ROUND 18

Kelly Pfleiger, FantasyGameday.net – Jorge Cantu
Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Daisuke Matsuzaka
Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Ryan Doumit
Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com – Mark Buehrle
Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com – Cody Ross
Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Ervin Santana
Mike Siano, MLB.com – Francisco Liriano
Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Justin Duchscherer
Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – Todd Helton
Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Clay Buchholz
Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Colby Rasmus
Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – Kyle Blanks

ROUND 19

Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – Ben Sheets
Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Joba Chamberlain
Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Mike Napoli
Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – Dexter Fowler
Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Corey Hart
Mike Siano, MLB.com – Dan Bard
Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Drew Stubbs
Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com
Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com
Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
Kelly Pfleiger, FantasyGameday.net

My picks in the last 4 rounds went like this:

16. Chris Coghlan, OF, FLA
17. Bengie Molina, C, SF
18. Justin Ducscherer, SP, OAK
19. Corey Hart, OF, MIL

My though process in the 16th was to find an OF that provided some power and that wouldn’t hurt me in average. I don’t expect Coghlan to repeat his ROY numbers from 2009, but I do expect him to hit over .300 and provide double digit HRs. He should also be good for 10-15 steals and provides a chance at substantial upside without a ton of risk, beyond a sophomore slump.

Next up I decided to take a catcher, my least favorite offensive position. I won’t go on about these detestable players, except to say that I am not enamored with the thought that I have to select another catcher after this pick to finish up the draft. In any event, I took Bengie Molina, who became much more palatable after resigning with the Giants. I realize that Posey is waiting in AAA to take over the role, but in the meantime, Molina should start and will provide acceptable numbers as a 17th round pick.

I opted to take a chance of Ducscherer in the next round, as everything I’ve read points to him being fully recovered an d ready to go for the start of spring training. Ducscherer doesn’t fit the usual model for my starters in that he doesn’t provide a lot of strikeout potential, but I like his low ERA and WHIP numbers enough to roll the dice on him in 2010.

Finally, in the 19th round, I took Corey Hart. Hart was a major disappointment last year, but appendicitis is not a recurring injury and I can’t fault him for under-performing after undergoing surgery during the summer. He can be a 20/20 player and getting someone like him for my Utility spot is exciting. I believe he will slip in drafts unless he lights it up this spring, but he could provide nice value late in drafts for the owner willing to take a chance on his rebound in 2010 to his prior level of production.

As always, I am interested in any comments. I will post my final four picks once the draft has been completed, probably some time in mid-February. Thanks to everyone who has been following this slow mock since it began back in December.

FBTM Slow Mock Draft Results

In our latest draft, there were of course some items that made me go “Hmmm.” And here they are:

• Maurer is still going in the second round, and while I was initially on board, I am concerned about his power returning and the new park. Even so, if you want the best catcher in either league, you need to make a move here to get him on your roster.

• Seeing Morneau go as late as the end of the 4th round strikes me as wrong. I like him a lot, but I also cannot argue with the 8 1B taken earlier than the Minnesota first sacker, 9 if you count Dunn.

• Kendry Morales in the 5th round could turn out to be a real steal, and I believe Tim McLeod has given me a fine key to succeeding in my draft strategy this year. One reason why I recommend participating in mock drafts is just to see what other players are thinking, especially those that you know you will be competing against. Of course, that works both ways, and while I play to win, I also feel a sense of duty as a writer to educate. So, viddy well, my droogies.

• Justin Verlander being selected before Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright, while a shock, is a decision I agree with entirely. Except for the aberration that occurred in 2008, Verlander is an ace and deserves this place in any draft.

• Taking Tommy Hanson in the seventh and Matt Weiters in the 8th speak to the promise these two players hold for their owners. I’ve heard Lenny Melnick talk glowingly about both players and I must say, I, too, am willing to drink the kool-aid regarding these two youngsters.

• I was kind of surprised that Jiminez went right before Beckett. This says loads about how far Ubaldo has come since the beginning of last season.

• Drew Stubbs has tremendous potential, especially in the 19th round. The same can be said about Doumit in the 20th round. Both were terrific values this late in a draft.

• For Ben Sheets to last until the 23rd round speaks to his injury history. I’ve covered Sheets in a guest post I put up on Pigskin Addiction detailing my Dead to Me list. Even so, he’s a great risk/reward here at the end of the draft.

• I like the fact that 3 catchers were taken in the last 3 rounds. I, as anyone who has read any of my draft strategy articles can attest, hate drafting catchers. I waited to take a catcher late in the draft, but these 3 drafters have me beat by a mile. Hats off, gentlemen.

