The Texas Rangers have signed Yu Darvish to a 6 year, 60 million dollar contract.  Add in the 51 million dollar posting fee, and Yu Darvish becomes the most expensive right-handed pitcher in baseball.  

But what does this mean for Fantasy Baseball?

I asked the same question to one esteemed writer here at Fantasy Gameday.  Below is the email corespondance between ordan Simon and myslefy regarding whther or not you should draft Yu Darvish in Fantasy Baseball drafts during 2012.

Warning: This is long and filled with a ton of information.  Only serious readers can handle it.

Kelly: As you are well aware, Cody is a huge Texas Rangers fan. So image my excitement when I was able to tell him that his beloved Texas Rangers spent 51.7 million dollars to win the negotiating rights to Yu Darvish. To which he responded, “Wow, that is a ton of money, and who is Hew Darvish?” I responded by informing Cody that he was a very good pitcher coming over from Japan.

And that is all that he is... a really good pitcher coming over from Japan.

Now, before you start eloquently informing me that he is the best pitcher ever, and is a guaranteed top of the rotation talent, let me say this... So was Daisuke Matsuzaka. While I will attempt to remain open minded, I cannot back an unknown commodity and advice our readers to draft Yu Darvish in 2012. There is not an overwhelming track record of success for Japanese pitchers in the major leagues. In fact, only 43 Japanese born players have reached the major leagues in the entire history of baseball. The entire history of baseball.

There are just too many variables and unknowns with players coming from other countries and being inserted at the major league level. I want at least some certainty when I draft players. Unfortunately, the lack of a successful history at the major league level (especially for pitchers), encourages me to allow the inherent risk rest on someone else's roster.

Jordan: Ah, how fickle these youngins be. And his dad bleeding Phillies red. Maybe once the Phils poach Darvish à la Cliff Lee you'll think differently, Kel.

Look, I also tend to be risk-averse until the late rounds, especially with pitchers. But assuming the Rangers and Yu-know-who reach an agreement, I'd certainly advise drafting Darvish. My caveat is that the price tag (whether in auction or snake drafts) will probably be too high, especially in keeper leagues.

As for performance, sure there are variables, intangibles, and X factors up the wazoo (whatever the hell a wazoo is). There always are with rookies, and that's what he is, after all.

Yes, Japanese imports (pitchers not cars) spot a downright undistinguished record. Only three registered at least three league-average –or better –seasons (roughly two Wins above Replacement according to Baseball-Reference). But overall it’s a deceptively small sample size, hardly overwhelming– if it were much larger and consistently undistinguished then I’d agree. Only 32 Japanese-born hurlers actually pitched in Nippon Professional Baseball. Just five of those 32 were under 27. Two were impact hurlers who’d won Japan’s Cy Young, the Eiji Sawamura Award: Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matsusaka. Darvish will make the jump a year younger than them at 25 and his track record is even more dominant. Nomo won the RoY award in 1995, threw two no-hitters, averaged 234 Ks his first three seasons, and despite some indifferent years performed well later in his career for Boston and L.A. Dice-K showed promise despite inefficiency and wildness his first two seasons before his recent disappointing output and subsequent Tommy John surgery. Most fantasy players would take those numbers.

You’re really basing your skepticism on one player. Yes, there are comparables, namely the most successful NPB pitcher at that time making the transition from a foreign league to MLB. That doesn’t constitute a meaningful sample. Granted Dice-K and Kei Igawa, who also leapt stateside in 2007, were considered control artists in Japan yet struggled to find the strike zone here. Darvish is not only younger, at 6’5” he has the kind of tall, lanky yet imposing frame scouts droolingly call projectable in prospects. He’s even added weight, improving his athleticism through workouts. That means he won’t flatten his pitches and can generate even more drive, movement and velocity while pinpointing pitches effectively.

Kelly: I think I may have failed as a parent. How can I let my son like anyone but the Phillies? Oh well, at least he still calls the other team from New York the “Evil Mets”.

In all honesty, I would not approve of the Phillies acquiring a pitcher from Japan. I am spoiled and enjoy watching the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels on a regular basis, because they keep the game moving, and more importantly, pound the strike zone. Just in case you forgot, here are the walk rates and command ratios of all three:

• Roy Halladay – 1.35 BB/9 – 6.29 K/BB
• Cliff Lee – 1.62 BB/9 – 5.67 K/BB
• Cole Hamels – 1.83 BB/9 – 4.41 K/BB

By way of comparison, here are the three pitchers you mentioned earlier…

• Hideo Nomo (2003) – 218.1 innings – 4.04 BB/9 – 1.81 K/BB
• Kei Igawa (2007) – 67.2 innings – 4.92 BB/9 – 1.43 K/BB
• Dice-K (2008) – 167.2 Innings – 5.05 BB/9 – 1.64 K/BB

It has been stated many times; “walks will kill you”, especially when you consider that 37.80% of leadoff batters walked also score. I will grant you that there is not a large sample size to pull from, but these stats are all that I have to base my opinion from.

