With the Billy Beane ordered exodus of starting pitchers from Oakland’s rotation, opportunities are opening for some of the high minor leaguers in the system. The pitching friendly McAfee Coliseum (24th or lower in runs over the last three years) can help hurlers put up decent numbers, even if they are still adjusting to the talent level in the major leagues. Dallas Braden is holding a spot for now, and with the Angels pulling away in the AL West there is little incentive to throw out non-prospects Kirk Saarloos or Lenny DiNardo. The top performer for the AAA club has been Gio Gonzalez. The 2004 supplemental first round pick is second in the Pacific Coast League in strikeouts and has posted a 1.54 ERA through July.

Strikeouts have been a constant part of Gonzalez’s arsenal no matter what level he is at. In nearly five minor league seasons he has never failed to strike out at least a batter per inning, including a K/9 of 11.10 in 2007 at AA. He throws a fastball, changeup, and a curveball with a large break. The curve, as well as being left-handed and in the A’s system has earned him many comparisons to the pre-SF Barry Zito. His fastball velocity is apparently inconsistent, some scouts measure it at 90-93, some only in the high 80s. Baseball America has him peaking at 96 MPH in 2007. The stat that so far has best indicated Gonzalez’s progress is K/BB. Throughout his career, when making a significant move up the ladder it falls below 2.50 (but never under 2.00). As he “finds his footing” so to speak, it is significantly over 3.00 (3.47 in 2005, 3.25 in 2007). All other factors appear equal, his BABIP for the past three years is steady at just over .300. This year’s ERA of 4.46 is less of a concern as the PCL typically favors hitters. Sampling the past four seasons, this year there are seven pitchers in the league with ERAs under 4.00. In 2007 there were four, in 2006, 14, and in 2005, 6.

Looking closer at this year’s numbers, he contains left-handed hitters slightly better than righties (.211 avg vs. .244). He is not a heavy ground ball pitcher, currently at 1.01 GB/FB. Again, this would be more of a concern if he was coming up for say, the Reds instead of the A’s. HR/FB rates are 10% or less for his career, 7% this year. An extreme split is his home/road ERA. Home is 2.41, road shoots up to 6.09.

What I see in Gonzalez is a pitcher who is close, but not quite major league ready. In my opinion, if he avoids injury (as he has done so far) he will begin to succeed in the majors in 2010. His game log will show that he only pitched one inning on July 23rd, but the game was suspended by rain, he was not removed for medical reasons, nor is there an imminent promotion. For now, he can be a usable spot starter in favorable situations. I am eyeing the 10 games Oakland has against Seattle in August and September as strong options in particular.