Red Sox Nation ended the 2011 season in a gut-punch kind of way, choking away their playoff bid and then falling victim to the “Beer and Popeye’s” scandal.  Those two factors helped usher Terry Francona out of the manager’s office, with Boston ownership promising a reversal of fortune for 2012.  Part of that reversal was supposed to come from the improved performance of Carl Crawford, who had a dismal debut season in Beantown.

With the calendar turning to 2012 the Fenway Faithful were expecting big things from Craw…oh, wait. What? He had SURGERY? How the hell did that happen?  Why didn’t he fix his wrist issue during the off-season? After some dust has settled we have a clearer picture of this situation.

According to new Sox GM Ben Cherington, Crawford showed no symptoms at the end of 2011.  He explained that, because Crawford had no discomfort in his wrist after the season concluded, there was “no direct evidence” that a surgical solution was needed.  He elaborated with the following: “We have to trust the player. They’re the one out there playing.”  Ah, trust, the thing that Red Sox fans are known for. I trust you when you say trading Babe Ruth is a good plan. Yeah, Bucky Dent won’t hurt us.  Leave Buckner in…he should be there to join in the cele-…what??? E-3?

Okay, enough with the kidding. I kid because I love…I love being on the YANKEES side of this rivalry. Okay, NOW I am done.

So what should fantasy owners do with Carl Crawford for 2012?

Your wrist is really more of a “complex” then an actual joint.  Your two forearm bones (the radius and the ulna; yes, that ulna of Ulnar Collateral Ligament (the “Tommy John” ligament) meet up with a grouping of eight small, cube shaped bones called your carpals.  That grouping of eight bones creates a complex series of gliding motions, with the flat surface of one bone sliding over the flat surfaces of other bones, in order to produce the movements of the wrist.  Over time, as these cartilage surfaces of the bones slide and grind against each other, you can develop soreness and, eventually, arthritis.

In researching Crawford’s wrist injury, I found that he first suffered issues back in 2005 and really only missed time, because of the wrist, in 2007.  As he began his off-season workouts this year, Crawford noticed the increase in pain.  An MRI revealed damage to the cartilage of the wrist and Crawford had the arthroscopic procedure, which is done for patients show, you guessed it, early arthritis.

The good news is that fellow Boston OF Josh Reddick had the same surgery and it only took him 8 weeks to recover.  Crawford is notorious for his effort and attention to detail in his workouts; provided he has no setbacks in his rehab, the 8-week mark would put him in mid-March, with a few weeks to go before Opening Day.  Assuming there are no setbacks, there is a very real chance Crawford will be ready by Opening Day.  If not, Cherington said that, “Carl will be our everyday left fielder for the bulk of the 2012 season.” So draft Crawford as you normally would, right?

That actually depends on how you would “normally” draft him.  Crawford might be one of the most-hyped fantasy players of all-time, as numerous experts felt that an upcoming season would be the year he made the leap and his power showed up.  However, he has never hit more than 19 HR’s in a season, which occurred in his last season (2010) in Tampa Bay.  In 2011, Boston could never find the right spot in the batting order and Crawford struggled, putting up the following stat line: .255 BA, 11 HR’s, 65 runs, 56 RBI’s, and just 18 stolen bases.  His OBP dropped to a career-low .289 and, while he struck out 104 times in both 2010 and 2011, his 104 K’s in ’11 occurred in 119 fewer plate appearances.

If you play in a keeper league you can’t move him unless you get some owner willing to pay for his reputation, which will be tough to do after last season. If he starts out hot and can show he is the Carl Crawford of old then I would move him in keeper leagues and move him quickly.  I believe in dealing players too early rather than too late.  Crawford will turn 31 this season and I don’t think he will ever break the 20-HR plateau, especially with the degenerative condition of his wrist.

If I were running the Red Sox I would place Crawford in the #6 spot in the order and leave him there. He will get a few more RBI chances and, with the weaker 7-9 hitters behind him, Crawford would have a chance to manufacture some runs with his legs, which could up his SB numbers.  Of course, we don’t know where Crawford will hit in the order.

While I do like Crawford, I will only realistically draft him in if he falls a few rounds.  In Fantasy Gameday’s 2012 Slow Mock Draft, Crawford went in the 3^rd round, selected 40^th overall.  Hitters selected after Crawford that I would have rather taken: Ryan Zimmerman, Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez, and Pablo Sandoval. All of these players have some baggage, be it injury or a weight concern, but I would rather gamble on a player that has proven he can be a power hitter, especially at shallower positions like 2B or 3B.

I expect Crawford to put up the following this season: .285 BA, 14 HR’s, 85 runs, 70 RBI’s, and 25 steals.  Even I was shocked when I first wrote that projection…then I looked at his career in Fenway. He has hit just 8 homers, with a .275 average, over 590 plate appearances covering 138 games.  Those numbers don’t convince me he is going to start banging the ball all over Fenway, even if he was 100% healthy.  To me, Crawford has fallen out of my top 50 players and, in a 16-team league like in Fantasy Gameday’s Slow Mock Draft, I am not drafting him before the end of the 4^th round, at the earliest.

Are you going to target Carl Crawford or avoid him in 2012?