The high hopes and aspirations of May have come hurdling towards the Earth here in September. Just two weeks left in the season and I’m 20 points out of first place. If I were in a redraft league, all I gots is pride to play for. Try not to finish last, finish in the top half or at the minimum finish above Ivar. If I were in a keeper league, I would still aim to do those things but also position myself for next year. If this is unfamiliar concept to you… go ask any Cubs, Royals or Pirates fan.

The first thing you need to know about preparing for next year in a keeper league is to know your league’s rules. How many players can you keep and at what cost? When do you have to submit your lists of players? Can you trade or pickup players in the offseason? You need to know the definitive answers to these questions.

In auction leagues, you need to know how the 2012 prices are set for keepers. Is there a simple markup on their 2011 price? If that is the case then you have a clear idea of their price for 2012. In Ivar’s keeper league, the player’s values are set by an average auction preseason auction value from  a few different websites. For example, this year, Carl Crawford was deemed to have a $32 value in this league based on the average of various preseason auction values that Ivar compiled.  In this league, I will not know the price for any player until next spring.

In snake draft leagues, you need to know the “cost” of each player to be protected. Most leagues fall into two camps: a flat number of players that each owner can keep or each player costs a certain round draft pick.  In the former format, any player you protect should equal a top round talent. For example, if you have to keep five players, a good rule of thumb would be to make sure that your keepers are perceived to be top five round talents. In the keep-for-a-certain-round-pick format, you need to make sure that you are getting value for protecting that player. For example, keeping Drew Stubbs in an NL-Only league for a 1^st round pick would not be considered value. But keeping him for a 14^th round pick is getting a nice scoop of value with a cherry on top.

End of season (endgame) strategies

Must protect a fixed number of players format – the name of the game here is to get your hands on some studs and start building a solid foundation for 2012. Like I said before, if you have to keep X number of players make sure that they are perceived top X round talents… at a minimum. Now, what if you have to keep five players and your gut is telling you that your top five guys are perceived 3^rd-5^th round types of players. You need to starting thinking of packaging some of them up to get a bigger stud. There are bound to be a few teams that will be overloaded with keeper level talent. They will be looking at six or more players that are worth keeping. Now, if you are the owner that finds yourself with a wealth of riches, you should seek out the teams that are talent-poor and work out a deal. I personally would never keep a pitcher in this format… unless it is Halladay, Verlander, Lincecum or Lee. Also, don’t be tempted to keep a catcher. I know keeping McCann seems like the best thing to do… just don’t do it. Catcher is going to be a deep position next year. When trying to swing a deal, don’t get greedy. The chances of turning in the keeper list of 5 first-rounders are slim. Be realistic.

2012 keeper price is known today format – your goal here is to get your greedy hands on the most lottery tickets. I say this because, right now we’re not positive what the perceived value of any player will be next spring. We have vague ideas on most players, but nothing concrete… and a lot can happen over the winter. So, you want to collect as many players that you feel will be worth more than their keeper price. The Drew Stubbs example I used above is taken from the FGD NL-Only league. Barring some drastic happening on the offseason, I’m expecting him to be worth more than the 14^th round pick I have to pay to keep him.

The price to keep player in the FGD NL-Only league is three rounds higher than the round they were drafted in the previous year’s draft. Any players that were not drafted are treated as if they were drafted in the final (24^th) round. My strategy in this league is to stockpile players and try to make some trades next spring when a clearer picture of each player’s value comes into focus. I’ve already picked up Hundley (keeper cost of 21^st round pick), Kyle Blanks (16^th), Yonder Alonso (17^th), Anthony Rizzo (18^th), Chris Heisley (21^st), Nick Evans (21^st), Juan Francisco (21^st) and Todd Frazier (21^st).

One thing to remember in this type of format is that player’s values will be inflated because of the players that will be protected for a cost way below their value. To use a real world example and to also illustrate that keeper strategies apply to all fantasy sports, in one of my keeper football league drafts this season, I protected Matt Forte for my 2^nd round pick (23^rd overall). With his ADP of 20.96, I wasn’t positive that I wanted to protect him at first. I took a look at the other rosters in the league and took a guess at who would be protected and determined that  Jamaal Charles (ADP 4.17), Darren McFadden (13.42), Aaron Rodgers (11.58), Hakeem Nicks (19.00) & Peyton Hillis (24.58) would all be protected. With this list of players off the board, I could tell that Forte wasn’t going to make it back to me at the 11^th pick in 2^nd round (23^rd overall), so the decision to protect him became much easier.

