Do not laugh at the title.  I realize the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season has not even started. Yet we are going to talk about 2013 already?

A very loyal reader asked about whom the top 3 picks for the 2013 draft will be.  While at first glance you might scoff at the question, his reasoning is extremely valid. If players like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Jose Bautista are indeed top 3 picks for next season, then he should target them at the top of the draft.  However, if other players like Matt Kemp or Justin Upton will be valued as a top 3 selection then he should target them.

His reason for asking the question will go a long way to determining his draft position in a league.  Selecting within the top two spots in the draft will allow you to choose whomever you want.  Average Draft Position dictates that selecting Albert Pujols at that slot is “wise”.  However, by doing so, players such as Kemp or Upton will be taken before he gets the chance to pick again.

I posed the question to the entire writing staff, and the challenge was greeted with enthusiasm. Below you will find everyone’s responses, including mine at the end.

Ivar Anderson:

1. Miguel Cabrera – The addition of 3B eligibility pushes him to the top of the pile in 2013.  Besides, playing with Prince Fielder (and Victor Martinez next year) is just sauce for the goose.
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Position scarcity is the key here for me, but I have been a Tulo supporter since he burst onto the scene.
3. Albert Pujols – He is slowing down a bit, but still a top-tier producer no matter where he plays.

Full disclosure… I really wanted to go with Curtis Granderson as the third selection, but that would have been just crazy talk.  Sorry that my selections are so pedestrian, but the top players usually are safe picks unless injury or stupidity strikes.

Jeremy Tiermini:

1. Miguel Cabrera – A full season in front of Prince Fielder made Ryan Braun an MVP.  Even though he will mix time at DH and first base, 3B eligibility pushes him over the top.
2. Hanley Ramirez – With Jose Reyes and Ozzie Guillen in the mix, Han-Ram will no longer be the center of controversy in Miami.  I think he will return to pre-2011 form.
3. Matt Kemp – After finishing second in the MVP voting again in 2012 (to Hanley Ramirez), Kemp will cement his spot as a top 3 fantasy baseball option.

Jordan Simon:

Alright, I'm really going out on a limb. Though I'd be more comfortable with my #s 2 and 3 for 2014, all I see "in their way" is aging veterans who may maintain their elite numbers or start showing skill set slippage.

1. Miguel Cabrera - Still young, in the middle of a potent lineup (assuming   VMart returns from his gruesome injury), and presumably will add 3B   eligibility---though the grand experiment should not be seen as a given, since   Leyland and his pitching staff may cringe at this butchers' infield.
2. Justin Upton. Although his walk rate decreased, his K% declined far more dramatically, while his improved aggressiveness at the plate has already   significantly reduced the gap in both lefty/righty and home/away splits. At  25-6 he'll be entering his true prime.
3. Brett Lawrie - I'll throw in a real wild card. Honestly I don't expect him to reach his full potential until 2014. But when was the last time we saw a Genuine 30/30 threat at the hot corner?

Here's part of my rationale for both Upton and Lawrie (who has genuine 30/30 potential as a 3B): Studies are beginning to show that the true power peak isn't 27-8 but 25-6, at least for players who graduate early to the majors. Look at all the options and you see they're hitting 29, 30, and 31 in 2013. Another reason I didn't include Kemp is that he's really only put up spectacular numbers one season, his plate discipline remains somewhat suspect, and the surrounding cast is marginal.

Chris Spencer:

Guess it is my turn to chime in…

1. Ryan Braun – Until the possible suspension, he was in the discussion as the #1 pick for this season.  He’s a beast and you all know it.  He’ll come back with a vengeance after 50 games.
2. Troy Tulowitzki – 30 homeruns from the shortstop position is the next best thing after finding money in your jeans.
3. Joey Votto – He has hit 29 or more homeruns and 103 or more RBIs while batting on the positive side of .300 over the past two years.  He is in a great ballpark and the Reds lineup is coming together. Look for the entire Reds’ team to take a big step forward with Joey Votto the horse leading that carriage.

By the way, I am not buying into all the Miguel Cabrera love. Everyone... I mean EVERYONE is predicting that he will easily shift over to the hot corner and elevate his already high fantasy value. I'm not buying it. Is he worth 1st round pick this year? Yes. Will he dominate this year? No. It wouldn't surprise me if his value dropped due re-learning new position (name the last person to move from 1st to 3rd and increase their value) or off field issues (not too long ago this was the case) or injury (just a few years ago he was labeled fat & lazy).

