Now is the time of the year to spot start extra pitchers.  Many of you know that this is a very effective strategy to maximize your innings pitched in a roto league, or gain precious additional starts in a head-to-head league.  Personally, I tend to keep a roster slot open all year, and use spot starting throughout the season.  In any event, this is absolutely the time of the year to do this.  Often times young prospects that your fellow owners do not know about get a few starts in the final month.  Sometimes it is just a case of regular starting pitchers getting hurt, or shutdown due to innings limits for the season.  Whatever, the case, the waiver wire can produce some very interesting pitching options in September.

So how do you research spot starters?

First of all, I find out who is available, what team are they facing, and what ballpark are they in.  This will eliminate numerous starters very quickly.  For example, Jeremy Guthrie, who has pitched very well as of late, is facing the Yankees in New York.  I don’t care how good you have been recently, I am not willing to take that chance.  Never mind the fact that Guthrie is a contact pitcher who does not strike a lot of guys out.

Once you have some pitchers targeted, look at the opposing team’s offense, especially over the past month or so.  Where are they ranked, as compared to the rest of the league, in runs scored, batting average, strikeouts, and On Base Percentage.  Since the All-Star break, did you know that Pittsburgh is the lowest scoring offense?  You might have known that, but did you know that over that same time period, the Pirates have scored 28 fewer runs that the San Diego Padres?  The Pirates also have the second lowest batting average (.241) since the All-Star break.  Only the Reds’ paltry .231 is below Pittsburgh.

Once you have narrowed your search down, look at the starting pitcher’s performance over his last three starts.  Why three starts?  Because only looking at his last start does not paint enough of a pitcher to make a judgment.  Anything beyond a month my hide the fact that the pitcher has turned a corner. While you are looking at that, take a look at who your prospective pitcher is facing.  How has that pitcher done over the past three starts?  Here is a good page to go to and get all this information in one place.

Finally… once you have all of that research, select your pitcher and hold your breath.  Seriously.  It is a great feeling when you get it right, but equally as bad if your are wrong.  The only advice I have for this is to temper your expectations.  Anything below a 4.50 ERA will not kill your ERA at this point in the season.  So a 4.50 ERA and five strikeouts will help nicely.  Oh… and that all important WIN!

Tomorrow there is a pitcher that I think fits this bill perfectly.  Felipe Paulino of the Astros faces the weak hitting Pirates tomorrow.  In addition he has 15 strikeouts over his past three appearances (16 innings).  Paulino was once regarded as a top pitching prospect for the Astros a few years back, and is trying to solidify a roster spot for next year.  He faces a recently struggling Paul Maholm as well.  Paulino has been added to my FBTM Premier League team for tomorrow’s start… just to prove that I try to follow my own research.

Is there a better match-up on your wire?