For some reason, when considering an article regarding Buster Posey’s injury, I just could not pull the trigger. Perhaps it was just too quiet in regards to updates.  I felt like Kevin Bacon was in his ROTC uniform from Animal House, yelling “Remain calm! All is well!” In mid-December it was reported that Buster Posey was close to 100% while participating in hitting and running drills.  The Giants also stated that Posey was to resume full baseball-related activities in January and they plan on playing him as much as possible in 2012.

So plan on drafting Posey early since he is the best catcher available, right?

I went back and watched video highlights of the injury.  First, Scott Cousins should not be blamed for the injury. Posey did his job in blocking the plate and Cousins did his job in doing everything possible to score the winning run in that game.  In addition, Cousins was right at Posey’s side after the injury, demonstrating obvious concern. Second, when watching the slow-motion replays, it was pretty obvious that Posey suffered a severe injury.

The first injury information that was released involved the fracture to Posey’s left fibula.  If you read my Kendrys Morales piece (and if you didn’t, why not?) you know the fibula is the non-weight bearing bone on the outer part of your lower leg.  By itself a fractured fibula would have kept Posey out for 2-3 months and he would have been able to return, most likely, by mid-August.  A few days after the initial injury was sustained, the Giants announced that Posey had suffered three torn ligaments in addition to the fracture.  It is because of those ligament tears that I was surprised at how little information was being released regarding Buster Posey.

Much to my delight, late last week there was some news regarding Buster Posey that seems to have gotten lost in the Super Bowl hype.  In an article in the Mercury News, Posey indicated he had met or exceeded all of his rehab goals.  However, the big news was that Posey “acknowledged he is not 100 percent and that the ankle is stiff when he rolls out of bed in the morning.”

Right then and there, bells and whistles started going off in my head.

While the Giants plan to actively rest Posey this year by playing him, at least once a week, at first base in 2012, this revelation is very disconcerting. Posey also acknowledged:

• He won’t be ready for the rigors of catching during spring training.
• That he is thinking about changing his mechanics as a catcher.
• He is not sure how his ankle will respond the day after he plays a full game.

His left ankle bears a great deal of force when he strides while batting and throwing. If he does alter his mechanics, then I worry that he will risk overuse injuries to his upper body as he tries to make up for the force he is losing because of the ankle injury.

Buster Posey’s situation sums up the reasons why I will rarely, if ever, draft a catcher in the early rounds of a draft. The risk of injury for catchers is far too great, in my opinion, to justify the investment you have to make for an elite catcher.

Posey started slow in 2010 and 2011 so there should be no shock if he starts this year slow, as well. However, I worry that his slow start will continue for much of the season because he is just not ready to handle the rigors of a full season.

IF Posey played a full season at first base I could see him breaking the 20-HR barrier. However, IF the Giants use him regularly at catcher then I see Posey as the bust of the 2012 season.

Assuming that Buster Posey gets a full season of at bats (and that is a big assumption) I see Posey putting up the following: .290 BA, 13 HR’s, 65 runs, 70 RBI’s.

If you do plan on drafting Posey you need to watch his spring training games very closely. Don’t worry about his stats as much as you read the game notes or the team reports published the day after his spring training games. You want to listen for any indication on the status of his ankle. For me, I am forgetting about Buster Posey this year and I am focusing my draft prep efforts elsewhere.