Thursday, May 17, 2012
FGD Readers Mock Draft No. 2
Written by Ivar Anderson   
Monday, 20 February 2012 00:00

kershaw_claytonThe second mock draft for our readers took place on Thursday, February 16th.  It was a 12 team mixed with a fairly standard roster (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF(5), CI, MI, U, SP(2), RP(2), P(4), B(2)) and we had one no-show and one computer pick.  It is always best to have a full slate of active drafters, but we make do as best we can.  The results of the draft are posted on GoogleDocs as per usual, here.

As I normally do, I will analyze the draft, and comment on picks I see as values, picks that maybe were reaches and the picks that make me go "Hmm."  I will break the draft up into 3 substantially equal chunks, rounds 1-7, 8-15 and 16-23.

Just as a point of reference, I tried out a new technique in this draft, something totally alien to me.  I have an anathema for drafting pitchers early, so this mock I tested out a draft scenario where I took a SP in the second round, and then continued to take one pitcher every 3 picks thereafter.  I didn't love my team when the draft was finished, but it wasn't horrible.  The offense that I ended up with was adequate, but certainly I could have done better.  No more early pitcher drafts for me.

Rounds 1-7

Aside from my pick of Kershaw in the second round (What? Not Verlander?  No, he's being overvalued in the early mocks I have witnessed; despite his Cy Young 2011, I prefer the runner up or Doc Halladay), and yackmann's selection of Granderson at the end of the second, all went as expected in the first two rounds.  Kinda surprised to see Halladay last until the third, and the selection of Hosmer and Lawrie strike me as slight reaches as their values are unproven, but based on ADPs, they went as necessary.

I like the Desmond Jennings pick, despite the fact that he, too, is essentially unproven.  I see him as a power/speed combination that should be targeted as an OF2.  ARod in the mid fifth is a pick of faith-you have to believe he's gonna be healthy to make this selection, but then again, you have the same risk with Youklis who went 2 picks later to me. 

I am not sold on either Alex Gordon or Choo, who went in the 6th.  Again, acts of faith, or gambles that either the success continues or there is a return to form.  Josh Johnson in the 7th is also a huge risk/reward pick.

Ian Kennedy, Michael Cuddyer and Adam Jones in the 7th strike me a good values.  I couldn't let Ryan Howard pass me by at the end of the 7th (I got him in the 16th round recently, but with a computer picking here, I knew he wouldn't last that long).

Rounds 8-15

Now we get into the interesting section of the draft.  My draft was skewed because of my experiment, but the rest of the picks will reveal interesting trends, if we examine the selection process.

The 8th round revealed how much depth exists in starting pitching.  Gallardo, Cain, Shields, Bumgarner, Kimbrel, Daniel Hudson and Wainwright are all high value pitchers.  The 9th round, alternatively, revealed that there was still hitting depth available.

C.J. Wilson and Beachy lasting until the 10th gives me hope for future drafts, assuring me that I can rely on my usual preferences to take pitchers later in drafts.  Closers don't start to go en masse until the 11th round, and this trend continues through the 14th round. 

There is plenty of offense to populate the draft through the first 14 rounds.  It is only when we get to the 15th round that some choices become dicer.  I believe  Francoeur, Trumbo, Cespedes and Carlos Lee all have potential to shine, but also could crash and burn.

Rounds 16-23hudson_tim

Now we see who is valued late and what players are available to fill those final roster slots.

I don't think Tim Hudson should be a 16th round pick, but I do think Dunn belongs down here.   

Neil Walker and Edwin Encarnacion are both good IF options late.  Belt, Harper, Trout, Lorenzo Cain and Morales are all worthwhile longshots here in the late rounds.  Jaime Garcia, Fister and Colby Lewis are all pitchers with significant upside late-another reason I don't take pitchers early.

I'd take Gaby Sanchez over Carlos Pena in the last few rounds any day.  Quentin's move to Petco has really hurt his value.  Rios, Vernon Wells and Dexter Fowler have fallen because of recent slumps, but could be great values this late.  I wanted Minor in the 20th, but was not disappointed to get Wandy there, either.  Grady Sizemore may prove to be a late round gem, but I'm not betting on that outcome.  We began to see middle relievers go in the 20th round, as all the named closers had gone off the board (except for James Johnson of the Orioles, and I don't want to roster him at all), and I fully embrace this trend. 

Denard Span if he's healthy is a steal in the 22nd round.  Brad Peacock intrigues me and I will be targeting him in deeper drafts.  Delmon Young, Angel Pagan and Dayan Viciedo are three OF options I plan to explore late in drafts, as I believe they can give decent stats for a minimal investment.

Next week I plan on holding another mock draft on Thursday, February 23rd.   8:30 PM EST seems to be a good time so far, but if you have differing needs, let me know via e-mail at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .  The link to the 3rd draft on CouchManagers is here, do make plans to join us for the fun.

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