| Merry Christmas to the White Sox! |
| Written by Bill Galvin |
| Friday, 10 December 2010 00:13 |
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It’s December and ‘tis the Season! The hot stove is boiling down in Lake Buena Vista, Florida and the pitching staffs of the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals are the pudding. Such is life in the A.L. Central. When you look at the Royal’s lineup and Zack Greinke’s run support, is it any wonder he wants to be traded?
The Tigers and White Sox have both improved their lineups this off season. Minnesota is certainly no slouch having won the A.L. Central while Justin Morneau was on the disabled list. Depending on the schedule it is possible the Royal’s and Indian’s pitching staffs could spend 9-12 consecutive days facing lineups of Magglio Ordonez (assuming Detroit re-signs him), Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez followed by Minnesota’s M&M Brothers Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and finally Chicago’s Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and Alex Rios. Those lineups sort of resemble the baseball equivalent of the ghosts of Christmas past, present and future. Of these three teams, the White Sox have made the most significant commitment and improvement. Adam Dunn signed a four year deal for $56M and Paul Konerko held out hope long enough to get a third year for a $37.5M payout. One thing is true in baseball. Teams pay for consistency. Dunn got a nice big pay day because he has hit 38 or more home runs for seven consecutive seasons. He has hit at least 100 RBI in all but one of the past seven seasons. And lastly, his OPS has never been less than .855 in that time span. Now, put Adam Dunn’s home run consistency in U.S. Cellular Park and you have the makings of a big donkey season! The only hiccup is how he deals with A.L. pitchers as Dunn has never played in the American League. Ozzie Guillen is already quoted as saying he wants Dunn to bat third so he gets more at bats. Look for some tinkering during the season. If Gordon Beckham lives up to some of his expectations and Juan Pierre gets into scoring position with his speed, look for Dunn to have a whopper season at U.S. Cellular. Prediction: Dunn has his first 50 HR / 125 RBI season while batting .255 in ‘donkey-esque’ fashion. He should continue to have multiple position eligibility at 1B and OF and eventually DH for those AL Only leagues. Personally, I think he is a top 50 pick in most fantasy drafts. Now, let’s look at Konerko aka Dunn’s ‘insurance man.’ The 35 year old first baseman Konerko is known as the leader of the Chisox clubhouse. He is coming off a great year, possibly a career year, after batting .312 with 39 HR, 111 RBI and an .977 OPS. Just think if he was one year older, batted .270 with only 10 HR and played short stop for the Yankees this captain could have got another $14million! I will leave my ‘angry Yankee’ jokes aside for now. The White Sox did the right thing signing Konerko. Not only would he leave a void in their clubhouse, but with Carlos Pena, Derek Lee and Adam LaRoche left on the market, the pickings were getting slim at first base. Yes, Adam Dunn can play first base. But Dunn is going to DH more often and is needed to play the outfield when Carlos Quentin takes his DL trips. With Dunn potentially slotted third, presumably Konerko and Rios will follow. At first glance some of the pressure is taken off Konerko. Rios provides protection for Konerko from pitchers. But, hitting behind Dunn might also take some of the shine off of Konerko’s production. If power hitting Dunn clears the bases, that means a reduction in RBI’s for Konerko. And how many times does a pitcher give up two dingers in a row? It will be interesting to see how Ozzie Guillen lines up Dunn, Konerko and Rios amongst the 3-5 holes. More worrisome are Konerko’s own recent comments about how he worked during the 2009-10 off season to position himself for this off season (contract negotiations). He never used the phrase ‘contract year,’ but I am. No doubt Konerko wants to win. But, now he has his pay day and Adam Dunn to carry the work load. Prediction: Konerko has never been an ideal model of offensive consistency. 2010 was near his high water marks in many categories. Look for a 25 HR / 85 RBI season with a down-to-earth .285 average. He is a top fifteen first baseman, but don’t get fooled into over paying in 2011 based on 2010 stats. “I am as light as a feather, I am as happy as an angel, I am as merry as a school-boy. I am as giddy as a drunken man. A merry Christmas to everybody!” -Ebenezer Scrooge, A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens.
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Comments
When you can automatically pencil in 38+ hr your power numbers are good condition.
However I wouldn't be looking forward to a 50+ hr season this year. After all he did play all those seasons in Cincy and he never hit that many there. I'd cap him at 45. Which would likely lead the AL.
And lets not forget the absurd amount of walks that he takes, Paulie will still have plenty of RBI chances, whether it be from Dunn's walks, or Dunn's Ks there will likely be runners on base for Konerko.
If you're in AL only leagues you may want to try to land both of these guys in your draft as their production is dependant- to an extent- on one another.