterbacks in the league, there’s plenty to go around. You draft on here because you WANT the QB available. You also go for upside here hoping to grab a top 3 QB by year’s end.
Guys who fall into this category this year are Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Anderson. Don’t be surprised if one or two of these mid round picks won’t pan out this year. Such was the case for Marc Bulger, Palmer and McNabb last year. Some of the risks this year include Carson Palmer and the Chad Johnson issue, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers legacy of a run first team, Derek Anderson and the possibilities of a one year wonder, and Brady Quinn looming over his shoulder also doesn’t help.
The bottom line, the risk here is drafting a straight up bust. You grab a bust here and you had better hit on your backup or else your hitting up the waiver wires from week to week. This path can make or break your season. Last year we saw historic season’s from QB’s being drafted in this area. The other risk here is drafting a middle of the road quarterback that you might be able to get a little later in the draft. Unless I am getting Brees, I am staying away from any of these QB’s.
- Path #2 Rounds To Target: 3rd through 6th
- Path #2 Likely Targets: Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson
Path #3. The Late Path
The final path you choose is solely based on grabbing a QB late and picking your backs, receivers and tight ends while other teams are wasting picks on talent that you can get later. The late path consists of the guys who will fall in drafts to the 7th round or later. Usually teams will have their starting backs and wide outs filled in before selecting a quarterback. Even a tight end might be drafted before selecting your first QB. This is a normal strategy due to quarterbacks popping up on waivers or hitting gold on some late picks.
Guys like Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger are perfect examples that worked out last year for those drafting quarterbacks in the late rounds. The benefit of this strategy is achieving value at a position where it is likely to be found. You spend early picks bolstering other areas of your team hoping to land this year’s Favre or Roethlisberger in the later rounds.
I recommend maybe drafting up to three quarterbacks if possible with this process. This way you can maximize the chances that you are hitting on one of these. Most teams who invest on a quarterback early will wait a little longer than usual to grab their second quarterback. That will put you in position to grab a decent second quarterback.
Some late round quarterback favorites of mine with tremendous upside are Matt Schaub, Vince Young, Aaron Rodgers and Marc Bulger. Three of these guys were drafted as starting quarterbacks in the fantasy leagues last year and Rodgers, Young and Schaub are at the age where they can fulfill their potential. They’re not a bad gamble especially after the 10th round or so. That’s the beauty of this path. You have so little to lose and so much to gain.
The good thing about drafting a QB late is that you are going to be gambling on picking up quarterbacks off waivers before they string a few good games together. Derek Anderson was probably picked up last year by the team who drafted a quarterback later than sooner. Teams won’t invest bid money or their waiver priority on a quarterback if they invested an early pick on them, so don’t hesitate to try and catch lightning in a bottle off the waivers.
- Path #3 Rounds to Targer: 7th round or later
- Path #3 Likely Targets: Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Jay Cutler, Marc Bulger, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Jake Delhomme, Aaron Rodgers, Jon Kitna, Matt Schaub, Jason Campbell, Phillip Rivers, Vince Young, Kurt Warner, Tavaris Jackson, JaMarcus Russell
