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FBTM Slow mock… Round 1
Dec 5th, 2009 by winabango
What a great day to this point. Not only have we already picked six players in the 2010 Fantasy Gameday Slow Mock, but it is also my turn to pick in the Fantasy Baseball Trade Market slow mock draft. In conjunction with both mock drafts, the staff here at FGD have completed a roundtable discussion involving our top ten picks for 2010. Look for that to be post tomorrow. Enough of the house cleaning, let’s get down to business and make my first two selections. Here is the results of the first round to this point:
- Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – Albert Pujols
- Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Hanley Ramirez
- Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Chase Utley
- Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – Alex Rodriguez
- Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Miguel Cabrera
- Mike Siano, MLB.com – Ryan Braun
- Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Matt Kemp
- Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com – Mark Teixeira
- Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com – Prince Fielder
- Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Ryan Howard
- Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Evan Longoria
No real surprises to this point in the draft. Seeing Kemp drafted in the first round is music to my ears. I am so glad that I decided to keep Kemp last year in one of my leagues. If you remember this article from last year, choosing Kemp has certainly paid greater dividends than keeping Hart. Once again it is proven that the circumstances around decisions made, and not the players themselves, determine the outcome in a Fantasy Baseball season.
I truly wanted Longoria with my first pick. Third base is such a top heavy position. You have your top 3-4 players and then there is such a drop off down to the next tier of players.However, with my first pick I need to take more speed than power at this point. I spent most of last season chasing steals, and it really began to get frustrating. I could fine decent power hitters on the waiver wire, but never ones that could steal bags and not hurt you in other categories.
So with my first round pick I select…. Carl Crawford
I never believed in Crawford hitting 30+ home runs, unlike many other “experts”. However, his speed is unquestionable. He is a .290-.300 hitter that can steal 50+ bases in a season. Sure he stole most of those bases last year in a one month span, but when he piles up the stats does not matter in roto leagues. In Head-to-head this would be a different story. I like that his walk rate has been trending upwards the past three seasons (5.2%, 6.3%, 7.8%) and his strikeout rate has never been above 20%. Last season Crawford had his second best HR/FB ratio (10.3%), but his flyball percentage dropped to 28.7%. So even though he was more efficient with his flyballs, Crawford still only posted 15 home runs in 2009. I thinking adding a speed player with some power that can still hit .300 is a good foundation to start with.
So with my second round pick I select… Mark Reynolds
Yikes, I cannot believe I just wrote that. I hate players with K% over 25%, let alone 35%. But how can I argue with the obvious power. As I mentioned earlier, third base is very top heavy. So the debate was really between David Wright and Reynolds at this pick. Since I have already selected Crawford, I needed a more powerful bat than Wright. BTW, yes I do think wright’s power returns in 2010, but it still does not compare to what Reynolds can produce. The most remarkable part of Reynolds production was the 11.6% walk rate the he posted. This stat, and all the home runs, kept his on base percentage at a career high of .349. Even though his batting average will never be above .275 for a season, all the added power and double-digit steals make Reynolds a perfect compliment to Crawford.
What players would you have selected? Do you think Wright should be selected ahead of Reynolds?
[…] For additional coverage of the FBTM Expert Slow Mock Draft, check out our participants’ fine web sites. Kelly Pfleiger has already given us his view of his late-night wheel picks. Plus, Mike Siano has announced, via Twitter, that he and Cory will post rounds on the Fantasy 411 Blog once or twice a week! Thanks, guys! […]
For me, it would have been Wright and Kinsler back to back at that spot. Wright had no protection in that line-up last year with Delgado, Reyes, and Beltran injured all year. So I would be more willing to bet he has a bounce back year than on a Reynolds repeat. Plus Wright and Kinsler are capable of hitting 30 bombs and stealing 30 bases while producing 100+ RBI and 100+ Runs. How can you pass up two 30-30 guys at scarce positions?? I would bet on Kinsler and Wright out-producing Reynolds and Crawford in all categories.
Interesting thought Dan. I agree on wright having no protection, but currently there are too many question marks surrounding Reyes’ and Beltran’s health. Not to mention that Delgado is not coming back. Now, all of this can change if the Mets bring in Matt Holliday or a pair of solid hitters.
I think Kinsler would be a good choice as well, but he cannot stay healthy enough for me to want to pick him with my 2nd pick. Personally I think Kinsler is the best player mentioned here. I may be guilty of being to conservative with my early picks.
You gave me an idea though. I think I will create a “bet board” to collect the opinions of everyone this off-season. Then we can see how preseason statements turn out.
Frankly no surprises. In fact the order more or less reflects MDC’s early ranking. The four first basemen will be selected in many a draft’s first round. The intriguing question is whether or not secondary options at that deep position (eg, A-Gon, Ken-Mor) will provide nearly as much value. But at this point, players taken from 3-20 arguably will all produce barring injury, so it’s difficult to comment. I’ll be more curious — and opinionated after the second round.
When I submit my top ten to kelly (very belatedly), it will include players whom I think will produce top ten #s but won’t be selected until rounds 2-3. I’ll refrain from comment for obvious reasons
As far as Reynolds. He’s a risk, but he also wouldn’t come back to you. The Ks have always been scary and the supporting cast questionable. Wright should bounce back though questions do abound in that lineup and they’re not bringing the fences in at CitiField (Wright’s HRs barely cleared last season, not a good sign, but I also can’t believe he won’t post better RBI #s at least and high double-digit HRs). If Kinsler could stay healthy he’s an obvious first rounder; in fact, his #s from last year are elite even given the time off—and his BABIP was insanely low, suggesting a rebound in BA. IMO, at a still scarce position like 2B he’s worth a shot at 13.
Mark Reynolds scares me off a little bit. I think I will have to see if he can duplicate 2010 as to 2009. The K’s don’t matter to me as much since the league I am in doesn’t have a penalty for K’s. But I think he is a very intersting pick that early. He could surprise me and make me look bad but I will take my chances and passing on him early. I would probably draft David Wright before Reynolds (for now).
@winabango - love the bet board idea
@Jim - Ask and you shall receive.
Yall are crazy for passing on Lincecum in the 2nd and even 1st round!!! The guy is in a league of his own. How do yall think Johan Santana will bounce back this year?