Top 20 AFL Players to Watch in 2009
Oct 14th, 2009 by Chuck Anderson
Once again Fantasy Gameday will be providing comprehensive coverage of the Arizona Fall League. Many evaluators have called this year’s group of prospects as talented as any the league has seen. Rosters include 36 former first round picks and 14 top ten selections. For the first time the league will also feature five pitchers affiliated with teams in Japanese professional baseball. With action beginning on Tuesday, October 13 here are the top 20 players to watch. The list is largely figured on potential, but an opportunity for playing time in the majors next year and interesting stories are taken into consideration.
Honorable Mention (no order): Jose Iglesias (SS, Boston), Starlin Castro (SS, Cubs), David Cooper (1B, Toronto), Carlos Triunfel (SS, Seattle), Dayan Viciedo (3B, White Sox), Mike Minor (P, Atlanta), Nick Weglarz (OF, Cleveland), Josh Bell (3B, Baltimore), Jemile Weeks (2B, Oakland), Thomas Neal (OF, San Francisco), Jose Tabata (OF, Pittsburgh), Tanner Scheppers (P, Texas)
20) Mark Rogers (P, Milwaukee): He was the fifth overall pick in 2004 and received a hefty bonus for a high school pitcher. Complications from a torn labrum kept him off the mound for nearly three years, but he pitched 64.2 innings in A+ ball this season with solid results. It would be a great story if he could make a major league roster.
19) Ike Davis (1B, New York Mets): Gotham fans were edgy after his disappointing debut in the short-season New York-Penn League but his performance in A+ and AA in 2009 have eased them. Only one qualified hitter posted an OPS over .900 in the Eastern League, Davis was at .951 in 207 at bats.
18) Mike Moustakas (3B, Kansas City): His statistics took another step backwards this year, although most regard his home park as a difficult hitting environment. He will probably move to AA to begin next year regardless, but a strong AFL could put him back in the discussion of best hitting prospects.
17) Jason Castro (C, Houston): Strong offensive numbers in three leagues since he was drafted have some predicting a major league debut in 2010. JR Towles is still under the Mendoza line in 234 career at bats, and there is little else of consequence above him in the organization.
16) Jenrry Mejia (P, New York Mets): He was promoted to AA while still 19, but managed to keep his head above water. Scouts believe he has top of the rotation potential if he adds a bit to his fastball and polishes his curve. He is faced with another daunting task, the AFL typically skews as an offensive league. He touched 98 mph in his first start.
15) Derek Norris (C, Washington): He slugged 23 home runs in A ball and has a career OBP of .412. Baseball America rated him the best positional prospect in the South Atlantic League, over 2008 #1 pick Tim Beckham.
14) Daryl Jones (OF, St. Louis): His second year at AA was hampered by knee problems and he batted only 294 times. If Rick Ankiel and Matt Holliday leave the Cardinals a healthy Jones could be in contention for a roster spot out of Spring Training.
13) Josh Vitters (3B, Chicago Cubs): He tore apart the class A Midwest League, but when moved up to A+ his power evaporated. Walk rates around 2.5% raise concerns about his plate discipline, and at 19 he will be one of the younger players in the AFL.
12) Dustin Ackley (1B, Seattle): This will be the professional debut of the #2 overall pick. The plan is for him to play all the outfield positions, so his defense will be as scrutinized as his offense. The organization has expressed a willingness to push him, so if he responds well Ackley could move quickly.
11) Dominic Brown (OF, Philadelphia): Even though they have great outfield starters in the majors Philadelphia would not include Brown in any deadline deals. He spent most of the year at A+, but finished at AA where his OPS was 100 points lower. Baseball America rated him as the #3 prospect in a stacked Florida State League.
10) Freddie Freeman (1B, Atlanta): Baseball America ranked him #87 entering the year but he was #11 by mid-season. He made it to AA at 19, but his numbers took a hit and he was slowed by a hand injury. First base in Atlanta is currently open, but Freeman is not ready to take the spot just yet.
9) Drew Storen (P, Washington): While negotiations with Washington’s other first round pick went right up to the deadline, Storen signed quickly and pitched in 28 minor league games. He was very effective in limiting hits and walks, and struck out 11.9/9. It looks likely that he starts next season in the Nationals’ bullpen.
8) Yonder Alonso (1B, Cincinnati): He was another hitter who split the year between A+ and AA. His 0.89 BB/K shows a great approach at the plate and his OPS was above .800 at both levels.
7) Scott Sizemore (2B, Detroit): He is 24 and spent more than half the year at AAA, so he has as much high-level experience as any player in the AFL. Detroit seems ready to let Placido Polanco go and give Sizemore every opportunity to take the starting job.
6) Brandon Allen (1B, Arizona): A July trade brought him to the Arizona organization and he posted a 1.055 OPS in the Pacific Coast League before joining the Diamondbacks in late August. He was a low strikeout / low average player in the bigs, but a .183 ISO showed enough power potential for him to be in the mix next year.
5) Buster Posey (C, San Francisco): His offensive numbers in AAA were only a slight falloff from what he did in A+. He also threw out 38% of PCL runners attempting to steal. The Giants’ catcher position is his for the taking.
4) Andrew Miller (P, Florida): In 2008 his FIP was 1.87 lower than his ERA, giving hope that 2009 could be a breakthrough year. He logged only 80 major league innings hampered by oblique injuries and continued poor command. This is an opportunity to gain momentum for 2010 as well as build up arm strength.
3) Michael Stanton (OF, Florida): His power and athleticism makes scouts drool, but his strikeout rates show he is not a finished product yet. He does not have to dominate the league at age 19, just show improvement. He was #2 on Baseball America’s mid-season prospect list.
2) Jason Heyward (OF, Atlanta): Baseball America’s minor league Player of the Year did not stop hitting all season. He was actually better at AA than at A+ and is putting the heat on Atlanta to promote him quickly again. He walked as much as he struck out, hit for power, average, and even stole ten bases. How long can Matt Diaz or Ryan Church hold him off?
1) Stephen Strasburg (P, Washington): He is making his professional debut, but my guess is you are all well acquainted with him.


Norris is hurt and didn’t go to AZ.
Too bad about Norris, hopefully the hand surgery does not hold him back next year