I don’t comment on my own selections, since I know I would be unable to be totally objective. You, dear readers, however, are free to comment as you see fit. The link below will take you the draft results as I posted them on Google Docs.

FGD Mock Draft #3

The next draft is set for Wednesday, 2/10 at 8 PM EST. Password is FGD2010. Hope to see you there on Mock Draft Central,.

Recently, I participated in a mock draft held by PigskinAddiction.com (obviously the site is firmly embedded in fantasy football, but is branching out into baseball).  The site’s owner, Ryan, graciously provided me a copy of their draft kit package.  I am not here to tell you that you must part with your cash for this product, but I have read it through and found several things about the kit that I especially like.  It’s up to you how you prepare for the upcoming fantasy season, but for the cost of an out-of-date magazine that you might pick up at your local bookseller, PigskinAddiction has put together a nice product that has a wealth of detail related in a friendly, humorous fashion.

Things I like about the guide:

1.  The tone of the guide is down to earth and written with an eye toward humor and sarcasm, which I find refreshing (your mileage may vary).

2.  The list of sleepers and busts is extensive and provides a sound basis for each entry.  It is just as important to know who avoid at the draft as it is to figure out which players should be available late to pay big dividends.

3.  The cheatsheets provide for AL and NL only leagues, something that is extremely rare in the industry.  (NB- ESPN is offering AL/NL only leagues for the first time this year.  If you think it is tough to find enough good players to fill a 25 player or larger roster, just try your hand at a AL or NL only league.  Talk about scarcity!)

4.  There are also auction cheatsheets, which are very valuable for those of us who like to be able to draft whatever players we covet.  The values seem realistic, but even if your league doesn’t go by the standard $260 budget, these values give you a jump off point that you can tweak to fit your league’s format.

5.  The individual player profiles give you the last 3 year’s stats with projections for 2010.  Not too shabby, and so long as you accept their expertise, potentially very helpful when trying to decide between several players for your squad.

6.  The mock draft results are included in the guide, as well as comments from all the participants.  Personally,I love to see my thoughts in black and white, but reading the other drafters’ comments provides insight you normally don’t get from a draft guide.

All in all, I like the guide and will be using the auction values for my AL only auction league when I set up my spreadsheet later in March.

I plan to review some other draft kits as I receive them, and hopefully will provide our readers with a bit of guidance regarding the features available if any are so inclined to use a kit to prepare for the 2010 season.

Now, I am ready to set up the fourth mock draft, but would like to solicit suggestions for format changes.  I added 5 bench spots to our third draft, which may turn out to be too many.  I am inflexible about keeping the drafts as 1 catcher leagues, as I see no purpose in having to roster 2 catchers, except to penalize most owners by making them keep a lower level player in action all season.  I am open to any other suggestions, however, and would ask that you put forward your ideas in the comments for me to incorporate into our next drafts.

You will be able to sign up for draft # 4 sometime after Wednesday, prolly Thursday morning.  As always, the password is FGD2010.  Also we still have 5 open spots on our Couch Managers draft.  To find it, you need to search for draft #4409 via the address bar, but I would hope to see you there.

But when exactly is “too early” to select starting pitchers?  How long do you wait?

These are the questions that no one is willing to answer.  I suppose there is good reason for that. Since there are so many variables in a draft, predicting exactly what round is a good place to select starting pitching is virtually impossible.  As I mention previously, Fantasy Phenoms subscribes to the theory that you should take seven hitters and then follow those picks with seven pitchers.  That is certainly a definitive answer to when you should select pitchers, but it is extremely structured and does not allow flexibility when several other owners are using the same strategy. Of course, who you take is completely up to you.

When numerous owners are using the same type of strategy, much like what is happening in the FBTM mock draft, there is an influx of value with starting pitching.  During the 5th and 6th rounds, top tier starters are in abundance and thus offer extreme value to the owner who .  However, by round 14 this value shifts completely the other way.  Don’t read into what I am saying, there is absolutely nothing wrong with any of the strategies mentioned thus far.
So how long can you wait?

