The RHP/LHP splits for Youk are a bit strange. His first full year he was better off righties power and average wise. In 2007 his power was still way higher off righties, but his average was only 3 points different (putting in work in the offseason). This year the power trend continues, only the average trend is the other way. It has only been 11 ABs but he is hitting .364 off lefties. His walk rate is higher off lefties too and it has been his entire career. Apparently early in his MLB career he could see it but not hit it (relatively), and now he is doing both.

His home/away splits are strange as well. Fenway provided a nice home for him in 06 when he hit .310 there (compared to .247 on the road). 07 is a different story. In fact, almost a reverse story. .311-.265 the other way. This is puzzling. In theory he should live off the monster, but his doubles numbers are the same (close enough) in Fenway as they are on the road.
Youk has been tagged with the reputation as a streaky hitter. His monthly splits over his career prove that while this is true, there is little rhyme or reason to when they occur. He does seem to wear down over the course of the season. I’d chalk this up to playing every day harder than most guys. That being said, it doesn’t matter when you chalk it up to, he has stunk up the second half (the important half for you h2h owners) every year he has been in the bigs. I smell a deal to a team who is trying to move into the playoffs…

Here is the most important thing for fantasy owner that Youk brings. His first year after the count reaching 3-2 his K/bb ratio was 48/25. 07? 42/22. He has a phenomenal eye and is infinitely more valuable in a league that scores OBP and walks. In 5×5’s he obviously still has high value for the reasons above, but for those other leagues mentioned, he is severely underrated. (I am looking at you FGD Keeper league).

Short one this week, school finals and moving and such. We’ll be back with Finish the Trade part 2 next week.

Atlanta Braves: I took a shot with Rafael Soriano for one of my teams, but that’s not working out too well. I can’t kick myself, as injuries will happen and there’s still a lot left in the tank for Soriano as a future closer, but it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll return to the role in 2008. Peter Moylan had a brief stint that didn’t net much, before landing next to Soriano on the DL and passing the torch to Manny Acosta, who is the current closer and may provide a small bushel of saves for a while. Stick with Acosta for the immediate future, as he’ll be receiving the bulk of the save opportunities, but be ready to hear this name come up as the next in line: John Smoltz. Smoltz has already voiced his intentions to abandon the starting role in favor of the bullpen, and he’s proven a solid closer in the past. The role will be his when he’s ready for it, so be prepared to put everyone else in the Braves’ bullpen on the back burner when the time comes. Just don’t completely write off Soriano, especially for 2009, as a potential source of saves.

Colorado Rockies: This situation was not about injury, but ineffectiveness on the part of Manny Corpas. Brian Fuentes, who lost the role a year ago after a DL stint allowed Corpas to shine in the interim, has reclaimed the role that made him an all-star the past three seasons. I’ve already picked him up on the very fantasy roster that needed a replacement for Soriano. I look forward to reaping the benefits of the promotion for Fuentes, and you should too if you can or already did grab him. Keep Corpas on your radar, though, because he may find himself in the position to notch saves again. All it takes is a dismal record for the Rockies entering July, and we could see Fuentes dealt near the deadline to a contender for youngsters. He is, after all, a southpaw who is tough on lefty hitters, and they tend to be in demand. Otherwise, Mike Myers would’ve started playing golf a long time ago.

Toronto Blue Jays: Despite Scott Downs notching saves this week, he is not the closer, B.J. Ryan is. Downs did not start the ninth inning in either game he finished against the White Sox, but Ryan pitched a full ninth for the save in the middle game of the series. Recovering from Tommy John surgery is a process, and you need to be patient as Ryan returns to form. It may take some time for him to pitch back-to-back games again, and there will be plenty of save opportunities that will be lost to Toronto relievers sitting on the waiver wire, but Ryan owners will be rewarded for playing the waiting game, as relievers don’t get paid that kind of money for their role to be diminished more than medically necessary.

Batters: Low Batting Average for Balls in Play (BABIP) with a high Line Drive Percentage (LD%) :
Carlos Beltran (.246, 25.4%) – So don’t worry about the .204 batting average
Nick Johnson (.226, 26.9%) – His average will go up too, as long as he can stay on the field
Stephen Drew (.260, 25.6%) – Has not produced great numbers yet, but possibly is a cheap replacement for Tulowitzki
Josh Bard (.241, 24.1%) – Again, the average will improve, but he is pretty low on my list for catching options

Batters: High BABIP, low LD%:
Randy Winn (.316, 11.4%) – Hasn’t been really good, and this suggests he’s been lucky. I wouldn’t let his track record stop me from taking a chance on a higher upside outfielder.
AJ Pierzynski (.293, 11.9%) – In the last 15 games he has lost 124 points off his average. We all know who the real AJ is.
Casey Kotchman (.319, 12.4%) - A bit of a surprise here, I would have thought his LD% was higher. I don’t think he keeps up his current pace, but it won’t be a terrible drop off.
Dan Uggla (.297, 13.8%) – He has a career 16% LD rate and a BABIP of .300, so while unusual for most players this is pretty consistent for Uggla.

