Underachievement is part of the game, real and fantasy. Sometimes it’s an injury, including hiding it or returning too early from the DL. Obvious 2011 infirmary busts included Utley, ARod, Youk, HanRam, Mauer, Morneau, Figgins, Wright, Choo, Holliday, Zimmerman, Heyward, Posey —and that’s just the hitters.

Often they’re victims of aging, the inevitable acceleration of skills erosion: Ichiro Suzuki, Jimmy Rollins, or Chone Figgins are perfect examples. Occasionally we overrate a player, usually because he over-achieved the previous year (Frenchy and the Melk-man —sounds like a ‘80s bad sitcom, doesn’t it?—are likely 2012 bust candidates) or the hype machine escalates expectation (witness Jason Heyward, Pedro Alvarez, Travis Snider, Colby Rasmus, Domonic Brown… who might yet achieve stardom given the perfect storm of pedigrees, organizational patience and opportunity).

These players often make fine targets the following year, especially when their track records suggest a rebound. Examples from last season include Jacoby Ellsbury, Lance Berkman and Josh Beckett (to throw in a pitcher). Not to mention perennial post-hype candidates like Matt Wieters, Alex Gordon, and J.J. Hardy or surprises like Emilio Bonifacio (though regression cuts both ways—meaning a breakout player could revert to crappy norms). Here are two Pale Stockings who made owners blanch in 2011 but should out-earn their current mock ADPs.

Adam Dunn

Sometimes there’s no apparent explanation for a player’s plunge into mediocrity —or worse. Plaintiff’s Exhibit #1, the 2011 Poster Boy for Ron Shandler’s “alien abduction” theory : Adam Dunn. Expected to crush in rocket-pad U.S. Cellular, having averaged 40 HR and 101 RBI from 2004-10, he crashed. Is Dunn —forgive the obvious pun —done, having posted arguably the single worst season in baseball history (anemic .159 AVG in 450 plate appearances)? His epic collapse culminated with Ozzie demoting him to part-time status (possibly to save him from the ignominy of the record books since with six more appearances his 42.7% K rate would have broken Mark Reynolds’ 42.3%). Not even past “three true outcomes” kings like Rob Deer, Pete Incaviglia, and Gorman Thomas matched those putrid stats.

His final slash line, .159/.292/.277, represented a career low in each stat;his previous career worst OPS (in 2003) was .250 higher. Defining “easy out,” he failed to draw an intentional walk for the first time. He proved particularly pathetic against southpaws, batting .064/.235/.074 with six hits in 94 ABs and looked lost against breaking stuff, flailing weakly at changes and splitters, though he completely lost it against heaters which he normally punishes. Shockingly his slugging percentage precipitously plunged from .536 to .277 and his ISO from .276 to .118.

Various theories have been floated for this utter breakdown. Some batters don’t adjust to the transition between leagues or switch to full-time DH. Many sluggers claim this reduces mental acuity, though Dunn actually performed worse when he played the field. Still, new manager Robin Ventura promises to give him more time at 1B and LF. Others cite his admittedly poor offseason conditioning or the springtime appendectomy.

Underlying peripherals suggest that Dunn might have been pressing to live up to his $56 million payday. Indeed, perhaps he overcompensated in his 2010 contract year as well, possibly flashing some warning signs. The last two seasons Dunn swung at far more pitches outside the zone — roughly 27% — than ever before, and swung through at a higher rate. These trends actually improved slightly in 2011 from 2010, as did his still-low contact, which has remained fairly steady throughout his career. He averaged a 26.5% strikeout rate and a 17.1% walk rate 2002-09, but in 2010 deteriorated to 30.7% strikeouts and 11.9% walks. Last season he rediscovered some patience (15.1 BB%) but his K% continued tanking (35.7); overall his BB:K rate improved slightly. His GB/FB/LD rates stayed more or less in line with his career numbers.

The differences were BABIP (.240 compared to .329 in 2010, .292 career) and HR/FB rate (a shocking 9.6%, 21.3 in 2010 and 21.4 career). Coupled with a respectable 20% LD rate both suggest rotten luck and, seemingly, a bounceback in 2012. Still, that ISO and the fact that many flyballs were actually popups are worrisome. Players of, um, generous bulk often deteriorate suddenly (Mo Vaughan, Travis Hafner).

Was 2011 the outlier? Are we Dunn-derheads to consider it a fluke? Skill slippage is likely, but his age and home-park work in his favor (his mammoth contract suggests he won’t ride the pine for long either, giving him a chance to work through further struggles). His BA will always be a drain but there’s no reason he can’t go from sluggish to slugger-ish. Considering he’s dropping beyond the 18^th-20^th round in Expert and MDC drafts, he’s worth the speculation.

Alex Rios

Big Donkey wasn’t the only ass on the White Sox from a fantasy perspective. Alex Rios rewarded his top-60 ADP with a line of 64/13/44/.227/11, logging career worsts in average, steals, OBP, SLG, and walk rate, as well as his lowest Isolated Power (tumbling from .173 to .126), HRs, HR/FB rate and RBI since his rookie season. Now Rios may be the most maddeningly inconsistent player around, posting roller-coaster numbers from year to year, but even including that .227 average his career mark is .275. The kicker was a .237 BABIP, the second worst in baseball and .69 lower than his 2010 and career figures.

Putting aside his pathetic .613 OPS, his batted ball and plate discipline profiles reveal some promising numbers. While he cut back on his strikeout rate, his BB% also declined to a mere 4.7% though his overall BB:K of 0.39 roughly matches his career output. His GB/FB/LD rates remained in line with his career norms; he even raised his LD% slightly and reversed a three-year trend of rising GB percentages. He did chase more pitches out of the zone, but not by an insane amount. Meanwhile, he made good contact, the best mark of his career, slightly above league average at 86.7%.

Indeed, it’s possible that Rios compensated for a nagging toe injury by focusing on making contact, which often results in lower power numbers (sluggers usually K more). Fewer ABs as well as less on-base time makes his HR and SB totals seems far worse, not unlike Carl Crawford’s situation.

Like Craw, Rios is too young (31 come Opening Day) for an irreversible decline. Both players suffer from poor pitch selection and impatience, exacerbated by pressing in 2011. Unlike Crawford, his SB efficiency is questionable, though a BABIP bounce would provide more opportunities. Rios might consider altering his approach to increase loft in his swing, otherwise he’ll never again exceed 20 homers.

Those believing in September numbers have reason for optimism (.307/.341/.533, five HRs). Whether that translates is another story. And bear in mind that Rios has never put together an entire superb season, save arguably for 2010; he’s always faltered for lengthy stretches. Still, the combination of better contact and regression from a career-low BABIP suggests 2012 improvement. And as far as intangibles such as “needs confidence” or a “change in scenery,” Robin Ventura rather than the hotheaded Ozzie at the helm might supply a spark. Right now his perceived value couldn’t be lower; he’s also being drafted around the 19^th-20^th round on MDC. That makes him, like Dunn, a bona fide sleeper. While 25/25 or even 20/20 are unlikely, 15/15 with a decent AVG at pick 200 or $1-2 would be money in the bank.

Are you planning on draft either Dunn or Rios in 2012?  Tell us your plans in the comments section.  I promise we won't tell your leaguemates. 

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