Thursday, May 17, 2012
Tim Hudson Ailing Back - Should You be Concerned?
Written by Jeremy Tiermini   
Thursday, 01 December 2011 14:27

hudson_timIt was reported recently that Atlanta Braves' starting pitcher Tim Hudson had surgery to repair a herniated disk in his back, which was causing him discomfort during the last two seasons. When I first heard the news I thought of Randy Johnson, whose back issues hampered him tremendously at the end of his career and who once missed 4+ months because of surgery to fix the disc.  Tim Hudson's off-season workouts caused the pain to increase so the surgery was scheduled quickly and the Atlanta Braves are reporting, per GM Frank Wren, that "the prognosis is positive" for Hudson to be ready for spring training.

 

Technical Stuff

A quick anatomy lesson: you have 33 vertebrae that make up your spinal column and between most of these vertebrae, those that are not normally fused together (like in your tailbone), you have intervertebral discs. These discs act as a shock absorber between the vertebrae and have two basic parts: a softer, jelly-like center (the nucleus pulposus) and the outer fibrous shell (the annulus fibrosis). When the outer shell becomes damaged it can split, or herniated, which allows the jelly-like center to protrude out and compress against spinal nerves, potentially causing numbness or loss of strength in the lower back or down the legs. As a protective mechanism, muscle spasms can also occur; all of these would obviously limit a pitcher's effectiveness.

 

Good or Bad News?

First and foremost, despite the surgical solution, this is good news for fantasy owners because the surgery occurred right now. The Atlanta Braves and Tim Hudson could have decided on a course of rest before resuming baseball workouts; surgery after that option would have threatened Hudson's availability / effectiveness for the first few months of the 2012 season.

Despite dealing with his back issues, Hudson made 34 and 33 starts, respectively, over the past two seasons, posting WHIPs of 1.15 and 1.14. In fact, in 2011, Hudson posted his highest strikeout total since 2003 and his 6.6 K/9 ratio was his highest since the 6.9 he posted in 2001. A quick check of his velocity numbers over at Fangraphs shows that Hudson's velocity has dropped slightly over the last three seasons but, remember, he is 36-years old; a decrease in velocity is to be expected. Further research at Fangraphs shows all of the following stats falling into the "Good" range, as opposed to "Poor": ERA, BB/9, HR/9, BA Against, WHIP, and BABIP. All of these are good signs for Hudson heading into 2012.

 

Our Take on Tim Hudson

Hudson is the type of guy I love to own: he should come fairly cheaply and he will help you in 4 of the 5 standard roto categories, as long as you are realistic about his K-totals, since I do not expect Hudson to match his 2011 total of 158. As long as he does not suffer any setbacks during Spring Training expect the standard Hudson offering: 15-16 wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 130 K's. Plug him in as your #3/4 starting pitcher in mixed leagues and focus your attention on the weaker areas of your roster.

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Comments 

 
#1 Jeremy_Tiermini 2012-02-20 13:15
Reports out today indicate that Hudson will miss the first month of the season. "Me getting back for the start of the season was never really a possibility, just from a timeline standpoint," Hudson said (MLB.com). "The kind of surgery I had is a three-to-sixth-month deal. Five months puts me at May 1."

He could now trend towards the 6-month duration, leaving him out for June, as well...unless he is a guy I can grab for $1-2 and stash him on my DL I am going to leave him alone this year.
 

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