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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft… Round 9
Dec 20th, 2009 by winabango
As I was digging our from the snow, the 2010 Fantasy baseball mock draft moved through the 9th round. Just a quick side note… over the next week we will begin to post analysis of some of the major off-season moves to this point. The writing staff and I will take a look at each move from a baseball perspective. Did the move make sense for the team’s involved? Are the teams done with off-season moves? Do the moves truly improve the team? Then at the end, there will be how these moves will impact us as Fantasy Baseball owners. But enough of that right now…
Here are the results from Round 9
- Harrell Kirstein - Asdrubal Cabrera - SS, CLE
- Rick Hoffman - Nate McLouth - ATL, OF
- Dennis Page - Elvis Andrus - SS, TEX
- Dan Kercher - Carlos Gonzalez - OF, COL
- Jim Halberg - Heath Bell - RP, SD
- Ed Taylor - Brad Hawpe - OF, COL
- Brian Hoyle - Rafael Furcal - SS, LAD
- Nathan Peiffer - Joakim Soria - RP, KC
- David Wilsher - Alexei Ramirez - SS, CHW
- Yoram Batner - Jorge Posada - C, NYY
- Tony Cincotta - Geovany Soto - C, CHC
- Scott Gilroy - Ian Stewart - 3B, COL
- Tad Blooth - Stephen Drew - SS, ARI
- Ben Santos - Chad Billingsley - SP, LAD
Obviously the run on second tier shortstops have begun. Actually, it might have ended that fast as well. Of the ones selected in this round I personally like Stephen Drew the best. Although, you can make a strong case for Alexei Ramirez to the best selection from this run on shortstops. I just like the way Drew is trending with his walk rates and strikeout rate. Ramirez is more polished, but Drew had better slugging percentage numbers. Not only did Drew have a better slugging percentage, but he also had a depressed HR/FB ratio. If you increase his 6.3 HR/FB percentage to a conservative 10%, his home runs climb to 19 for the season and his batting average would have increased to .270. I think these factors (along with his 84% contact rate) will allow Drew to breakout in 2010.
Other than the run on shortstops, there are no players out of place. The most optimistic pick is certainly Carlos Gonzalez. He could turn out to be a fantasy superstar, but playing time could be impacted if he struggles early in the season. I am hoping that Seth smith will get a shot to play this year. Even if it means that he finally gets traded out of Colorado.
One other interesting item from this round… only one starting pitcher was selected. Not sure what to make of that. Possibly the run on shortstop kept everyone from thinking about pitching this round. I am expecting the run on closers to begin very shortly.
Which shortstop from this round will have the best 2010 season?
Answer: Cabrera is the top SS out of Rnd 9. One plus is in some leagues he will qualify at 2B as well. He won’t give you the power numbers but he should give you more speed this year. He should hit around .300 with less than 10 Hr’s and 60 RBI’s. Probably won’t give you for than 60 runs either. Andrus is a close second. He should score a few more runs than Cabrera but shoud have 30 plus steals. Next season, I will be looking to say Andrus is the top SS out of this group. Top young and upcoming SS.
Soto needs to step it up and perform like he did in his rookie season. He was on the verge of being drafted after Mauer and not he has dropped behind Posada. I was high on him going into last year but his slot in 2010 is about right.
Stewart should have a very nice season. With Atkins out of the way, he won’t have to worry about sharing time. Nice selection.
Billingsley could be as great as a number 1 or number 4 in your rotation. He needs to put together a complete healthy season. I like him selected in Rnd 9.
I agree with Kelly. Carlos Gonzalez is on the verge of a huge season. He needs to have a hot start to make sure he is the full time outfielder. I believe when its all said and done, he will be an all-star this year.
Dan goes with another OF slot. Wonder what round an infield position would be taken.
Well we can all agree on CarGo. The Colorado OF is crowded, but I think he’ll see his ABs and quite probably deliver on his 20/20+ promise.