2012 keeper value is not known yet format – this format is a little trickier and your strategy is really dependent on how the keeper cost is determined. The only example I can speak for is Ivar’s keeper league that I mentioned above. One strategy I’m using  in this league is to amass players that I believe will be useful next season but were useless this season. Since the keeper cost is determined by the average auction values generated next spring, I’m trying to get a read on players that will be undervalued next season.

I’m looking at players that have spent a great deal of time injured, in the minors or just plain sucked in 2011 (but will bounce back in 2012). Buster Posey, Zack Cozart, Adam Wainwright, Jorge de la Rosa and Johan Santana are just few guys that are on the DL that should probably be owned in most keeper leagues. As for minor league guys, Chet over at Razzball.com recently posted a Top 50 fantasy baseball prospects for 2012 article. You should definitely check it out and try to obtain any player on this list.

In this league, I protected Crawford at that $32 price this past spring. Even though his 2011 has left a lot, I mean, A LOT to be desired, I’m hanging on to him because I think his average auction price in 2012 will be lower and the talent is still there (at least that is what I am telling myself over and over as I cry in a corner in the fetal position). You can also find Alex Rios, David Wright, Ben Zobrist and Ichiro on my roster  for this same reason.

In any keeper strategy you are looking to put your fantasy squad in the best possible position for the 2012 draft. This means that you are predicting how these players are going to do next year and; in turn, you’ve started your 2012 draft preparation. As you know, a major part of draft prep is rankings! The folks over at FantasyRundown.com have already started compiling 2012 rankings from various sites. Check this out to get an idea of the perceived value of players next spring.

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I’m changing things up in this edition of Three Up Three down. I will not be taking my usual look at lucky/unlucky pitchers. Instead, I will be looking at three hitters that shouldn’t be on any respectable fantasy owner’s roster. For each hitter I tell you to cut ties with, I will give you three hitters that you can replace them with. This article is intended for owners that are still in the hunt for glory, but I’m a firm believer that you should field a competitive squad all the way until the end of the season. Don’t be the guy that abandons his team because you have no chance at winning.

What to do if you have no shot at 1^st place? If you are in a non-keeper league do like I do… try to finish in the top half or pick an owner above you and aim to finish higher than him… and let him know that you are gunning for him. Have fun. That is why you do this, right? If you are in a keeper league and find yourself out of contention, you still need to play for next year. I hope to write an article in the near future on this topic.

As for the leagues where you are still in the race, you need to still be making moves to improve your roster. The trading deadline may have passed… but you can still make trades with your old friend  the waiver wire.

*All stats are from FanGraphs.com and BaseballReference.com through games played on Friday, September 9^th.

Middle Infield - This guy is hurting you: Ben Zobrist (TB – 2B,OF)

·         Before August 4^th: 400 ABs - 15 HRs - 62 RBI - 72 Runs  - 12 SB - .283 AVG

·         Since August 4^th: 122 ABs - 0 HRs – 14 RBI – 15 Runs – 4 SB - .238 AVG

I picked August 3^rd as the cutoff date because that is the date of his last homerun.  In the last month he has been brutal and he is owned in 100% of ESPN and 93% of Yahoo leagues.  Why has he been this bad since August 3^rd? I don’t know and frankly, I don’t care. We’re trying to win a trophy. I don’t have time to analyze why the suck is there – I’m just here to point out that it is there.

Drop Zobrist for one of these guys:

Omar Infante (FLA - 2B,3B,OF) – Available in 75% of ESPN and 67% of Yahoo leagues

·         Since August 2^nd – 87 ABs – 4 HRs – 11 RBI – 13 Runs – 1 SB - .322 AVG

Boring. But performing better than the Zobrist.

Jose Lopez (FLA – 2B, 3B) – Available in 83% of ESPN and 97% of Yahoo leagues

·         Since August 16^th – 55 ABs – 5 HR – 12 RBI – 9 Runs – 0 SB - .364 AVG

Another boring Marlin… but with more pop. He recently tweaked his hamstring, so be careful.

