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2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 8 Review

Written by Kelly Pfleiger

Thursday, 26 January 2012 09:36

What do Brandon Morrow and Cole Hamels have in common?

They both allow home runs at around the same rate. In 2011, Brandon Morrow allowed 1.05 home runs per nine innings, and for his career, Cole Hamels averages 1.09 home runs. If they are the same, then why was Cole Hamels selected four rounds ago?

While Brandon Morrow will lure fantasy baseball owners in with his gaudy strikeout rates, Cole has significantly more skills when it comes to pitching. Not only does Hamels allow fewer hits, but he also walks 1.63 fewer batters per game. Simply put… When Cole allows the long ball, there are fewer runners on base.

Don’t you wish everything was that easy?

Here is who was selected during the 8^th round:

1)	Markus Potter	Adam Wainwright	SP - STL
2)	Scott Gilroy	Jordan Zimmermann	SP - WAS
3)	Tim McLeod	Nick Swisher	OF - NYY
4)	Joel Henard	J.J. Hardy	SS - BAL
5)	Brett Barton	Mariano Rivera	RP - NYY
6)	Daniel Schwartz	Logan Morrison	OF - MIA
7)	Tad Blooth	Ryan Howard	1B - PHI
8)	Marc Rogovin	Ike Davis	1B - NYM
9)	Yoram Batner	Drew Storen	RP - WAS
10)	Scott Niemisto	Brian Wilson	RP - SF
11)	Mike Lester	Corey Hart	OF - MIL
12)	Scot Nesbihak	Jose Valverde	RP - DET
13)	Joshua Feiger	Jesus Montero	C - NYY
14)	Dan Kercher	Brandon Morrow	SP - TOR
15)	Greg Sullivan	Adam Lind	1B - TOR
16)	Tom Liszka	Mark Trumbo	1B - LAA

Adam Wainwright – I find it interesting how high he was drafted after missing an entire season. While I don’t like this particular pick, Wainwright has the potential to return to his ace level performance in 2012. His is currently ahead of schedule in his recovery and will be ready for Spring Training. My issue is only with how high he had to be selected even though he will struggle during the first two months of the season.

Exclusive ADP

This draft is part of our annual average draft position and scarcity reports. Be sure to check out our Exclusive Offering of the ADP on January 28th.

Jordan Zimmermann – I think my love for Zimm-Zimm is well documented. I love how he locates pitches low in the zone and lowered his walk rate to 1.73 last season. In fact, his 4.00 K/BB ratio was 11^th best among starting pitchers.

Nick Swisher – He is a quality bat for a league that counts walks (15% walk rate). Since 2006, Nick Swisher has not played less than 150 games in a season, nor hit less than 22 home runs. I can sum up this pick in one easy statement; solid production at a decent price.

J.J. Hardy – Will the real J.J. Hardy please stand up? After averaging 25 homeruns in 2007-08, Hardy hit only 17 the next two seasons. Now we are drafting him after a terrific 2011 where he hit the 30 home run mark. But his HR/flyball rate tell the story:

2007 – 12.0%
2008 – 14.1%
2009 – 9.1%
2010 – 10.2%
2011 – 14.1%

While I believe injuries were the greater factor for two years, I believe his power numbers are legit.

Mariano Rivera – How long can he really go? At age 42, I am not going to be the person to find out.

Logan Morrison – Matt V. loves the LoMo, and for good reason. The young outfielder started 2011 really well, but still managed to piss off Marlins management. After posting a career low .265 BABIP, I think his batting average will rebound to a .270 level in 2012. Morrison is the typical 2^nd year player I would have avoided last year, but target in 2012.

Ryan Howard – I, like many Philly fans, cried the night Howard ended the game, the playoffs, in a heaped gelatin mass. We all knew it was bad. While the surgery on his Achilles tendon went well, the Phillies will be happy to get 5 months of production from Howard in 2012. For a player that can carry a team for an entire month, this is an inexpensive price to pay for 2^nd round talent.

Ike Davis – Is he ready to start 2012? He has fully recovered from his ankle injury and is already working out in preparation for Spring Training. I hate to admit this as a Phillies fan, but I really like the potential of Ike Davis. In fact, I believe he will have the same power numbers as Ryan Howard in 2012, and be a far better hitter than Freddie Freeman.

Drew Storen – One of the many young and very talented players in Washington. He successfully dropped his walk rate by 1.19 batters per game while maintaining his high strikeout rates (8.84 K/9). Storen is also around 30 years younger than Mariano Rivera.

Brian Wilson – The injury at the end of the season may have scarred a few people off. Or was it the injury at the beginning of the season? My point is that Brian Wilson had an injury riddled season that saw his walk rate reach a career high 5.07 batters per nine innings. A healthy Wilson will return in 2012, and provide solid value at this pick.