Cabrera is the safe pick here at SS. As Scott mentioned, his dual eligibility is a nice perk. Drew has the greatest upside, but I still worry about his down 2009, plus he doesn’t run, which you ideally want in a MI, especially at SS. Andrus is a great source of SBs and potentially Rs. In fact, 40+ bags is attainable. ARam2 is an enigma. Some of his peripherals improved, but he still seems raw. I also agree that Stewart is a great pick; he also retains 2B-eligibility in many leagues, making him Dan Uggla at a cheaper price. He should improve his AVG (though I wouldn’t expect more than .250-.260); there are still a few potential timeshare issues, mostly with Baker, but he should get at least 500 PAs.
I think people are undervaluing what Rafael Furcal may be able to provide this year. He has had an odd couple of years, with his ankle injury and his back injury. If he can manage to be healthy I think the .280/.350 90-10-50-25 guy we saw for most of his career could be back. He is still hitting lead-off for a pretty productive offense. If he plays 150 games in front of Kemp, Ethier and Manny, and can stay mostly healthy, its hard not to see him out-producing his draft position.
@Yoram
Have to respectfully disagree on Furcal. He’s a triple threat risk imo–age risk, injury risk, performance risk. I’m okay with someone like Chipper, who aged well and (until last year) performed at elite status when healthy. I’ll take that injury risk because I get to replace him when he gets hurt.
Furcal isn’t that reliable both in staying on the field and producing when there. He might go very late and have a very good season. For the risk/reward though, I’d rather go earlier with a bounceback candidate like Alexei…or even wait longer to get a young sleeper like Alcides. (Certainly wouldn’t rank Furcal ahead of Alexei though.)
@Jimbo
I wouldn’t take Furcal over Ramirez. I was just thinking that as much as Furcal was overvalued going into last year I think he’ll be undervalued going into next year. He’s only 32 so age shouldn’t be a big factor, yet. I don’t think my projections for him are way out of whack. Health is the big issue for him. Whether or not he attempts any stolen bases in spring training will go a long way, for me, in deciding whether or not he’ll have value in 2010.
@ Yoram
I’d still take Yunel Escobar or Asdrubal Cabrera over Furcal, so maybe I’m one of those undervaluing him already!
I’m pretty happy with the Gonzalez pick. Some have been critical of my practice of taking OFs, but it has really been a question of value. In hindsight, I took Jurrjens thinking Andrus or A Cabrera would be available coming back. But each time I’ve picked, I found an OF or SP I really liked. We’ll see how it plays out. In hindsight, I would have taken someone more versatile in round 1 (Utley or Kemp) but I’m fine this with this strategy.
I really like Gonzalez, but am starting to wonder if he’s going to be at a premium by the time my draft rolls around. Last year some of the hyped young’ns didn’t fare so well (Davis - 7th rnd, Bruce - 9th rnd, Kendrick - 11th).
But at the 116th pick he could easily deliver 5th round value. If he “disappoints” with 8th round production he’s still a good pick. I definitely DON’T think he’s Chris Young. (Peripherals actually remind me of Kemp quite a bit.)
As I posted in the comments for round 8, I am holding off analyzing any specific team rosters until the first 10 rounds are done. That being said, here are the players I love in this round, value-wise:
Carlos Gonzalez
Brad Hawpe
Chad Billingsley
The two Rockies OFs offer upside performance assuming Colorado does something about their crowded outfield (here’s hoping Seth Smith or Dexter Fowler gets traded to a team that gives them an everyday job). Hawpe offers more immediate power while Car Go provides speed and power assuming he plays up to his potential.
Billingsley is an ace that works extremely well as a SP2 on any roster. With the amount of pitching that has left the draft board, I like this selection in this round a lot.
Picks I am not enamored of:
McLouth
Furcal
Alexei Ramirez
Soto
The only problems I have with these picks is inconsistent production from all four players. Injuries for the most part derailed their 2009 seasons, with the exception of Furcal (surprise!) but even so, his steals were way down from what is expected. I was extremely high on McLouth last season and felt let down by his numbers, but that’s prolly just personal. I never have trusted catchers, and even in leagues that require 2, I tend to wait ’til the end of the draft to fill the position(s). I really don’t know what to expect of Ramirez this year, but fully expect he will struggle early on until the temperatures warm up.
The balance of the picks don’t particularly excite me, but as far as where the players went in the draft, seem appropriate.
The draft is now approaching an area where the majority of roster needs should have been met, and now it is time to fill in with steady picks or speculate on potential, if you are not going with pitching. Round 10 should be interesting.