I tried a theory in an expert draft from a few weeks ago. The mock draft involved 12 teams and I picked in the 10th slot.  In an effort to test how long you can possibly wait to select starting pitching, I waited until the 9th round to select my first pitcher (Heath Bell) and then followed that pick up with another closer (Brian Wilson).  Then I selected two more offensive position players with my next two picks.  So… in essence, I waited until the 13th round to select my first starting pitcher. For reference, here is my entire pitching staff:

• Scott Baker (round 13)
• Ryan Dempster (round 14)
• Roy Oswalt (round 15)
• John Danks (round 16)
• Jonathan Sanchez (round 19)
• Heath Bell (round 9)
• Brian Wilson (round 10)
• Matt Lindstrom (round 18)
• Scott Downs (round 20)

Is it the most dominate staff from the mock draft?  No.  But that is not the point.  All five starting pitchers can add significant value to my team, and if they fail (since the article from CBS points out how likely that actually is), how much have I really invested in them?  Each year there are pitchers that went undrafted at the start of the year, and become mainstays on a fantasy roster.  In fact I will go even farther with this view point.  As many pitchers that arrive during the first half of the season, there are just as many that arrive during the second half.

In conclusion, there is no wrong strategy to drafting starting pitching.  However, it appears that waiting longer than the rest of the owners in the league may prove to be a viable strategy.  By doing this, you can build a strong offense, and allow you to trade out pitchers as needed.  Besides, hitters are easier to trade during the season than pitchers.  I believe the roster flexibility, strong offense, and breakout potential give you the better opportunity to win your league.

So where do we go from here?

There are still some unfinished plans from last year that I still want to accomplish.  There will also be a complete site redesign sometime during the summer.  But as for the direction of the writers… there will be more baseball related articles appearing in 2010.  Not only are we going to give you a glimpse into our leagues, and the decisions we are faced with, but we want to include general baseball news and notes.  The goal is to make this a well rounded baseball site that can offer information from many different angles.  All done with the goal of providing the proper information in a timely manner so that you can use it to win fantasy baseball championships.

Of course this flood of information will begin with the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report.  There will be two versions released.  The first will have all the initial ADP data, and the customizable tiers.  The second will have numerous player notes, trending reports, and composite rankings from the major sites.

So hang on… this is going to be a great ride in 2010.  Thanks again for all the support!

Kelly

So what do they have to offer?  Currently Baseball Press is featuring 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings for each position.  They also have been offering their thoughts regarding recent signings, and trades.  I have checked out the information that they have posted, and this is a must visit site.

Make sure you stop by the site, and tell Reggie that I sent you.

As with any mock draft, there are always picks that intrigue me, based on where they are made.  Some I consider to be great values, some I question as being a bit too early, some just make me go “Hmmm.”

As I will do with each draft, I have collected the picks by rounds and by teams, and put a link to the Google Doc at the end of this article, so anyone with an interest can review the draft and hopefully, comment on the draft.  We love to read comments, because we are interested in learning from our readers as we hope they can learn from us.

Early picks that made me sit up and take notice:

My pick of Utley as the fourth overall pick may seem a bit early, but I believe he is far and away the best 2B available in both leagues.  Plus, I tend to fill my infield before I go for OF help or pitching.

I don’t disagree with the Teixiera pick immediately after mine, but I have seen experts suggest that his value is not that of a 1st round pick, equating him with Youklis who in this draft went in the 3rd round.  Certainly, I would take  either Howard of Fielder over Tex, just because of the disparity in power.

Mauer continues to go early, here in the 2nd round.  I have no problem with taking him, except…I don’t know how his new stadium will affect his power numbers, or indeed if his power will return this season.  It is entirely possible that last year was an outlier, but I believe in him as the best catcher overall.  In one catcher leagues, however, I might pass and wait for McCann, or just let the position sit empty until the end of the draft.  Minnesota’s new stadium also affects where I will select Morneau, who went in the fifth round here.

Jason Bay as a third round pick strikes me as a tad early, but I also do not believe in the gloom and doom predictions over his signing with the Mets.  I expect 80/90/28/.285/12 from him at least, which is worth a 3rd round pick.

Cliff Lee being selected as the 12th SP is not a pick I can argue with, but I have seen him go much later.  I like his chances in the AL West against fairly weak division opponents, and as I recall, he won the Cy Young trophy in the AL on Cleveland in a similarly weak division.

The 5th pick of the sixth round surprised me, as I believe 3B is the shallowest position in baseball this year.  As the 7th 3B taken (8th if you count Youklis’ eligibility), I think Figgins has great value here.  I know the argument is that he doesn’t provide any power from a corner infield position, but the steals will certainly be there, as will the run production and the .300+ average. The falloff at the 3B spot is evident when you realize that the next 3B didn’t come off the board until the 9th round when Gordon Beckham was chosen.

