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    Round Table Discussion - September Strategies

    Sep 19th, 2009 by winabango

    With the season beginning to wind down, some owners are in the midst of a title run, and others are sitting on the sidelines waiting for next year.  However, the writing staff here at Fantasy Gameday are still working hard to present a few last tidbits of help for those who are still fighting.  Today several of us are here to discuss a topic that is very relevant… September strategies.  These discussions are designed to do two things.  First, they offer several opinions on a subject and not just one.  Secondly, and possibly more importantly, it opens a forum for all of you to discuss what you think about the topic.  We will be doing numerous of these throughout the offseason, so continue to stop by.  Just because the baseball season ends doesn’t mean we can’t stop talking about Fantasy Baseball.  So here is today’s question….

    What is you most effective strategy over the final month of the season?

    • Jordan Simon: Great question, Kelly. I rarely stand pat, whether I’m in front by 25 points or bringing up the rear. I primarily play Roto, so I’ll consolidate my lead or make up ground by aggressively targeting categories where I can net points (usually the counting stats; if you’re behind in BA, look for guys who’ll help elsewhere, like Jack Cust and Ian Stewart). This also means savvy defense, just as you might in cleverly “losing” a trade, by denying teams the chance to move up. For example, I grabbed Cleveland’s Michael Brantley not just for BA/R/SB where I needed him, but also to prevent my closest competitors from earning points in those cats; likewise with Gutierrez, Hughes and Morales for Saves. I’ve even dropped useful players if I notice a mid-pack owner has the top waiver priority and can overtake one of my rivals, so I tossed Lidge and Capps in two leagues where I’m well ahead in Saves, knowing the owners who’d claim them might gain points at the expense of owners closer to me in the standings.

      On the other hand. sometimes you have to play conservatively. If you have a near-insurmountable lead, why pitch/ditch? But if you’re in a dogfight and can gain a few points in Ks and Ws through targeted pickups (always minimizing ratio blowup risk), obviously do so. Above all, don’t be sentimental. Hurt studs or last month’s hot pickup are expendable, like a Madonna boytoy or the Tampa/Denver RBs in FFB. Monitor the news (especially for PT), watch the standings, and act ruthlessly, um accordingly

    • Randall Dean:  The most effective way to win a championship? Two words, pure luck. Sure, you can have the best team down the stretch, marching pitchers like C.C. Sabathia and Roy Halladay out for the final week, only to get outdone by 2 start scrubs. Case in point, Last year in a league I won 16 games in a row in one league, and made the championship in 3 out of 4. What did I get for all of that regular season glory? Nothing. 3 Losses. Scott Lewis and Brandon Duckworth’s two start gems foiled my plot of supreme fantasy warlord. I mean, seriously, Scott Lewis? He led all point scorers that week. So these are 2 of my ideas on how to be completely lucky and win this year in AL-Only formats.1. Go with the hot hand. Wade Davis and Brandon McCarthy are great options. Wade struck out the first 6 he faced and Sonnanstine isnt exactly picthing lights out. McCarthy has alot of offense behind him, especially when Young and Hamilton get back, and he has proven he can pitch with 2 wins in his first 2 starts off the dl.2. Go young. Players like Julio Borbon, Felix Pie, and Micheal Brantley are solid options, especially if your outfield got hit by the injury bug. Adam Jones and Grady Sizemore are among the casulties that make room for full time guys to prove what they have, and both Pie and Brantley have delievered. Even though Borbon doesnst start against lefties, he still racks up crazy amounts of steals and is actually coming off a 2 homer game.So good luck, march pitchers out there based on matchups and 2 start status, don’t be afraid to sit a stud, and you could be the next top dog in your league of puppies.
    • Chuck Anderson:  While I spend most of the fantasy baseball season attempting to accumulate the best collection of talented players, once the season grows short it is all about chasing points.  It is generally easier to make up ground in qualitative statistics rather than ratios as they are simpler to predict.  It can be necessary to work the waiver wire more frequently and be less conservative when it comes to dumping players.  It is more justifiable to grab a player for a specific matchup or a series.   Rafael Furcal and Alex Rios have recently gotten pink slips from me.    Hitting any preset maximums should be a priority.  I try to be over pace going into September, as many teams will back off starters in the last month.  ESPN uses games started rather than innings pitched, so it is wise to hold off on that last start until the year’s final day and keep getting stats from relievers in the meantime.
      In head to head leagues I like to specifically target the team I am matched up with and find players that will over-match the opposition in just enough categories to win.  Even more so than in rotisserie, the last five or so spots on my roster are completely open to daily changes.
    • Scott Yerbic:  For the final month of the season, go with whoever is hot.  Even if the stars are struggling, got to sit them down and go with someone who is competitive or on hot streak.  Such as Josh Beckett, even though he could break out of his current cold streak at anytime, he hasn’t won since Aug 12th and has allowed 27 earned runs since his win. If Beckett is active, he could cause a couple of losses if he continues to pitch the way he has been.  If he has a good start and looks to break out, then consider activating him. Another thing to look at is records home vs away.  Wandy Rodriquez for example at home is 8-2, 1.60 era vs away 5-7, 4.10 era. Consider sitting him on away games but definitely activate for home games.  The last thing is September call-ups.  Look for call-ups who could possibly take away at bats.  The call-ups may not take away enough at bats to make a difference but there could be a few who could see considerable time.
    • Kelly Pfleiger:  One of the keys to success that I follow, especially in head-to-head leagues, is watching the standings.  Not your Fantasy Baseball standing, but rather the actual MLB standings.  As September begins I evaluate all my players based on who they play for and where they are in the standings.  For example, I own Chase Utley and the Phillies will most likely clinch the division title shortly.  So I have concerns that he will be rested during the final two weeks of the season.  In addition, I owned Chipper Jones all season long.  Not only has he struggled lately, but he has been injured as well.  Add that to the fact that the Braves are out of playoff contention, and you have a perfect case to drop him before the playoffs even began.  The flip side is also very useful.  Adding players from the Rockies, Giants, or Dodgers would be smart right now.  There is no question about playing time lost on those teams.

    Those are our thoughts on the subject at hand… What is your best September Strategy?

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