Just so we are clear, I am not basing my skepticism off of only one player. It just so happen Dice-K crashed the hardest after the Red Sox spent oodles of money to acquire the right to him. I did my best to pull from their best seasons, and in all fairness, Kei Igawa has not had much time at the major league level. Of course, Igawa was billed as a “control artist” coming out of Japan.

Here is my point…

I don’t know if there is a different pitching philosophy in Japan, or the strike zones are indeed larger, but something does not translate for Japanese pitchers state side. Even at his best, Hideo Nomo posted his lowest walk rate of 3.35 in 1996, which I do believe was the same year of one of his no-hitters.

Let’s face facts… Corporations own all of the Japanese baseball teams. They are basically human billboards. So when a player like Yu Darvish comes along, do you really think the ump won't think twice about calling a borderline pitch a ball? Pitchers like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee live on the wider strike zones they have earned. Unfortunately, Darvish has not earned the respect of American umpires and so I expect a drastically tighter strike zone.

Jordan: And Cody hasn’t even reached the rebellious years, Kelly… Look, whether you cite one or three players, I’m not basing my evaluation on how other NPB pitchers fared in the US. Sure, the technical transition is pertinent to a degree, and of course the cultural element (language barrier, different diet, separation from loved ones, etc) also plays a part. Though I think Darvish can adapt, since he was already a Japanese media sensation (and their ravening reporters would make Gawker seem more sickeningly sweet than The Wiggles, which I hope isn’t Cody’s fave band).

But as for strike zones (and I’ll add quality of opponent, since Darvish will face several top hitters in any given lineup, not 2-3 threats as he had in Japan), those issues face any prospect climbing the minor-league ladder. NPB is often described as Triple- or even Quadruple-A. Darvish likely won’t get the close calls and generous strike zone he enjoyed as a national icon in Japan. But there’s no reason to believe he won’t make that adjustment. Likewise, his coaches and catcher will help him confront MLB hitters via targeted pitch selection and sequence. He does throw seven pitches effectively; the challenge, if any, will be reducing his repertoire! But even if he ditches most of his intimidating breaking stuff, his slider, cutter, sinker and four-seamer are filthy enough to throw hitters on both sides of the plate off-balance. If they let him throw his near-eephus-slow curve, he’ll reduce grown men to tears. His K:BB in 2011 was 276:36. The past five seasons his WHIP was 0.82 and his K/9 9.52. While we can’t translate NPB numbers stateside with certainty, his pinpoint control should help him paint the corners when necessary.

Kelly: I will grant you that Yu Darvish has an insane strikeout-to-walk ratio and one that might even make Mr. Halladay jealous. But does that mean Yu Darvish has a different pitching philosophy than his Japanese counterparts? Even Bobby Valentine has stated: "(Japanese pitchers) use the whole count. Their philosophy is that the rulebook says you get three balls and two strikes and then comes the pitch of reckoning.”

I checked into some of the stats that Yu Darvish posted last year. He threw 239 innings last season and walked only 42 batters, which as I said, is stellar. In fact, he also averaged around 14.6 pitches per inning, which is a solid number as well. So, maybe there is some credibility to what you are saying.

Like I stated earlier, I will keep an open mind.

As I was searching around for footage of Yu Darvish, I found one that piqued my curiosity. Unlike his predecessors, Yu Darvish does in fact remain upright throughout his delivery, and does not have a weird quirk like Daisuke Matsuzaka or Hideo Nomo.

As you can tell from the picture on the right, Darvish does something very interesting with his pitching arm. While it is not the dreaded “inverted W” (btw, why not just call it an “M” delivery?), he has a very distinctive right bend in his elbow and his wrist is also cocked.

The locked wrist is what keeps him from, as pitching coaches say, getting on top of the ball. That will translate into an inconsistent ability to throw pitches low in the zone. However, it does allow him to generate more spin on the ball, which in turn will cause them to drop faster. Thus, the decent groundball rates that Yu Darvish has posted in Japan.

The constantly bent right elbow has long been a debated topic among scouts. The amount of rotation that the shoulder must endure each time is a cause for concern for me. All it takes is a slight tweak in the shoulder to alter his well-developed mechanics and slow down the rotation of the shoulder joint, and thus cause undue stress on the elbow to achieve the same velocity. I understand that some pitchers (like Tim Lincecum) do the same type of rotation with the shoulder, but many of them often break down during a long season.

While I am certainly intrigued about Yu Darvish, I am still willing to let someone else assume the risk for this season.