Denard Span is a fine player, but I would never have selected him over Ethier, or for that matter, Carlos Quentin (or for that matter, the first player discussed in the next section).  Those are personal choices, however, and Span should put up fine numbers for his owner.

Mid-round (8-15) picks that intrigue me:

As the second pick of the 8th round, I love Jay Bruce.  I know fantasy owners are leery of him after last season, but if he is fully recovered from his injuries, I expect a monster season from the Red’s young outfielder.

Later in the same round, I would have swapped the places of Peavy and Wandy Rodriguez.  I like Peavy, certainly, but his move to the AL will undoubtedly push his stats in the wrong direction, and I firmly believe that Wandy is set to become an ace.  His numbers keep trending in the right direction, and as an early convert to Wandy-ism, I will draft him whenever I can this coming season, in leagues where I haven’t kept him from last year.

I already mentioned that Beckham was at the head of the tier of 3B after the top seven were taken, but his pending eligibilty at 2B makes him extraordinarily valuable this late in the draft (OK,it’s not really late, but it is relatively late for a 3B selection).

Ian Stewart is a similar situation, having dual eligibilty.  I expect him to break out this season with a full time gig in Colorado, and thus see his selection as a value pick here.

Jordan really ticked me off when he grabbed Brett Anderson in the 12th round, as I had queued him up for my next selection.

A word here about Mock Draft Central’s rankings.  Brett Anderson is ranked somewhere near the bottom third of SPs, which is IMHO way too low.  As such, unless you are familiar with the site, you will never end up drafting him, as savvy MDC vets will pick him before you ever see his name pop up on the SP list.  There are numerous other examples that I will not go into here, but this is the reason I strongly urge any fantasy player to participate in a number of mock drafts on the site hosting his/her league to uncover these ranking quirks and exploit them to his/her advantage.

Anyway, a great selection by Jordan, as Anderson projects out to be an excellent SP3 and if he pitches as I expect, a steal and worthy of SP2 status.

In round 13, we see Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew go back to back as the 8th and 9th picks of the round.  I like Escobar, and understand how Drew fell from his lofty position last year based on ho-hum 2009 results, but I would reverse these picks.  I see Drew’s upside as being much greater than Escobar, who last season put up what I project to be his upside numbers.  Just my opinion.  Let’s hear yours.

Alex Rios is, to put a point on it, a pisser.  He consistently disappoints.  I expect him to be a 20/20 guy, but he can never put both the power and speed together.  I suspect if he slumps early this season, Ozzie gets fed up and Rios will be collecting splinters by June.   Not worth my time, he is DEAD TO ME until further notice (nb: Dead to Me is a pending article I am putting together).

As the 10th pick of the 14th round, Adrian Beltre is a superb value pick.  I never expected him to repeat the numbers he put up in 2004, that being a true outlier, but he has always put up decent power and speed stats when healthy.  Boston will undoubtedly prove to be a fine home to put up 25 HR and 10-15 SB numbers. and in that lineup, he should get a chance to score and drive in substantial runners.

Picking a player who is talking about retiring (posturing, most likely, but even so…) is a risky situation in the 15th round.  I would pass on Damon until he finds a team.

Late Round Observations:
Like Damon, Buchholz’s status is risky until he nails down a SP spot.

Vladdy is also Dead to Me, but I can’t fault this pick, based on his pst performance in Arlington.  Still, I hate drafting DH only players, as they limit your flexibility, and thus, for this reason and last season’s disappointment, I wll pass on Guerrero this season.

I do not trust Dice-K, or his BBs.  Not a bad pick in the 18th round, but not for me.

Jefff Nieman is a decent flier at the end of the 18th round, and possibly should go earlier.  Must research his projections further.

Marco Scutaro should do well in Boston, although last year might have been a career year for him.  Even so, at this late stage, he’s well worth a pick.

I’ve read recently that Bedard won’t be ready to pitch until June or July.  If that is the case, given the fact that he has no team at this point, I wouldn’t risk a pick on him in the 19th round.

Late round fliers that I respect are Madison Bumgarner (19-9), Michael Brantley (20-5), Colby Lewis (21-3), and Matt Latos (22-10).  Any of these picks can deliver big dividends for what is essentially a throw away pick.  We all make late round picks that can be dumped for hot players, but if these work out exactly right, the owner that made the pick can either trade for great value or ride their luck to a top 3 finish.