Corey Hart – It is rumored that Hart might play first base in 2012. While we can speculate on what the loss of Prince Fielder will mean for Hart, I think he has established himself as a decent power hitter in a favorable home park.

Jose Valverde – Please DO NOT pay a high price in your draft for a season of 49 saves. All of his rates stats (8.59 K/9, 4.23 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, 1.19 WHIP) were identical to years past. He is still Jose Valverde. This slot is about right. Valverde is a top 10 reliever, but not a top tier one.

Jesus Montero – We talked about Jesus Montero last year already, but I do not like this pick. How can you make a top 10 pick for your team off of scouting reports and 1 month of playing time at the major league level? Look, I think he will be a fine player in a few years and don’t get me wrong; I would draft Montero in 2012, but only if he fell past the 15^th round.

Brandon Morrow – The high K rates are awesome, the walk rates… not so awesome I think I mentioned enough in the intro paragraph.

Adam Lind – 2011 was a weird season. During the first half, Lind performed well, not fantastic, but he was more than a serviceable player. Then he slumped for two months and starting showing up on waiver wires. One other stat troubles me… the .295 OBP only two seasons after posting a .370 OBP in 2009. Not really sure what to think about Adam Lind. Ugh, I will probably be sucked in and draft him too often this year…. Yet again.

Mark Trumbo – Oh, how the Albert Pujols signing hurt this pick. The Angels said he might play at third, or the outfield, in 2012, but they want his bat in the lineup. Oh, and then there is Kendrys Morales returning? Seems like too many players for too few rosters spots.

3 Burning Questions from this Round…

In what order would you rank the closers taken in this round?
Who hits more HR in 2012… Ryan Howard or Ike Davis?
Do you disagree with my perspective on Jesus Montero?

Feel free to tell me I am wrong regarding Jesus Montero. Or feel free to tell me how smart I am regarding Montero. Either way, leave comments.

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Comments

#5 Michael Lester 2012-01-31 12:10

1) Storen, Wilson, Rivera and staying away from Valverde
2) I'll take Howard on the HR duel If healthy
3) I think Montero is a future star, BUT I won't be drafting him this season as he has some growing pains ahead of him

#4 Yoram, pick 8 2012-01-31 07:51

Burning Questions:

I have the closers taken in this round ranked Storen-Rivera-Valverde-Wilson. But I have all sorts of other closers ranked in between some of these guys. Wilson is great but I'm terrified of closers who are suddenly injury concerns. Rivera is probably going to be his brilliant self once again but it has to end some year so I'm going to let him be someone else's top guy.

Forced to choose between Howard and Davis I'll take Howard. Davis' injury has played out a bit like Kendrys Morales' - we have no idea why it's taken so long to heal. Because of this, we don't really know what he'll look like when he finally does get back on the field. Achilles surgeries are not complicated so Howard should really be back to his old declining self.

I agree with your view on Jesus Montero. If this were a keeper league I might argue that he lasted too long. But as a baby-faced bust-out candidate I think this round carries too much risk.

#3 michael kolodny 2012-01-28 07:51

I'm happy to play and hope I can pick a great team.

#2 Josh Feiger 2012-01-26 13:02

Love the Zimmerman and Wainwright picks. Both strong. Zimm is 3rd year breakout pitcher. Trust the Cardinals pitching coaches regardless. Happy to have either as a #2 on my team.

Don't like any of the closers picked in this round. Each has a question mark too big to accept the risk in round 8. Would rather have JJ Putz than either of these four.

I think Howard is a great value this year. Too many nay-sayers. Stick a replacement-level player for the first six weeks, then get a top 40 player for the rest of the year. Good value.

Montero -- don't know what to think. I liked him if for the catcher eligibility. I think he could easily figure in the top 5 for catchers this year, .280, 20 HR, 75 RBI does should do that -- especially batting #3 in Seattle line-up. I have him in a 5x5 keeper league at $4 where he only qualifies at DH, and I can't decide what to do...

#1 Brett Barton 2012-01-26 12:36

I would rank the 4 RP just the way they were drafted. As far as Rivera let’s look at his last 15 years, 1x under 30 Saves, 1x with more than 20BB, an ERA under 2.00 11x, a WHIP over 1.00 only 4x...all while pitching in the toughest division in baseball. I like those numbers especially over 40 Saves 8x.

Between Howard and Davis it would lucky if either hits the 20HR plateau. Howard will not be playing in the cold spring air in Philly. I expect he misses 40 games and Davis may never be a 20+HR candidate.

If I can get a player who will be hitting in the 3 hole to fill a position need in my roster during round 8; I will be scooping that player up quickly. ;-)