Like I have stated previously, just because it is the offseason we are not going to stop writing about Fantasy Baseball.  Today I finally get a chance to site down and write about a player that I had planned to cover well over a month ago. Neil Goldman requested a “What’s Your Deal?” segment on the power hitting first baseman from Texas, Chris Davis.  So let’s take a look at him…

Chris Davis plays both corners of the infield, however, he is projected to be the prototypical first baseman.  At the beginning of the 2008 season, he was the 2nd ranked prospect in the Rangers system by baseball America.  He obtained this ranking after being drafted by the Yankees in 2004 (1496th overall), the Angels in 2005 (1063rd overall), and finally by the Rangers in 2006 (148th overall).  After smashing 23 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A, Davis was called up to the Rangers on June 26th.

Sporting average defensive skills and plenty of power, Davis proceeded to hit 17 home runs over the final 80 games of the season. There is no denying his power potential, as an Isolated Power of .264 clearly shows.  He also had an ISO of .285 in Double-A and an incredible .351 in Triple-A.  His mechanics promote loft in his swing, which a 39.9% Flyball rate shows.  Davis also posted a decent batting average of .285, however that was supported by a high BABIP of .353.  Considering that Davis does not have a ton of speed, his BABIP will most certainly regress over a full season in 2009, and thus drag his average down.

Like any young power hitter, Davis’ strikeout rate is very disconcerting.  Never posting a strikeout rate under 23% in the minor leagues, Davis proceeded to strikout 29.8% of the time at the major league level.  Combine that rate with a very low 6.3% walk rate and the high BABIP and the .285 batting average will not be repeatable.  So obviously there is a lot to be concerned with. However, his stats are no different than those of Ryan Howard’s from 2008.  Check this out…

Davis    K Rate 29.8%  17 HR in 295 AB, which translates to 35 HR in 610 AB
Howard  K Rate 32.6% 48 HR in 610 AB

So… yes Chris Davis has 40 home run potential, however, if you normalize Davis’ BABIP to .295… his batting average drops to .247.  Once again, that batting average is not that different than Ryan Howard’s .251 2008 Batting Average.

So should you draft Chris Davis in 2009?

I certainly don’t see why not. That kind of power potential cannot be passed up.  Just make sure that you pair him up with another player that will help sustain your overall batting average.  I would not argue with drafting him after the 10th round, but I do not think he should be drafted any higher.  If you league has walks, or OBP, or strikeouts against as a stat, drop Davis further down your draft board.

What round do you think he should be drafted in 2009?