Ramon Santiago (DET – 2B, SS) – Available in 99% of ESPN and 97% of Yahoo leagues

·         Since August 14^th – 66 ABs – 4 HR – 15 RBI – 11 Runs – 0 SB - .303 AVG

The little sparkplug could jumpstart your roster.

Outfield - This guy is hurting you: Chris B. Young (ARI – OF)

·         Before July 15^th: 355 ABs – 16 HR – 50 RBI – 59 Runs – 12 SB - .262 AVG

·         Since July 15^th: 164 ABs – 3 HR – 14 RBI – 19 Runs – 7 SB - .152 AVG

Wow. I have Young on my FGD Writers vs. Readers team and I knew he wasn’t doing all that great lately. But, damn… I didn’t realize that it was this bad. I feel that I am not alone as he is owned in 97% of ESPN and 85% of Yahoo leagues. I’ve read conflicting reports on a wrist issue or a ligament issue. I really don’t care what is causing the suck… I just want to get rid of it.

Drop Chris B Young for one of these guys:

David Murphy (TEX – OF) – Available in 47% of ESPN and 64% of Yahoo leagues.

·         Since August 26^th – 53 ABs – 4 HR – 18 RBI – 11 Runs – 2 SB - .415 AVG

Some might say that he will lose playing time when Cruz comes back. Some might also say that Murphy is raking now, why bench him?

Dexter Fowler (COL – OF) – Available in 54% of ESPN and 71% of Yahoo leagues.

·         Since August 3^rd – 140 ABs – 4 HR – 13 RBI – 27 Runs – 4 SB - .286 AVG

He has really been coming on recently (3 HR – 4 RBI – 8 Runs – 1 SB - .412 AVG in his last 8 games). Get him before someone else in your league does.

Alejandro De Aza (CWS – OF) – Available in 70% of ESPN and 95% of Yahoo leagues

·         Since August 16^th – 71 ABs – 3 HR – 14 RBI – 12 Runs – 4 SB - .324 AVG

Get your De Aza off the couch and pick him up!

Corner Infield - This guy is hurting you: Mitch Moreland (TEX – 1B,OF)

·         Before July 31^st: 321 ABs – 13 HR – 33 RBI – 43 Runs – 2 SB - .274 AVG – 24.7 AB/HR

·         Since July 31^st: 119 ABs – 3 HR – 16 RBI – 16 Runs – 0 SB - .244 AVG – 39.7 AB/HR

Those of you that thought Mitch was on pace to hit 25+ homeruns need to re-evaluate. He may not even get to 20 if he keeps up his current pace. Call me old school, but I like to see the longballs coming from my corner infield positions. I’m also willing to sacrifice a little average to do so. Probably strange only to me fact: Moreland is owned in 83% of ESPN leagues but only 36% of Yahoo leagues.  Maybe someone can explain that one to me?

Drop Mitch Moreland for one of these guys:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI – 1B) – Available in 91% of ESPN and 93% of Yahoo leagues.

·         Since being called up on Aug 1^st – 109 ABs – 7 HR – 20 RBI – 19 Runs – 3 SB - .257 AVG – 15.6 AB/HR

I’m still bitter on losing out on him in FGD NL-Only league.  In 315 career minor league games, he batted .317 with 83 dingers. That’s Gold, Jerry. GOLD!

Nick Evans (NYM 1B,OF) – Available in 89% of ESPN and 97% of Yahoo leagues.

·         Since taking over at fulltime at 1B on August 23^rd – 66 ABs – 3 HR – 14 RBI – 9 Runs – 0 SB - .318 AVG – 22.0 AB/HR

Not the greatest AB/HR, but it is better than Moreland’s was before his suck-tastic  second half.

Danny Valencia (MIN – 3B) – Available in 78% of ESPN and 77% of Yahoo leagues.

·         Since August 20^th – 65 ABs – 3 HR – 8 RBI – 12 Runs – 0 SB - .277 AVG – 21.7 AB/HR

Again, not the best AB/HR but better than Moreland’s.

