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FBTM Slow Mock - Round 7, Pick 4
Jan 7th, 2009 by winabango
The draft is really beginning to gain momentum, and is certainly beginning to get interesting. After being conservative with several of my picks, and catching some flack from one of my friends, I knew that I needed to begin to be more aggressive with my next picks. Most people agree that during the first five rounds, you are selecting players that should be consistent each year. However, fantasy baseball drafts are won, and lost, during rounds 5 through 15. Since I selected Hunter Pence, here are the latest picks:
- Mike in Mason - Garrett Atkins
- Ronan in Ireland - Josh Beckett
- Dominik - Derek Jeter
- Dominik - Mariano Rivera
- Ronan in Ireland - Carlos Pena
- Mike in Mason - Roy Oswalt
Unfortunately once again I had a player selected before the draft rebounded back to me. With multiple position eligibility, I was hoping that Garrett Atkins would fall back to me. I would have slotted him in the first base slot that I wanted to fill. So I will have to wait on that for another round or two. Same goes for the shortstop position.
So where do I go from here? The run on outfielders stopped. In fact, the last outfielder (other than my selection of Pence) was taken 16 picks ago. So there are plenty of players worth taking at this point. However, I am really beginning to wonder why there is so much starting pitching still on the board. And I am not talking about scrubs either. Here are five pitchers that I would have no issue selecting with this pick
- Francisco Liriano - has a ton of upside, pitched well at the end of last season
- John Lackey - very consistent each and every year, great source of wins
- James Shields - continues to improve each season, love his change-up
- Cliff Lee - was so dominant last year, but may drop off
- Felix Hernandez - Great upside, showed signs of putting it all together
With all of this solid starting pitching available, how can I not select one of them? Besides, just because I have Jake Peavy does not mean that I should wait until later in the draft to select my second starter. One of the largest mistakes that owners make while drafting a top tier starter is to wait until the 13th round to select another pitcher. By doing that you have completely negated your vain attempt to have a dominant starting rotation. If you are going to make a statement, than make a bold one. So…
- With the 88th overall pick, I am selecting Francisco Liriano
I may be selecting more from the heart than from my head. As my friends know, I have a bit of a man-crush on Liriano. John Lackey would be the “safer” pick, and would be the better choice if I wanted to be concerned about win totals. I truly think that you can chase wins easier than you can effectively impact ERA or WHIP. Most of Liriano’s numbers from 2008 were skewed by his shaky performance during April. By way of example, liriano posted a 2.74 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 65.2 innings after the All-Star break. After allowing 13 walks in April, Liriano only allowed 19 walks in August and September. I believe Liriano has recovered well form TJ surgery, and should have a solid 2009.
With my current starting rotation, I have officially gone on record by stating that strikeouts are important to me. In addition, pairing Liriano with Peavy accomplishes the goal of making a bold statement at this point in the draft.
Who would you have selected with this pick?
I would have went with Lackey. People seem to be writing him off somewhat. He had the arm problem early on, which I think affected him, but he should bounce back and be “LACKEY” in 2009. Liriano is a great upside pick, but is the upside in round 7 worth a solid investment? If it pans out sure. I think you might have been able to grab Liriano a round later maybe two…. But you know your league mates i dont, and they might snipe him just to take him from you!
I also think there’s too much pitching around late to take another pitcher here. So in reality i wouldn’t take any pitcher, but rather grab another stick….
Tony,
In actuality, my strategy worked out great. There was a huge pitcher run before my next selection, and the three offensive players that I wanted are still there in the 8th round. I can agree that there is plenty of pitching late in the draft, but why should I reach for offensive players that are most likely going to be around at my next pick over a player that others have passed up.
I can agree that Lackey should be fine this year, and I would have no issues selecting him with this pick. In fact, I was going to take him, until I changed my mind at the last minute. I prefer the upside and the larger number of strike outs that Liriano brings.
If you got what you woulda taken with that pick offensively a round later no worries then. Lackey or Liriano, both should be good, with Liriano having the potential to be stellar.