To show how unlikely it is to sustain these type of ratios, I did a “trial run” for this article a week before and eight players who would have been mentioned no longer qualified.

Pitchers: High ERA, low WHIP:
Johnny Cueto (5.40, 1.09) – He is having major problems with men on base, giving up a 1.152 OPS. Only more starts will tell if this is an anomaly or not.
Scott Baker (4.50, 1.17) – He’s interesting and might be on your waiver wire. Edit: Now a health watch after leaving his start early with groin troubles.
Randy Wolf (3.57, 1.13) – Displays his inconsistency. So far the body of work has been worth the rough games.
Greg Maddux (3.76, 1.12) – Another pitcher who could throw a gem or get shelled at any point.
Brian Bannister (4.04, 1.07) – His last start (3 IP, 7 ER) widened the split.
Andy Sonnanstine (4.42, 1.16) – His strand rate is only 50%

Pitchers: High WHIP, low, ERA:
Fausto Carmona (2.60, 1.73) – His sinker generates lots of double plays, but last year he totaled 3.06/1.20
John Maine (3.48, 1.51) – Hitters are .193 with men on.
Kevin Millwood (3.86, 1.58) – He’s not for real, and his ERA at home is 5.55
Odalis Perez (3.18, 1.34) - .213 with men on, .135 in scoring position.
Dustin McGowan (3.57, 1.50) – Recent command issues have pushed his WHIP up, but keeping opponents’ AVG to .203 with men on has helped. The stuff is there, but he could go either way.
Tim Lincecum (1.73, 1.38) – Nothing you didn’t know, he’s good but not prime Pedro Martinez good.
Jeremy Bonderman (3.86, 1.60) – 5 of 20 runs have been unearned, and he’s walking almost 6 batters per nine. I couldn’t hit the eject button any faster.
Vicente Padilla (3.50, 1.53) – A complete game shutout this early in the year tends to distort things.

Pitchers: High LD%, low BABIP:
Mike Mussina (.268, 26.5%) – He’s had a tough go of it already, what happens if this balances out?
Cole Hamels (.245, 23.1%) – Don’t panic, but an ERA closer to last year (3.39) is more realistic than this year (2.70).
Jair Jurrjens (.245, 22.5%) – Depending on what you can get he could be a sell high, but I think he can pitch the season and not hurt your team.
Greg Maddux (.269, 24.2%) and Chris Young (.254, 25.6%) – Can’t blame it on Petco, the large outfields should make line drives harder to catch if anything. Given the track records, I would not alter expectations based on this data.

Pitchers: Low LD%, high BABIP:
Andy Pettite (.302, 14.2%) – By these numbers, he has been a bit unlucky.
James Shields (.293, 15.1%) – After getting shelled by the Red Sox he is probably near the league average.
Jonathan Sanchez (.304, 15.7%) – Only 33.7 IP, no reason the numbers will not even out.

Again, there was a high turnover in the pitchers that qualified as outliers from only a week ago. My guess is very few players can hold these splits if they play regularly to the All Star break.

I am currently in the middle of reviving one of my teams by pulling off a blockbuster to get Cole Hamels and Hanley Ramirez for at least 3-4 prospects and 1-2 players. This is a 30 team Dynasty league in which a combo of real life and league contracts are used for full rosters and minor league systems. That is the short version of the rules. It is as close to MLB as any league is ever going to be.

To start this off I’ll say I was dealt one of the worst hands possible entering the league this year. I was given a team that had been moved around a ton and not very well. I also got the “Marlins” franchise, which means I have significantly less money to spend than every other team. The following is a list of my “useful” guys:

C:Victor Martinez 08:$4.25M, 09:$5.7M, 10:$7M club option ($0.25M buyout)
CI:Ryan Zimmerman $400,000 (Prospect 08-10)
MI:Ian Kinsler $400,000 (Prospect 08-10)
OF:Chris Duncan $400,000 (Prospect 08-10)
OF:Andruw Jones 08:$9M, 09:$15M
UTIL: Ivan Rodriguez 08: 3.5 09: 3.5
SP:Joe Blanton 08:$3.7M
RP:Huston Street 08:$3.3M
BN:Anibal Sanchez $400,000 (Prospect 08-10)
BN:Jeff Niemann 08: $1M 09: $1.1M
Minors: LeBlanc, Truinfel, Latos, Paulino, Wood, Headley

Everyone else are stopgaps with bad contracts or lower tier prospects that have little to no effect in a deal for Hamels and/or Hanley (both of which have min contracts of 400,000).

Since you are all dying to see how trades work in this sort of league, I thought I’d give you an inside look at the dialogue between the Padres and Marlins.