Whew. If you are like me, you just finished a week of fantasy football drafts. My focus has been on the fantasy football draft prep which has allowed me just enough time to set my lineups daily in baseball. Now that my football drafts are over I can refocus my attention back on baseball where I am in the hunt in two of the five leagues I’m in. Two of the other three leagues are keeper leagues and I’m focusing on getting my squad in place for 2012.

Surprise, surprise! These are of few of the somewhat under the radar pitchers that can help you out this week.

Ivan Nova:Did you know he has 15 wins? He also has won 8 straight starts, and even when he had a rough outing in which he gave up 7 runs, that Yankee lineup bailed him out. Maybe that trip to AAA woke him up. His ERA sits at around 4, but the way he is pitching, he is making a great case to be the Yankees number 2 starter in the playoffs, and he should be pitching for you to get you one step closer to that Championship.

Randy Wells.Besides the fact that he has a cool first name, over his last 15 plus innings he has racked up 2 wins, a complete game, walked only 3 and struck out 13. He pitches against the lowly Pirates today, which should help build his confidence and keep his recent hot streak alive. With this Cubbie, going to the Wells tough often is a good idea.

Gio Gonzalez.He is maddening to own but draws the Royals this upcoming week, which isn’t a bad deal. He could give you 7 plus innings with 8 or 9 K’s, or throw 100 pitches and barely get through the 4^th with a ton of walks. I’ll take the gamble on Gio, he has won his last 3 starts and the Athletic’s lineup has been doing a good job of plating a few runs to back up their solid staff.

Zach Britton.Wonderful start to the year, horrific middle, sent down to AAA, now back to show, and draws the task to face the Yankees in New York this week. Call it a gut feeling, but I think he passes that test and surprises a few people. He beat the Yankees the last time he faced them, but this time in that bandbox stadium, he will need to have his sinker working overtime and rack up the K’s and groundballs. I’m thinking 7 innings, 2 runs, 7 K’s, 3 walks; I’ll take that to the bank.

Kevin Millwood.He is still in the league? He pitched 7 scoreless with 8 k’s last time out? Was that in AA? Wow. He gets to face the hot hitting D-Backs this week, but on a whim, why not take a chance on an inning eater with a solid lineup behind him. Is this guy like 50 years old? This just goes to show you why the National league is ridiculous, Kevin couldn’t start for any AL team, and yet he is throwing very well in the NL. Man, I hate the fact that pitchers bat, no relevance here, just venting.

Bruce Chen.The Chen-master got hit a little bit by my Tribe the last time he took the mound, but who wouldn’t with those bats… Anyways, he gets the A’s on Wednesday, and he has had success against them this year. Bruce did have 9 K’s on the 23rd against the Blue Jays, so there is a possible diamond in the rough outing up his sleeve.

Jon Danks: He took a beating his lat time out, but has been pitching much better as of late. He gets the tiny hitting Twins this week, and that is about as easy as it gets, unless Trevor Plouffe continues his crazy past few games (of course I am playing him in a HTH points league in a week that is about as close to a must win as there is with only 1 week left and a 1 game cushion that I am sitting on.) Danks has the skill set to go the distance at any time and he has seemed to put his terrible start behind him and he can focus on padding his stats against Minnesota.

Best of luck to all.

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Fave 5. Do you remember the old Barkley and Wade commercials, where you could only have 5 unlimited buddies? Yes, that was when Wade and the Heat weren't hated, and cell phone plans were still in their infancy. My idea is, I will give you my fave 5, my top 5 locks, can't miss, no brainer, mark it as good as gold in your calendars. 
 

1. Justin Verlander. Even though he is going up against the mighty Nieman in his first of two starts this week, he is the one they call Verlander. Tales of his prowess come down from many generations, the man who can throw 100 pitches in his sleep, the one who hits 100 mph in the 14th inning, the arm that will get Aybar back. Seriously, he is Justin Credible, and there is a chance that every time he steps up to the mound you could be watching history in the making. Tampa and Minnesota are not the Yankees and the Sox, so those hitters may mysteriously come down with flu like symptoms or end up in walking boots for no apparent reason just to skip out on the embarrassment. 

