Throughout yesterday, I ran a poll on Twitter and Facebook that was instigated by one loyal reader’s question. It was a simple yet powerful one… Would you rather draft Gio Gonzalez or Daniel Hudson in 2012? I must admit, I was a bit surprised by the results.

Apparently, the love for Gio Gonzalez has grown as of late since just over 60% voted for him.

According to average draft position data, the results should have been in the opposite direction. During our mock draft Daniel Hudson was selected during the 6^th round (95^th overall) and Gio Gonzalez was taken in the 7^th round (110^th overall). In addition our Average Draft Position Report listed Hudson as an 8^th round selection in 12-team drafts.  Meanwhile, Gonzalez was selected during the 10^th round.

What changed to cause 60% of the responders to vote for Gio Gonzalez?

While our ADP data is not influenced by rankings from one site, many owners now believe in the 200 strikeout potential of Gio Gonzalez in the National League. Of course the potential was there in Oakland as well, but the 200 strikeout plateau almost becomes a certainty in 2012.

However, the change in ballparks should be considered.

According to park factors, the Nationals ballpark was ranked 9^th in homeruns allowed last season while Oakland came in 26^th. Numerous writers are claiming these numbers as the sole reason to avoid Gio Gonzalez in 2012.

I think you should take park factor numbers with a grain of salt.

Park factors tend to vary from year to year. The players on the field influence the numbers just as much as the dimensions of the park. For example, the Nationals Ballpark was ranked 9^th in home runs allowed in 2011.  It was also ranked 15^th in 2010 and 19^th in 2009.

How can the park factors change by ten positions in the rankings without the dimensions changing?

Yes, some parks are indeed larger than others, but if you put a team of Juan Pierre’s out there you will get the San Francisco Giants and the league worst park for home runs allowed in 2011.

Here is another example. Why did Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City rank 2^nd in homeruns allowed in 2002 and 29^th in 2011? The stadium did receive some renovations before the 2009 season, but the dimensions were not changed. As I looked into the pitching staff the Royals had in 2002, I realized the answer resides with the number of homeruns their starting pitching staff allowed per game.

• Paul Byrd – 1.42 HR/9
• Darrell May – 1.92 HR/9
• Jeff Suppan – 1.38 HR/9
• Miguel Asencio – 1.24 HR/9

While I agree that Gio Gonzalez moving to the Nationals’ ballpark won’t help his homerun totals, the move to the National League is a far greater gain. By the way, the Diamondbacks stadium was ranked 10^th in homeruns allowed last year.

Who should you draft in 2012?

With both of the home ballparks being virtually the same, and both teams in the National League, the decision boils down to a statistical evaluation. Just so we are on the same page, here are the 2011 stats for both Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Hudson:

Gio – 8.78 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 2.16 K/BB, 0.76 HR/9, .287 BABIP, .229 Ave
Hudson – 6.82 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 3.38 K/BB, 0.96 HR/9, .295 BABIP, .251 Ave

2011 was the first full season for Daniel Hudson at the major league level. While Hudson did not post an elite strikeout rate, he did lower his walk rate for the third consecutive year. It is interesting to note that Gio Gonzalez also lowered his walk rates over the past three years and yet it is still above four batters per game.

I think Gio Gonzalez is the proper choice in 2012.  The move to the National League means he will be facing overall weaker offenses.  While I truly believe Daniel Hudson will improve this season, there is no reason to leave 200 strikeouts on the table.

Right now, Gio Gonzalez is a steal if he is still available during the 10^th round. However, as our poll results and recent ADP trending indicate, the odds of that happening are slim. I would be willing to bet that by the end of February, he will move ahead of Daniel Hudson in the Average Draft Position rankings.

If a change in the rankings occurs, then I will mimic politicians and flip-flop my position and draft Daniel Hudson in 2012. It’s ALL about value on draft day.

Who are you planning on taking and why?