Randall Dean:

1. Miguel Cabrera – I would have slotted him at #2 or #3 before the addition of Prince Fielder.  Adding third base eligibility to an elite hitter turns him into Fantasy Baseball gold.
2. Matt Kemp – He had a ridiculous season in 2011 and should have been the MVP.  This is one star that is just beginning to shine.
3. Justin Upton – He is just entering his prime and has ALL the tools to be a top tier Fantasy Baseball stud for years to come.

Matt Vandenbrand:

I think my selections will take a different route than the rest of the staff.  I would like to pick Justin Upton, but he falls just short for me. The ballsy pick of Brett Lawrie at 3^rd seems ridiculous, but I watched the kid a lot after he was called up and he is the real deal. Picking Brett Lawrie that high is probably the boldest pick you’ll see anywhere and I love it!

1. Matt Kemp – Anyone with legit 40/40 talent has to be the number one pick.  We have most likely seen his ceiling, but a repeat of 2011 is entirely possible.
2. Troy Tulowitzki – Shortstop is so thin each season.  Though his projections (90 runs, 30 HR, 110 RBI, .310 AVE) are not elite, position scarcity makes him a must have selection.
3. Miguel Cabrera – He is a top 3 pick even if the addition of third base eligibility does not happen. We all know he most likely will gain it, and his elite numbers will likely improve with Prince Fielder in the lineup.

Matt Tavormina:

1. Albert Pujols - I have no reason to worry about Pujols.  In fact, I have rarely worried less about one player.
2. Hanley Ramirez - He's young, incredibly talented, and will have 3B and SS eligibility this year. Ramirez may have a slightly poor attitude, but he's no Milton Bradley.  I think he is undervalued this season due to people overracting to the numbers he posted in 2011. The guy was a top 3 selection very recently, and will return to that status in 2013.
3. Ryan Braun - He would be there this year, and as long as he doesn't let his situation get to his head, he will be the #1 outfielder during the second half of 2012.

Michael Noland:

1. Troy Tulowitzki - I believe that Tulo is a great foundation for a team and is just beginning to hit his peak. Tulo should be a no brainer in 2013 as a top overall pick with his solid speed and power capabilities.
2. Matt Kemp - A close second to Tulowitzki. The recent contract extension means he is going to be in the same ballpark for a while. I really like that Matt Kemp will be under 30 years-old, and has put together three solid fantasy baseball seasons to this point. I feel he is the best outfielder available.
3. Adrian Gonzalez - Everyone knows he has the AVG, HRs, and RBIs to justify a top 3 selection. Being in Boston for 2 more years will cement him as the go to guy offensively on that team.  This will not only help his overall numbers, but also give him the lineup protection to thrive.

Chuck Anderson:

1. Miguel Cabrera - Due to interleague play, adding 3B eligibility is a foregone conclusion and come 2013 he will have Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez hitting around him.
2. Albert Pujols - Look for a mild bounceback year in 2012 keeping him among Fantasy Baseball's most prized assets.
3. Troy Tuliwtzki - I worry more about Reyes' hamstrings and Ramirez' shoulder than the nicks that Tulo seems to accumulate.  When he is on the fieldhe is by far the most desirable shortstop and a great foundation for a Fantasy Baseball team.

Kelly Pfleiger:

Wow! Fantasy Baseball experts are certainly a fickle bunch. Allow my to be the voice of reason within this entire discussion.

1. Ryan Braun – While I can understand that the possible 50-game suspension will impact this season, I think everyone is being too nearsighted regarding the fantasy goodness that is Ryan Braun in 2013.  If he was being selected #1 overall before the suspension news, why wouldn’t he be draft #1 overall in 2013?  I don’t think the skills are going away.
2. Joey Votto – Even though Albert Pujols might deserve to be placed here, Votto has progressed in each of the past three seasons.  Since 2008, his walk rate has increased by 5.3%, and Votto lowered his strikeout rate last season to a career low 17%.
3. Justin Upton – I really like the recent improvements with his approach at the plate, and the power is going to develop a bit more this season.  As much as I love Matt Kemp I think we saw his ceiling in 2011 (never mind the plate discipline issue and lack of lineup protection).  However, I believe we have only seen the start of what Justin Upton can do.

Over the past few years, I would have been far more conservative with which players I would have selected.  As Jordan pointed out, the peak ages for players starting in the major leagues before the age of 24 is earlier than the traditional “magic 27 year” philosophy indicates. 

In addition, my research is beginning to reveal that the vast majority of the top players each season are actually under the age of 30 with at least 3 years of professional experience.

Tell us who you think will be the top 3 selections in 2013.  Trust me, it is not as easy as you might think!