2. Matt Cain. San Diego and Houston. Yeah, it really doesn't get much better than that. If I were a betting man, which I am, I would put up a lot of jellybeans on the under of 3 total runs given up in those starts combined. Maybe I’ll parlay that bet with the fact that he will go at least 7 innings in both, and rack up more k's than innings pitched. 9 K's in 6 innings the last time he faced the Padres, and he hasn't had the luck to play against the AAA-stros, but a line of 8 innings 11 k's sounds about right. 

3. Johnny Cueto. 9-5 with a 1.89 ERA. That is including the aberrational start against the Cubs where he gave up 5 runs in 3 2/3rd innings. Johnny on the spot almost had a complete game shutout last time he played the Nats, and he gets them again on his second start of the week. Before that though, he has some fishing to do, so get your trophy shelf cleared off, Cueto's bringin in a Marlin. Just pitch around Stanton, since all he does is hit long bombs. 

4. Zach Greinke. His K rate is up and hs ERA is down close to the 2's in the last few months. If Zach can steer clear of basketball courts, he will be a slam dunk this week. 2 starts, against the hapless Pirates and the Cubs who are still searching for a GM to take over that talent starved roster. The Brewers are rolling as of late and Mr. Greinke is driving their souped up Low Rider. Chalk him up for around 15 innings, 19 Ks, and 2 or fewer runs this wonderful week. 

5. Justin Masterson. I know that I am skipping some deserving candidates, but this Justin needs more love. In 16 starts since 7/1/11, he has not given up more than 4 runs in a start, racked up solid strikeout numbers, but gotten little to no run support. He draws the Mariners and Blake Beaven on Tuesday in Cleveland, and after the Tribe blew it tonight, this homestand is crucial. He will bring his “A” game, pitch into the 8th inning, strike out at least 7, and get a well-deserved win. Jobu has spoken; now get me some more of that rum...
Best of luck!

You can follow Fantasy Gameday on Twitter (@fantasy_gameday) and Facebook.  Don’t forget about our twitter contest. If you have any question regarding your Fantasy Baseball teams, feel free to contact us directly, and we will help you in a timely manner

So this is my return, but to be honest this is my second attempt at this very article, just about half way through my first attempt my laptop decided to turn itself off and undo all my research and hard work so needless to say I'm upset about that. Well it's been a long time since my last article, alot or things have happened since my last appearance, Logan Morrison was sent to Triple A, Brian Wilson sprained his beard or something like that, Mike Carp has made me feel like an idiot for not grabbing him the FGD AL only league, Dan Uggla had himself a tidy 33 game hit streak, but his average still isn't great. Jacoby Ellsbury has made himself a top 3 OF, and Carl Crawford an after thought. Albert Pujols has shamed those that spoke blasphemies of his decline, Freddie Freeman has created a legend that grows by the day...well in my eyes at least. And I've missed sitting down and popping out this article. So here we go, I hope that I can finish it and submit before my computer zonks out again.

Catchers-

The past couple of weeks two tweeners- Kurt Suzuki, and Russell Martin - have out produced scuttling studs like Joe Mauer and Miguel Montero. The following stats are a comparison of their work over the past month.

• Mauer- 14 R, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .250 AVG
• Montero- 9 R, 1 HR, 14 RBI, .244 AVG

• Martin- 16 R, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 1 SB, .265 AVG
• Suzuki- 12 R, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB, .257 AVG

Odds are that you wouldn't want to roster two catchers at once, but some times your team could use the extra production from your catcher slot.

Corner Infield-

Paul Goldschmidt- Any batter with decent pop is worth keeping an eye on when they play half of their games at Chase Stadium. Over the past 15 days Goldie put up 6 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .289 AVG, which points to his upside as a potential keeper in deeper leagues or salary leagues in which Goldschmidt - 10.3% Owned- can likely be had for a buck. For wise owners now would be the time to invest in his stock.

Brandon Allen- Well it finally looks like he's made his MLB impact and will be up for a while. He's batting .407 over the past 15 days along with 7 R and 2 RBI. For years Allen has been a power tease in the minor leagues, whose biggest draw back has been a penchant for racking up strike outs. But given that the Oakland A's have little power in their lineup they may be willing to take a .250-.260 AVG in exchange for 25-30 HR from a corner infielder, something that the A's have been sorely lacking for years. Like Goldschmidt, Allen is a player to watch in deep keeper leagues with a low price tag.

