sorry comment got cutoff, here’s the rest:

Once everyone else was gone though it was between Sizemore and Martinez for me.

I would love to get some feedback not only on this pick in this draft but on Martinez vs Gonzalez in general — I have to make a decision on which to keep (effectively as a 3rd rounder) in a 12 team league with 1 starting C this year… leaning VMart now but could change (especially if there’s a trade, although that is sounding unlikely at this point).

I’m happy with the way my first two rounds played out. I would have preferred Crawford mid-round or end-round, but I wasn’t high enough on the other guys (Braun, Howard, A-Rod) so I felt I should nab Crawford with the pick. Guys is still coming into peak years, so I don’t think we’ve necessarily seen his top. Getting Felix on the back-end gives me a quality 1 starter that I don’t think is much of a drop off from Lincecum. He, too, is getting better as he matures and Seattle looks like they may try to improve his defense and run support this winter.

I was seriously considering reaching for Greinke with the first pick of round 2, he seems like he and Tim could be perennial CY’s for years to come. But I went with Tulo, 30/20 from a SS is a bit too sweet to pass up, and I don’t trust J-Ro or Reyes to be worth the gamble.

Ben… I don’t blame you for passing on Reyes and Rollins. There are definitely lots of question marks that surround those 2 early on for sure.

@Jim re: Martinez vs. Gonzalez. I like Adrian in that comparison. He can produce anywhere and in any lineup. Sounds like Victor will be catching more this year than in the past few, that may take a toll on his hitting. Still like him as a top five catcher, but a notch or two below Gonzalez

Jordan, do you disagree with the results of ESPN’s Player Rater? Last year the most valuable 5×5 players were Pujols, Greinke, Hanley, Lincecum…which seems like a reasonable top 4. Crawford was #5.

Do you think Bourn or BJ Upton can crack the top 10? Personally I don’t, so when a player is top five in all of baseball I think he’s in a different class. Value is value, so if someone wants to draft the 10th, 20th, 30th best players in baseball…I’ll gladly take the 5th, 15th, 25th that they pass on. Maybe I wind up with too much of something, but that’s what trades are for.

Speed might be easier to find, but quality/stud speed (guys who drive in more than a few dozen runs or hit for great average) was the single hardest thing to acquire in my league last season. We dangled Verlander and Greinke without much luck.

I’m not defending it as a great pick, but there were worse in the round.

I’m not defensive about the Crawford pick because I question it myself. But I do think it is a reasonable picl. Jordan, the same “Bourn effect” you identify for speed is as applicable to power (Werth, Cuddyer, Morales, Branyan). Crawford gives you consistency and gives enough power to be more than a one tool guy. Wonder how far he would have fallen otherwise.

Sorry about the lack of comments. I was at the
Winter Meetings and just got back. I will go back and give my reasoning for my picks. Great draft so far!

@Scott: you picked two players I have in my top ten at spots 12 and 17, so I’m a big fan thus far. Did you take Ichiro more for avg protection (kinsler) or because you expect a rebound in steals?

ESPN Player rater. Yahoo Player Rater. Sporting News Player Rater. CBS player rater. Rotoworld, Baseball HQ or Baseball Prospectus analyses and rankings. PECOTA, CHONE, James projections… First off, they often deal with different types of leagues. We haven’t even gotten into h2h vs roto (and within roto, various categories other than standard 5×5). They all claim to be numbers-based, but the criteria obviously shift. Otherwise we’d see unanimity.

How many players really truly produce year-in year-out, as Yoram noted? How many fantasy owners will take pitching early after they’ve been schooled NOT to? Is it a valid strategy? Sure. But it also carries more inherent risk (and let’s not get into studies ranging from reasons for poor April performance to the Verducci effect), and as I noted since Ws aren’t within a pitcher’s control, you’re only guaranteeing 3 cats. Anyway, in many REAL leagues, those same experts touting SPs or Craw, etc, in their rankings and mocks often end up picking someone else.

The issue of drafting is one of perceived value. If most of the players in your league discount SPs for all the reasons above, then aces can be had later in the draft (Halladay is a great example). Many players won leagues because they drafted savvily — anyone who speculated on Vazquez was rewarded, for example. And I don’t give a hoohaw about any player rater. Aside from Ws, Vazquez provided far more value than Lincecum relative to his draft position. (On the other hand, how many owners were hurt by taking Hamels as their ace????) The key in any draft is identifying those breakout players (well, not breakout in Javy’s case, but noting that he was moving to a favorable situation)… Example? Watch Seattle during the off-season. Whoever ends up batting in the 3-4-5 spots will have huge RBI chances now that Figgins and Ichiro are setting the table.

This mock draft is also different because 14 teams changes the dynamic quite a bit. Reaches become more necessary if you really want a player (Zimmerman, whom I quite like, is a perfect example)

As for speed, I wasn’t suggesting drafting Bourn in the first round, LOL. I was speculating as to whether or not you really maximize value by taking a Craw that high. And the Longoria argument is flawed because you also have to factor in position scarcity (not to mention the fact that a young player is likelier to improve — not always, witness Frenchy, but….). It’s like VORP. Do you really want to end up wondering if Pedro Feliz has a job and if he’ll ever hit for power again?

@Ben. Grandy might have a career year. BUT it depends where Girardi bats him. If it’s second, hmmmm, Grandy isn’t a patient hitter. So he (and Jeter) will probably steal less; Girardi isn’t going to run Granderson when the big boppers are coming up. Now, if Grandy bats in the 6-hole, say, he can steal AND drive in runs, as well as score a few. If the Yankees are smart, they’ll also minimize his ABs against lefties (certainly drop him in the order then). Grandy’s draft order IMO is best determined once we see where he bats regularly in ST.

I think we should stop beating up the Crawford pick. I know I would not have made that pick at that point in the draft, but with 14 teams, if Dan wanted Crawford he had to take him as it was extremely unlikely her would come back to him. I prefer power & speed in the first rounds if I can get it, and if not, then power but that’s simply my prejudice in drafting. If you look at our roundtable discussion, only Kelly liked Crawford in the top 10.
My favorite picks are Tulo at 15, Longoria at 16, Reynolds at 20 (lots of upside and strikeouts don’t bother me), Holliday at 22 (an absolute steal, in my opinion), Gonzalez at 23 (don’t care about his stadium or team, he simply puts up great numbers), and Justin Upton at 28 (I was going to take him in the second round of the FBTM draft but chickened out and took Jeter instead, looking to solidify my infield).
I understand the Ellsbury pick, if Yoram does think that Wright’s power will return (I suspect it won’t as he seems to be another example of steriod avoidance-think Ivan Rodriquez from a few years ago), but would have gone with Holliday as my OF pick instead. Rollins and Kinsler concern me (Kinsler especailly seems injury prone), but I like the Zimmerman pick unlike some of the other commentators. Zimm has 30+ HR power, hits for average and even on a crappy team puts up RBI and R numbers that you want from a 3B. Sizemore and Reyes can be good upside picks, depending on how they recover from their injuries.
I think we’ve seen some picks based on past performance and I would imagine anticipated bounceback upside. Let’s see how round 3 plays out (oh, it already has, guess I’ll head over there next.)