After the 1971 season was completed, Steve Carlton was having contract issues in St. Louis.  Meanwhile, the Phillies were having the same issues with Rick Wise, and on February 25th, the two teams traded for each other’s baggage.

During the 1972 season, Steve Carlton won his first Cy Young award for a horrible Phillies team that won only 59 games all season. In fact, Lefty won 45.8% of the teams games and finished with a 27-10 record.

But what can Steve Carlton teach us about Fantasy Baseball?

During that memorable 1972 season, Carton led the league in Strikeouts (310) and innings pitched (346). On the surface, 310 strikeouts is a huge number. Image Justin Verlander heading into the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season with that many strikeouts the previous year.

Underneath the surface of Steve Carlton’s 1972 league leading 310 strikeouts is the number 8.06. That number represents the number of strikeouts that Lefty struck out on average per 9 inning game, or otherwise known as K/9.

A quick explanation of K/9

K/9 attempts to quantify the rate of strikeouts for a pitcher if he pitched nine innings during every appearance. If a pitcher has a K/9 of 9.00, it indicates that he strikes out 1 batter for every inning pitched. This stat attempts to measure pitcher dominance and establishes a baseline that both starters and relievers can be measured against.

Here are the two top ranked pitchers from the 2011 season:

• 2011 Justin Verlander – 250 Ks, 251 innings, 8.96 K/9
• 2011 Craig Kimbrel – 127 Ks, 77 innings, 14.84 K/9

Both pitchers has fantastic seasons in 2011, but the K/9 stat indicates Kimbrel was the more dominate when it comes to strike outs. Let’s image the Craig Kimbrel pitched 250 innings last year and maintained his 14.84 K/9 rate:

• Craig Kimbrel – 250 innings, 14.84 K/9 = 412 strikeouts

Wow! Don’t worry; I am not going to advise you to draft Craig Kimbrel during the first round of the draft.

Please keep in mind that K/9 will fluctuate from year to year.  While Carlton’s 8.06 K/9 in 1972 was a solid rate, he posted pedestrian numbers the previous two seasons (6.85 in 1970 and 5.66 in 1971). In fact Lefty did not reach the 8.0 K/9 plateau again until 1980. Most pitchers do not fluctuate that much unless injuries are involved.

What can Steve Carlton teach us about the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season?

The 1972 Phillies were a horrible team, and yet Lefty managed to dominate hitters all season long. Quite often, the best Fantasy pitchers are not on the best teams. Seriously, just because Ivan Nova (5.33 K/9) pitches for the Yankees does not mean he should be drafted this season. Teams like the Pirates and Padres present far better #4 and #5 options for Fantasy Baseball pitching staffs in 2012.

During the 2011 season, 37 starting pitchers posted a K/9 above 8.00 with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. Here are some of the more intriguing names that I found on the list:

• Brandon Beachy – 10.74 K/9
• Jonathan Sanchez – 9.06 K/9
• Erik Bedard – 8.70 K/9
• Edinson Volquez – 8.61 K/9
• Bud Norris – 8.52 K/9
• Scott Baker – 8.20 K/9
• A.J. Burnett – 8.19 K/9
• Chris Capuano – 8.17 K/9
• Max Scherzer – 8.03 K/9

With the exception of Max Scherzer (considered to be a disappointment in 2011) and Brandon Beachy (led the league in K/9), all of these pitchers play for weaker teams and Fantasy Baseball players have written off most of them.  Here is the ADP for all of them as well as the round selected in a 12-team league:

• Brandon Beachy – 133.70 – 12^th round
• Jonathan Sanchez – 302.10 – 26^th round
• Erik Bedard – 338.10 – 29^th round
• Edinson Volquez – 350.40 – 30^th round
• Bud Norris – 267.50 – 23^rd round
• Scott Baker – 257.70 – 22^nd round
• A.J. Burnett – 400.00 – undrafted
• Chris Capuano – 394.00 – 33^rd round
• Max Scherzer – 153.70 – 13^th round

OF the pitchers listed, Brandon Beachy has the best chance to be the “Steve Carlton” for 2012, and I also really like Max Scherzer’s draft value.  However, despite the K/9 rates I would avoid Jonathan Sanchez and Edinson Volquez due to their walk rates. The rest of the pitchers are worth a late draft pick to see how everything pans out early in the season.  Yes, that even applies to A.J. Burnett.

I am planning on targeting Beachy, Scherzer, Bedard, Norris, and Baker from this list.  Which starting pitchers are you targeting in 2012 fantasy baseball?