Chipper Jones- I'm going to cheat because Chipper is owned in 54% of Leagues, but come on he's my boy, and he's been healthy for a couple weeks so he's been hitting. To the tune of 7 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .405 AVG, yeah he's a beast. He's not much a keeper candidate but we do know that his job at the hot corner in Atlanta is secure until he decides to hang 'em up. 

Middle Infield-

Orlando Hudson- I don't care how old the guy is, or what he's done in the past to prove that he's a mediocre commodity, but when he's put up 13 R, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, .370 AVG over the past two weeks, he deserves more love then 16.8% ownership. Pick him up if you're running Aaron Hill or Gordan Beckham out in your MI slot, day after day.

Jose Altuve- I'll admit it, I don't know a whole lot about Altuve but his 13 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, ..339 AVG have made me take notice. If your team is struggling and looking for a spark, mining the waiver wire this late in the season means that you can't be picky when it comes to making speculative plays. As it looks now Altuve will be a contributor in the R and SB departments. For now grab him if you have a void at MI, to see if he establishes himself as an everyday player for 2012.

Ryan Raburn- This is based entirely on situation, not talent anymore. Carlos Guillen is injured again, and someone has to get the AB,well someone aside from Don Kelly. So Jim Leyland has stuck Raburn at the keystone and he's responded with 4 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .273 AVG over the past 15. Not great, but a clear indication that his sleeper value is all extinguished. For the remainder of the season he's worth keeping an eye on, but a player that I'm going to ignore next season.

Outfield-

Dexter Fowler- Please, please can the stats stay? For years managers have been clamoring for him to receive every day AB in hopes that he would become a 100 R, 20 SB monster. Well it appears that the Rockies are  willing to giving the speedster enough rope to hang himself him. As long as he can keep the strikeouts in check he should be able to pick up 80 R in a full season season, but given that he's struggled with consistency, and injuries throughout his career he likely wont be able produce up to previous expectations, and the bar may be lowered in coming seasons.

Kyle Blanks- Jump on the ship quickly before it leaves the harbor and you miss out. Over the past 15 days he's put up 12 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .373 AVG, those are the stats that have led him to be a late round sleeper pick for the previous two years. Right now, despite his production his value is low because the hype has seemingly disappeared. I've bought into the stats and the post hype sleeper, and so should, after all he's a fantastic keeper for those in deeper leagues, especially considering he's eligible at 1b and OF.

Peter Bourjos- Mike Trout hasn't affected the speedsters playing time as he's posted 11 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB .373 AVG over the past 15 days. The power has been unexpected of late, as his 3 HR over the past 15 days represent nearly half of his 7 on the season. Like Blanks he represents a solid keeper option in deep leagues as he's owned in just 17.2% of leagues and wouldn't require much of an investment. That will change come draft day 2012.

JD Martinez- Proof that even historically bad teams can have some fantasy impact. Martinez has been good over the past 15 posting 11 R, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .241 AVG during that stretch. His average isn't going to help you out much the rest of the way, but given that hes been a near constant in the third spot in the lineup for the 'Stros he'll get plenty of opportunities to compile R and RBI.

Pitchers-

Mike Minor- The Braves pitching staff is arguably the top in the league from top to bottom, and the organizational depth is just as good with, many high upside arms throughout the season. Minor is just one of them. Over his past 3 starts he's put up 20 K in 17.1 IP while surrendering 7 ER.  More impressively he's given just 4 free passes in his last 3 starts. He still has tremendous upside and is a solid keeper play in deep leagues. His next start is in Chicago and he probably need another strong start in order to avoid losing his spot in the starting rotation when ace Tommy Hanson returns from the DL.

Charlie Morton- The key to good teams is strong pitching, well the Pirates are slowly getting there and Charlie Morton is leading the charge. Over his past 4 stars he's surrendered just 3 ER. Yeah 3 ER for a Pirates starter. Throw in 18 K and 8 BB, in 28.1 IP and you've got yourself a budding fantasy star. As the Pirates continue to mature their staff anchored by Morton and James MacDonald, will be at the forefront.

If you have any questions of who to pick up, who to drop, who to keep, leave them in the comments section below.