First Half Review
Jul 15th, 2008 by Joshua Bakal
With the 2008 All-Star Game upon us, I think it’s time to look back at the first half of the season and what it has meant to fantasy players.
All right, so Joe Mauer hasn’t gotten hurt yet. But he still isn’t the fantasy darling that people make him out to be. Sure, he’s hitting .322 and has 58 runs scored, but what else is he going to bring to the table? He has five homers total, and his 41 RBIs means he probably won’t reach the century mark. Plus he has no stolen bases, which is no surprise when considering catchers. He’s certainly worthy of an all-star bid in real life, but in the fantasy realm, he’s one of the least dynamic offensive players regularly selected in the early rounds. As 2007 fantasy managers reaped the inexpensive benefits of catchers like Bengie Molina and Russ Martin, so too are 2008 managers with the likes of Geovany Soto and Ryan Doumit. Also disappointing is the homerless Victor Martinez, who is currently battling injury, but is still an immensely over-hyped backstop even when healthy.
Boy, those first basemen really came on strong after a rough start! While I can still gloat about the tremendous and consistent performance exhibited by Lance Berkman, my third round ace in the hole, the rest of the pack has finally emerged to respectability. Prince Fielder has finally gotten his homerun swing in order, Ryan Howard is leading the league in that category, Albert Pujols is his usual self, and Mark Teixeira has gotten his average above .270. Of course, Richie Sexson and Paul Konerko haven’t produced, and Sexson is currently unemployed, but they didn’t command too high a price on draft day to begin with. One player who did, though, was Carlos Pena, and despite the exceptional first half by the Rays, Pena has gone back to being the very average player he was before his unexpected 2007 campaign. The Rays have started coming back to earth as well in the week leading up to the break, and as great a story as it is to see such promising talents coming together to lead the AL East for much of the year so far, the Yankees and Red Sox know how to deal with divisional pretenders.
A lot of the second basemen have stayed healthy and put up MVP-caliber numbers, paying huge dividends for Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler owners. Dan Uggla has also been impressive once again. Robinson Cano has been a huge disappointment for myself and many other owners, but like I did with Teixeira and CC Sabathia, I won’t panic. I’ll hold onto him through the rough times, knowing he’ll only get better.
The first round shortstops, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, have proven to be everything and more, though Jimmy Rollins dealt with injury and his power numbers are down. With the excitement of the Rockies 2007 finish, Troy Tulowitzki was a trendy pick this year, and his first half numbers are an example of why you don’t chase last year’s stars (note to 2009 Carlos Quentin owners), as the leap to stardom can be quite fleeting for those not named Pujols or Ryan Braun. There are no surprises with the rest of the group, though Johnny Peralta and J.J. Hardy have provided some pop lately to make them minor bargains.
As expected, the hot corner has provided a buffet of choices for the season. Alex Rodriguez would be in the running for the MVP award again, though a two-week DL stint may prevent him from accumulating the numbers necessary. David Wright and Braun have been worth their first-round draft placement as well. In fact, there really aren’t any glaring disappointments in the position, save for injuries to players like Chone Figgins and Ryan Zimmerman. If anything, many of the players at third have exceeded expectations. Chipper Jones has been mostly healthy, and has managed power numbers and a batting average that is even eye raising by his standards. Troy Glaus, Joe Crede, Aubrey Huff, and even first-year Evan Longoria have been valuable roster staples.
With the first half of the 2008 season over, there’s a lot more to look forward to. Hopefully, you’ve been able to sidestep a lot of injuries, as so many players have found themselves on the DL. There have been some good surprises (but don’t go overboard with your Ryan Ludwick pride) and bad surprises (on the positive side, I’ll pay next to nothing for Travis Hafner next year). Whatever your players are doing and wherever you are in the standings, know that there’s a lot left in the year, so don’t pack it in yet. We’ve got plenty to look forward to in the second half.
Man you really undervalue Joe Mauer! I just plugged in his on-pace for numbers into my valuation spreadsheet for a standard 12-team, 2 catcher, 23 man active roster league and he’s worth about $20, exactly what I had him projected for. I think you aren’t accounting for how much a .322 average in 500 ABs from the catcher spot is truly worth. And he’s on pace for just about 100 runs…as a catcher! In fact, half his value has come from all those runs scored.
I’ll also disagree with V-Mart being immensely over-hyped when healthy. He was absolutely worth a 3rd round pick in almost every league format. Whether you felt comfortable taking him there is another story, but given reasonable projections, those stats and his catcher eligibility resulted in a dollar value placing him in the 3rd round.
Thanks for the comments, Mike. While I agree that both Mauer and V-Mart rank among the top hitting catchers in the game today, I believe that isn’t saying much about the position to begin with. As I wrote several months ago in the piece on catchers and their relative value, I was able to find decent options that were comparable statistically with the “brand name” guys, but were available significantly later in the draft. In the article, I mentioned how much Mike Piazza meant to a fantasy team in his prime, with big time stats across the board for much of his career, but Mauer and V-Mart aren’t at his level yet. While position scarcity plays a key role in the decision to draft someone, I think the opening rounds of a draft provide too many chances to take a reliable 40 HR/120 RBI talent, stats you may not find easily later on, even in the denser positions.