Thursday, May 17, 2012
2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 3 Review
Written by Kelly Pfleiger   
Wednesday, 04 January 2012 10:22

2012 fantasy baseball mock draftAs I have previously discussed, there are several useful strategies that are employed during the second round of a Fantasy Baseball draft.  The most popular strategy is pairing up players such as a power hitter with a player with speed.

But what strategies should you use during the third round?

During the third round, the core players are still being assembled, therefore, taking in account what positions you have already drafted is key.  One sensible approach in the early rounds is to shore up positions you’re not confident you can fill in later rounds. If you’ve got a boat load of sleepers at OF but none at 3B, for example, you might want to use an early pick on Adrian Beltre or Ryan Zimmerman.

Who was selected during the 3rd round of our annual Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft?

1) Tom Liszka Tim Lincecum SP - SF
2) Greg Sullivan Matt Holliday OF - STL
3) Dan Kercher Starlin Castro SS - CHC
4) Joshua Feiger Adrian Beltre 3B - TEX
5) Scot Nesbihak CC Sabathia SP - NYY
6) Mike Lester Mike Napoli C - TEX
7) Scott Niemisto Jered Weaver SP - LAA
8) Yoram Batner Carl Crawford OF - BOS
9) Marc Rogovin Shin-Soo Choo OF - CLE
10) Tad Blooth David Price SP - TB
11) Daniel Schwartz Desmond Jennings OF - TB
12) Brett Barton Dan Uggla 2B - ATL
13) Joel Henard Hunter Pence OF - PHI
14) Tim McLeod Brett Lawrie 3B - TOR
15) Scott Gilroy Ben Zobrist 2B/OF - TB
16) Markus Potter Ryan Zimmerman 3B - WAS

 

While I tend to be conservative during the first five rounds of a draft, two owners reached out for second year players; Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings. Neither player can be considered to be a sleeper, but it is way too early to select a second year player. The odds of them struggling are quite high.

But let’s look at them objectively.

Brett Lawrie plays at a premier (and extremely shallow) position in Fantasy Baseball.  While the hot corner is usually reserved for power hitters with limited mobility, Lawrie brings a speed element that is rare. He also showed signs of a decent approach at the plate (.373 OBP) with good power (.287 ISO) and a .293 batting average.  I can complain all day long about selecting a player with only 171 plate appearances during the third round, however, with the dearth at third base, I understand why Brett Lawrie was selected.

Desmond Jennings finally made it to the show in 2011, and certainly impressed with his performance. There are no questions regarding the long-term potential of Jennings.  Statistically speaking, there is nothing that should deter anyone from drafting Desmond Jennings in 2012. In fact he “should” produce quite well as the leadoff hitter for the Rays.  It’s the word “should” that bothers me.  Brett Lawrie “should” be a top 5 third baseman.  Desmond Jennings “should” be the next Carl Crawford. The fact is… They have not had enough plate appearances at the major league level for me to recommend drafting either of them during the third round of a 16-team draft.

Shin-Soo Choo had a rough season in 2011 and managed to play in only 85 games. I will be honest; I thought he would have fallen deeper into the draft.  Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with where he was drafted. In a league with walks, Shin-Soo Choo has more value. After a crappy year, I was expecting him to be drafted around 50 spots later. This is why we do mock drafts.

2012 Fantasy Baseball mock draftRyan Zimmerman was Markus’ first offensive selection (after Halladay and Kershaw) of the draft.  While I am intrigued about Markus’ strategy, I would rather talk about why Ryan Zimmerman is a steal at this selection. Much like Choo, injuries (only 101 games played) curbed the overall potential of Zimmerman in 2011. It is interesting to note that Ryan Zimmerman’s 2008 season was just as bad as 2011.  Injuries prevented him from appearing in more than 106 games, and all of his power numbers were down. In 2009, Zimmerman hit 33 home runs with 106 RBIs, and 110 runs scored while hitting .292 for the season. Ryan Zimmerman’s 2011 peripheral stats (9.3 BB%, 16.6 K%, .355 OBP) are extremely close to his career totals, and are better than his 2008 season.  If the Nationals are truly the front runner for Prince Fielder, the potential for the 27 year-old Zimmerman is huge in 2012.

After a disappointing 2010, Ben Zobrist returned to fantasy prominence in 2011. Even without the elite on base percentage (.353 in ’11 vs. .405 on ’09) Zobrist is one of the better selections at the second base position. I would look for another 20/20 season Ben Zobrist and the position flexibility (2B/OF) helps as well. I must admit, Scott did a nice job of assembling the core of his team with Jose Reyes, Mark Teixeira, and Ben Zobrist.

Finally, I have no issues with any of the starting pitcher selected during this round.  In fact, I still have an unhealthy man-crush on Timmy.  You know… the kind of man-crush that allows me to call him by his first name.

