Among followers of minor league players the big question is why was Rick Porcello’s strikeout rate so low? Before delving into that quagmire (to see how divisive opinions are check out some of the threads on minorleagueball.com) let’s evaluate his other statistics and measurables.

Porcello started 24 games and pitched 125 innings in the Florida State League (high A) in 2008. He was 19, generally a year to two younger than most of his competition. It was also his first professional experience. The league as a whole grades out with a slight advantage towards the pitchers, shown in the adjustments for doubles (0.89) and home runs (0.96). Porcello led the league with a 2.66 ERA and finished fourth in WHIP at 1.19. His walk rate was 2.38 per nine innings, which would be above average for a major league pitcher. His BABIP against was .280 and his strand rate was 72.6%. The BABIP is on the low side, but not unexpected for a pitcher who only gave up line drives at an 8.3% rate.

Porcello uses five main pitches in his arsenal. His two seam fastball has low 90s speed that he has shown the ability to control, with good movement. He can also throw a four seam fastball that hits 96-97. He has a slider in the high 70s that he often runs in on left-handers. His changeup has heavy downward movement and is a legit swing and miss pitch. The great mystery is his curve, a 12 to 6 offering that graded out very highly from his high school scouting reports, but he did not throw much in 2008. He has a ¾ arm slot which probably contributes to the movement he gets. As he gets later into starts the arm can drop causing his pitches to be less effective. RotoExperts.com has some great video of all Porcello’s pitches from a bullpen session.

Baseball America thought enough of Porcello to rate him the best prospect in the Florida State league, ahead of position players such as JP Arencibia (Blue Jays), Logan Morrison (Marlins), and Drew Stubbs (Reds). He also bested notable pitchers Jeremy Jeffress (Brewers), Jeremy Hellickson (Rays), and Sean West (Marlins).

Onto the strikeout rate. He finished at 5.18 K/9, a number that would have landed him in the bottom 20 big league pitchers. With his combination of a high velocity fastball and strong control it was unexpected. Two factors are often cited as explanations. First, he was limited to 75 pitches a start. He may have “pitched to contact” more readily, but for now that is just an assumption. Also, he threw very few curveballs in game action. Writers have theorized that the organization wanted to reduce stress on his arm, or that they wanted him to refine his other breaking balls. Nothing has been explicitly stated, so until we see Porcello use it extensively in game it is somewhat of a mystery.

To get a feel for how important strikeout rate can be in terms of projection I did some comparisons. Sixteen pitchers, each drafted in the first round no earlier that 1996 and no later than 2004 were chosen. I focused on tall right-handers drafted out of high school. Most have made the big leagues, some with great success (Roy Halladay, Matt Cain). Also included are a handful of wash outs (Sam Marsonek, Jerome Williams). Pitchers who never made it due to a major arm injury were not included. Only their statistics in high A ball were considered. Only Williams was younger at the level, seven others were also 19, eight were 20. Porcello beat all but Cain and Chad Billingsley in ERA. Cain, Williams, and Homer Bailey were the only pitchers to post a better WHIP. While that is encouraging, Porcello’s strikeout rate was the lowest among the pitchers sampled. Five were comparable: Jon Garland, Adam Eaton, Sam Marsonek, Bob Keppel, and Roy Halladay. Not an inspiring group to be lumped in with. Halladay’s case is somewhat unique, as he eventually made a second trip to A ball and emerged the pitcher we see today.

A conclusion that I feel comfortable drawing is… if Porcello does not strike out more batters he will fall short of his expected potential. Next year should be telling as his innings limit will be raised and restrictions relaxed. In a dynasty league, how would you value Porcello? Is he a top 10 pitching prospect?