Ryan Madson is a good insurance pick, as most fantasy players expect Lidge to blow up and Madson is next in line to close.

Dotel is the closer for Pittsburgh until we find out differently.  Closers on bad teams still collect 30saves if they last all season, so this is a great value pick.

Martin Prado gets no love, but his multiple position eligibility makes him extremely valuable this late.  Love this pick

J.J. Hardy has always been a hole in a fantasy lineup, but at this late spot, he’s worth a flier.

Finally, Duchschere is a real find, if he is fully recovered.  Late in the last round, he is worth a gamble, one I have also made this mock draft season.

Please consider joining us on Wednesday evenings at 8 PM EST on Mock Draft Central.  I will be mixing up the format of the drafts, just to keep things interesting.  Password is always FGD2010.  Come share your knowledge and prepare for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.

Draft Results

Round 16

1. Kelly Pfleiger, FantasyGameday.net – Franklin Gutierrez
2. Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Brad Lidge
3. Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Brian Fuentes
4. Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com – Ryan Franklin
5. Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com – Matt Capps
6. Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Octavio Dotel
7. Mike Siano, MLB.com – Rafael Furcal
8. Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Chris Coghlan
9. Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – Casey McGehee
10. Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Adam LaRoche
11. Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Vladimir Guerrero
12. Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – James Loney

Round 17

1. Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – Juan Rivera
2. Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Rickie Weeks
3. Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Lastings Milledge
4. Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – Carlos Santana
5. Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Bengie Molina
6. Mike Siano, MLB.com – Edwin Jackson
7. Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Magglio Ordonez
8. Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com – Carlos Zambrano
9. Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com – Ted Lilly
10. Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Miguel Tejada
11. Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Chris Davis

What do all the closers taken have in common?  All should have solid jobs to start the season.  You already know about my concerns with Lidge, and Fuentes apparently has just as many question marks.  Although, I think I have more confidence in Fuentes than I probably should have.  Unfortunately, several of the players that I wanted with this pick did not fall far enough.  Specifically I was looking at Adam LaRoche or James Loney to be my corner infield backups for Chipper Jones.  As I already have had admitted in the comments section of another post, I am beginning to have buyers remorse regarding my selection of Chipper.

Watching the selections of the past two rounds, the value of starting pitching has begun to increase again.  This is what happens with some of the strategies that are being used.  Because so many owners stuck with their plans of taking hitters early before proceeding to pitching, the overall value of pitching drastically changed throughout the draft.  During rounds 5-8, pitching was plentiful and the overall value was high.  Once those owners began selecting all the pitcher they could, the value dropped drastically.  Now those same owners are back to focusing on hitters, and the pitching values are beginning to appear once again.

So with my 17th round selection I am selecting… Kevin Slowey

As I mentioned in my last posting for the FBTM mock draft, I had some concerns regarding the injury Slowey had in 2009.  In fact, if you take out the last two starts he attempted to make while injured, his numbers were fantastic.  The guy has excellent control, and knows how to pitch.  I managed to dig up some information regarding his recovery process, and there have been no setbacks.  The original time table for his recovery was 2-4 months.  Since his surgery was in August, at worst, he would be ready to pitch in December.  Since his injury had nothing to do with ligaments or tendons, I am going to have confidence in selecting Slowey.

As easy as the previous pick may seem, this next one will cause a debate between to Florida Marlins that may have similar numbers in 2010. The final decision might be position eligibility rather than personal preference or actually statistical differences.  So who am I debating between?  Cody Ross and Jorge Cantu.  Both players can hit around the .270 mark, and both have 20+ home run potential.  When I compare the two, the only significant difference revolves around their BB/K ratios.  Until last season, both players were very similar, but Cantu took a large step forward in 2009.

So with my 18th round pick I am selecting… Jorge Cantu

With the improved BB/K ratio being the largest difference, in addition to the corner infield eligibility, Cantu is the better pick for my team.  The league average BABIP tells me that his batting average will remain at it’s current levels.  Perhaps with a little bit on luck, a .280 batting average will not be unattainable. One other room for improvement in 2010 may be his home run totals.  He managed to post 16 long balls while having a below league average HR/FB ratio of 7.4%.  Cantu’s career HR/FB ratio is at 10.7%.  If you were to plug his career HR/FB mark into his stats from last season Cantu would have posted 23 home runs.  An interesting byproduct of that same adjustment is that his batting average would have an excellent .297.  If he posted those numbers last year, do you really think he would still be around in the 18th round?