Jordan: Kelly, you make an excellent point about Yu’s mechanics. Most scouts agree that the high elbow is a flaw (perhaps resulting from a lower drop point from his 3/4 arm angle given his height), which can stress the joint, but it’s either correctable or something the Rangers can live with. Everything else is exemplary: leg extension, foot plant, tempo, and critically, timing. As you rightly note, he doesn’t use the stop-go/herky-jerky motion favored by most Japanese hurlers. His delivery is clean, smooth and fluid with minimal recoil, which also lowers susceptibility to injury.

Yu doesn’t just get by on sheer overpowering stuff. His heater sits in the low 90s though he can dial it up to 96-7 effortlessly and really attacks hitters aggressively. What makes the Whirling Darvish special is his nasty offspeed stuff, confounding batters with that sick spin you cite. He generates incredible late movement without pressing, coupled with repeatability and exceptional command. His breaking stuff has real teeth; PITCHf/x data shows that he generated more than 60% swinging strikes on his slider (which is actually three pitches, including a slurve, thanks to varying the release point and speed). Indeed, his wrist wrap recalls that of another slippery slider-maestro, David Cone. But cocking the wrist isn’t worrisome (frankly, I’d be concerned about the other kind of hookers – and wildness – given his party-hearty rep). Sure, the accelerated supination of sliders can cause problems, according to pitching guru Chris O’Leary, as can the classic Inverted L position (90 degrees shoulder abduction and internal rotation with 90 degrees of elbow flexion) which we see in Lincecum, Carpenter, Kennedy, Burnett, Zito, and others. But timing, especially shoulder rotation relative to lower body movement, is more important.

Let’s remember that GM Jon Daniels actually went to Japan, Nolan Ryan is team president, and Greg and Mike Maddux are special consultant and pitching coach, respectively. That’s an impressive brain trust and I’m inclined to cut them slack! As for Bobby V, while he once told the august New York Times, “overthrowing is a definite concern,” he conceded that their superior mechanics and emphasis on “proper form” might help extend their careers. He also famously bragged that his Chiba Lotte Marines rotation could “match up with any six starters in the world,” when lobbying for a tilt with the World Series champs.

Darvish has only lost time to injury once, in 2006; this was blamed primarily on his screwball which he’s since deleted from his arsenal. Meanwhile, his velocity has increased (not surprising given that he was still growing). He added bulk and now possesses the ideal pitcher’s workhorse frame. That further distinguishes him from Dice-K. Moreover he never threw 200-plus pitches in a game as Matsuzaka did frequently. He gradually increased his innings pitched from 94.1 as an 18-year-old rookie to 232 last year.

Naysayers red-flag his workload. It’s not uncommon for a Japanese ace to pitch in relief or start on short rest in important games. Teams maintain rigorous regimens year-round, sometimes throwing more than 200 pitches daily. Yu’s averaged over 200 innings annually since 2007, in addition to competing in the Olympics, Asian Games, World Baseball Classic, et al. Burnout is possible. Indeed, Tom Verducci recently wrote in Sports Illustrated about a third year wall (which is why I’m leerier of Darvish in keeper leagues): “Research by the Boston quantitative analysts showed that most pitchers from Nippon Pro Ball suffered a sharp decline in performance about three years into their transition to Major League Baseball.” Reasons abound from cultural acclimation challenges to the longer, more intense seasons.

Or it’s a wrong, unbalanced kind of workload: Pitchers throw once weekly in Japan. At his request, Nippon Ham permitted Darvish to pitch every six days. Now he’ll have to adjust to even shorter rest over a longer season, not to mention deal with greater travel demands over several time zones. Verducci notes that “…he often runs up big pitch counts with extra days of rest in between. In 2010 alone he threw 140 pitches or more in a game nine times -- more than every major league pitcher combined over the past nine years. This year he hit 140 just once, but still reached 120 pitches 15 times. No major league pitcher has thrown 15 120-pitch games in a season since 2005, when Livan Hernandez did so.”

Yet he hasn’t exhibited wear-and-tear, and his conditioning regimen should guarantee mileage to burn. That should help curtail fatigue in the second half. Moreover, the Rangers have a stellar pen (and five proven starters), giving them the luxury of pitching Darvish 5-6 innings, conserving his arm and improving stamina. Though the Persian Pitbull (I’m trademarking that!) displays fierce demeanor and shouldn’t require coddling, perhaps they’ll follow the Red Sox model with Dice-K and pitch him every sixth or seventh day half the time. I'd be more worried about extreme heat in Texas, frankly.

Ultimately it’s all speculation. I agree that he’s a risk, but his ridiculous upside makes the reward even higher. If he falls in drafts to the 130s or fetches under $12 at auction, I’m comfortable with that risk. High five, Cody!

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