In 2011 Starlin Castro became the youngest player in Cubs history to reach 200 hits in a season. However, I still do not like him as a baseball player, and after a seven minute rant, Bobby Valentine agrees with me.  Despite my dislike for how Castro plays the game, I am still on the fence regarding his Fantasy Baseball value. I was not overly impressed with his counting stats (10 HR, 22 SB), but the two straight seasons of hitting around the .300 mark increase his long term potential. Eh, I need to watch him more in 2012.

3 burning question for the third round

  1. Are there specific strategies you like to use during the third round of a draft?
  2. Are you buying into Desmond Jennings and Brett Lawrie being top 50 players in 2012, or are you avoiding them?
  3. Do you agree with Bobby Valentine’s perspective on the play of Starlin Castro?

Bring on the comments…

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Comments 

 
#6 Ivar Anderson 2012-01-09 15:50
In the third round, I am generally looking for either a stud OF if I've gone If with my first two picks, or if I have a top OF in the first two rounds, then I am looking for a power/speed combo IF. no SPs for me until a few rounds (or more) later.
Knowing the guys drafting at the turn here, if Tim hadn't grabbed Lawrie when he did, he would most likely not have snagged him. I, though, agree that the third round is too early to take the risk on either Lawrie or Jennings. I am all about minimizing risk in the early rounds of any draft. Then again, I. Unread myself repeatedly last year with Stubbs and even worse, Dunn in the early (3-4) rounds, so take my advice with a block of salt.
Bobby Valentine needs to take a pill and relax. There are young players that need to mature (I'm lookin at you, Delmon Young) but this is just foolish.
 
 
#5 Yoram, pick 8 2012-01-09 08:19
Usually, in round 3 of a draft I'm still targeting what I believe to be the best-available player. If my first two picks have similar talents then I may look for a more complementary player, but generally I'm happy to try and do that with later picks and just stick to talent in round 3.

Jennings and Lawrie are both very exciting players. Outside of a keeper league I won't be going anywhere near them with a top-50 pick. Both have the talent and opportunity to produce, but spending a top-50 pick means that these players have to produce at a very high level or they will be disappointments . I prefer to build some risk-aversion into my sophomores, which usually means they are selected long before I'm willing to take them.
 
 
#4 Kelly 2012-01-04 20:47
Daniel... Once again my only issue is your use of the word "will". Yes, Desmond Jennings will produce like you want him too, but the odds are that it will not be this season.

There are other players that will provide a combination of power and speed. Adam Jones comes to mind. Add two Adam Jones type players with a Michael Bourn and you might end up in a abetter position with less risk of failure.

I want to be very clear, I am all in on Desmond Jennings being a top tier talent. I am very adverse to risk (unforeseen injuries excluded) in the first five rounds.
 
 
#3 Daniel Schwartz 2012-01-04 19:07
Excellent Kelly. Agree with your point for the most part regarding sophomores after great 100-200 at bat campaigns. While you can correlate their success to the minors i think Lawrie was drafted based on position scarcity and I can confirm that i drafted Jennings based on your "2nd round strategy." I had to pair his speed with Fielder's power & an ace in Verlander

Desmond Jennings will also provide some value in the HR (12-18) & BB (65-75) departments in addition to his R & SB. If i drafted a Kemp/Upton/Gonzalez type with some speed prior, i wouldn't have gone the Jennings route. I did so to pair with Fielder

I don't mind the 100-15-60-50 potential ahead of Upton, Longoria, & Zobrist

Re: 3b, there were still solid options: Zimm, Arod, Sandoval, Aramis, & a healthy Youkilis - obviously some good choices & upside. What utter speed with power combos did i have left: Upton? Rollins? I like Upton but wanted the other peripherals
 
 
#2 Brett Barton 2012-01-04 19:02
I had the same happy feeling as Josh when I was able to scoop up Uggla at my MI slot. I now had Pedroia and Uggla at 2B and MI. No one in this league will come CLOSE to the production at their 2B and MI spots that these two players will put up for my squad. I personally ranked Pedroia and Uggla 2&3 at 2B this year so I felt that I not only limited the field per se but also dominated at a position as well.

As far as Jennings and Lawrie they call it a sophomore slump for a reason...Geovanni Soto, Pedro Alvarez, Jason Heyward, Gordon Beckham.
 
 
#1 Josh Feiger 2012-01-04 15:38
I was REALLY happy pairing David Wright in the 2nd with Adrian Beltre in the 3rd. Having these two corner infield slots filled up, knowing that I had somewhat depleted the already weak 3rd base pool helped me fill out my roster in a surprising way. I was not expecting Beltre to still be there at pick #36.

Jennings and Lawrie are too raw for me. Two words: Jason Hayward.
 

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