I believe Kelly has posted our picks through the 13th round, so I will just put up rounds 14 and 15 here:

Round 14

1. Kelly Pfleiger, FantasyGameday.net – Chipper Jones
2. Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Roy Oswalt
3. Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Ryan Dempster
4. Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com – Tim Hudson
5. Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com – Kurt Suzuki
6. Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Chad Qualls
7. Mike Siano, MLB.com – Jorge Posada
8. Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Garrett Jones
9. Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – David Price
10. Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Michael Gonzalez
11. Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Neftali Feliz
12. Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – Jonathan Sanchez

Round 15

1. Brett Greenfield, FantasyPhenoms.com – Kerry Wood
2. Todd Habiger, RotoRob.com – Geovany Soto
3. Cory Schwartz, MLB.com – Chris Iannetta
4. Chris Mulligan, FantasyPros911.com – Miguel Montero
5. Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net – Ryan Theriot
6. Mike Siano, MLB.com – Jhonny Peralta
7. Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com – Everth Cabrera
8. Tim McLeod, RotoRob.com – Erick Aybar
9. Kevin Orris, FantasyPros911.com – Ryan Ludwick
10. Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Johnny Damon
11. Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com – Brad Hawpe
12. Kelly Pfleiger, FantasyGameday.net

My picks for the last 6 rounds were:

10th  Juan Pierre, OF, CHW

11th  Andrew Bailey, RP, OAK

12th  Julio Borbon, OF, TEX

13th  Frank Francisco, RP, TEX

14th  Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, PIT

15th  Ryan Theriot, SS, CHC

By the way, anyone that wants to see the entire draft to date, I have posted a spreadsheet with picks by round/team and position, along with my projections for my roster at Google Docs.  Just click on the link to view.

In the 10th round, I realized that my roster was lacking any real speed aside from Jeter and McCutchen.  Even with those two players, I was going to be sorely lacking in the steals category, so I made a decision to pick up Pierre, who I haven’t had the time of day for in a couple of years.  The fact that he is now in Chicago, and presumably playing regularly for Ozzie Guillen’s White Sox, made him a much more palatable pick this season.  I expect him to hit .290/.300 or better and swipe 35-40 bases.  He will also help in the run category, and I can forgive his lack of power given the rest of my roster to this point.

Next round, I took my first closer.  I have waited on closers in the past and was burned by that decision.  Now, I have determined it is better to grab two proven closers by the time I am done with the 15th round.  I liked Bailey’s performance last season, stepping into the closer role without missing a beat.  I would anticipate that his ERA will be sub 3.00, a WHIP of 1.15 or better and 35-40 saves.  Even if Oakland isn’t an elite team, their closer will get 30+ saves without question, especially playing in the weak AL West.

As my 12th round selection, I took Borbon for his speed, just like Pierre.  I realize this pick carries more risk than any of the others I have made to this point in the draft, but I wanted to secure at least a mid-point finish in steals.  Borbon will run, so long as he plays in Texas’ lineup, and assuming 500 ABs, he should steal the same or slightly more bases than Pierre.  I also like him to hit for average and score some runs in that powerful Ranger lineup.   With Pierre and Borbon in my OF, I now feel confident that I have good balance on my roster for both speed and power.

For my next pick, I grabbed my second closer, Borbon’s teammate, Frank Francisco.  My belief is he retains the closer role, but the injury risk did give me pause as I considered my options.  I like Francisco’s potential return more than that offered by Nunez, Aardsma, Qualls, or Mike Gonzalez, all of whom went after my pick through the rest of the 13th and 14th rounds.  If healthy, I would expect 35 saves with an ERA in the mid 3.00 range and a WHIP around 1.2 or so.

The 14th round was where I grabbed my CI in Jones.  He’s another risk/reward pick, and as long as the NL pitchers don’t figure him out, he should provide more than a bit of power and double digit steals, as well as decent R & RBI production.  The average is a bit low, but 4 out of 5 is not bad.

The fifteenth slot on my roster went to my MI, The Riot, as I like to refer to him.  Another guy who provides decent production later in the draft, I see him as a run and stolen base provider, whose BA won’t kill me.  I thought about taking Orlando Cabrera, but project Theriot to have better speed production and thus went with him.

My next post will cover rounds 16-20, at which time my roster should be pretty well set and I will simply be filling in my pitching staff and drafting catchers (ugh).

I would be interested in any comments on my selections or the players I let pass by.  After all, the mock draft process exists to allow us to learn and prepare for our actual drafts, and I am always interested in receiving constructive criticism if I can improve my draft techniques.