Marlins: I am interested in either or both Hanley and Hamels, if it is possible to deal a combo of prospects and MLB guys I would rather do that. I would like to keep 3/4 of Headley, Kinsler, Zim, and Wood. There is plenty of talent in my minors… have at it and let me know what you think you’re interested in.

Low balling how much I would have to give ultimately. Not that selling the pupu platter of farm guys wouldn’t be enough, but this still is fantasy and he is going to need some immediate production back as well

Padres: Hmm, you do seem to have a lot of talent. I’ll rank them for myself then sort it out.

1. Zimmerman
2. Kinsler
3. Wood
4. Headley
5. Niemann
6. Triunfel

I agree with this although I’d swap 3-4 and 6-5. Which means Neimann and Wood are definitely going to be involved since he has a higher opinion of them than I do. This is basic trading that I trust you all know.

To get Hanley you would definitely need to send me more than one of those 4 guys. To get Hamels I might be able to accept only 1 but i would need more. I wouldn’t mind a Chris Duncan throw in because my outfield is “poop”. (Adam Lind is on you bench sir, I am not sure why)

Hamels for
Wood, Niemann, Triunfel, Duncan
OR
Hanley for
Kinsler, Wood, Triunfel, Niemann, Duncan.

These are just thoughts, get back to me.

asking for 5 min salary guys in return for one guy is probably not going to fly even if it is Hanley. Asking price to start off for Hamels I was pleasantly surprised with. but my team is really not in a good way, I’m shooting for both these guys, prospects be damned…..to a degree

Marlins: A. Lind is about to help your OF situation big time, but Duncan can be tossed in I can handle Spillborges starting for me.

I’d just like to throw this out there, just to show you I am serious about this, because my team is not very good. And If I can get some guys with nice contracts I can start to build around them.

Kinsler, Wood, Neinmann, Trunifel, Duncan, Paulino, and one of these three (Latos, A pick, or LeBlanc).
for both of them

I do not mean this as a shot at your knowledge but please look up Latos Paulino and Leclanc before you immediately say no. I am basically throwing my farm system outside of Headley at you.

I assume we will go back and forth more before we hammer this out.

With the last message I tried to be as polite as possible without scaring him. That is a long list of names with plenty of talent. If you notice the names missing are Zimmerman and Headley. Duncan is virtually meaningless to me besides his great contract. So essentially I trade a 2b stud and 4 prospects for the best roto player alive (yes I said it) and a young high K rate pitcher on a great run support team. None of these prospects are can’t miss guys like Longoria, Bruce, or Kershaw… but they are worth taking onto your team any day for their upside.

I invite you to try to predict the ending of this sequence of talks. I will be posting it next week so you can all check your answers if you’d like.

So here are the top 25 in K/9 with their K/100:

1. John Smoltz ATL - 12.00, 8.23
2. Jonathan Sanchez SF - 11.57, 7.21
3. Tim Licecum SF - 11.37, 7.08
4. Edison Volquez CIN - 10.13, 6.72
5. Josh Beckett BOS - 9.91, 7.39
6. CC Sabathia CLE - 9.28, 5.46
7. Wandy Rodriguez HOU - 9.26, 6.70
8. Daisuke Matsuzaka BOS - 8.79, 5.42
9. Todd Wellemeyer STL - 8.76, 6.14
10. Javier Vazquez CHW - 8.61, 6.16
11. Randy Wolf SD - 8.59, 6.19
12. Clay Buchholtz BOS - 8.48, 5.53
13. Chris Young SD - 8.48, 5.14
14. Bronson Arroyo CIN - 8.42, 4.71
15. Johnny Cueto CIN - 8.37, 6.62
16. Johan Santana NYM - 8.31, 6.32
17. Felix Hernandez SEA - 8.26, 6.29
18. Cliff Lee CLE - 8.24, 6.60
19. Micah Owings ARI - 8.13, 5.88
20. Scott Baker MIN - 8.10, 6.09
21. Matt Cain SF - 7.99, 4.89
22. Jake Peavy SD - 7.95, 5.72
23. Oliver Perez NYM - 7.90, 4.85
24. Aaron Harang CIN - 7.87, 5.74
25. Ben Sheets MIL - 7.71, 6.25

So what does all of this mean? Not too much considering the sample size, but you have to start somewhere. It does mean that John Smoltz is the Chipper Jones of pitching staffs. Always hurting and missing games, but when he plays, he is a fantasy monster. I also find it very interesting that only 8 of the 25 K/9 leaders are from the American League. However, those same pitchers seem to be the most inefficient of the bunch.

So where are th bargains? Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Wolf, and Wandy Rodriguez seem to be ones that constantly are dropped after one bad outing. So they might be available out on the waiver wire. That is except for Sanchez since he just has his most dominate outing this past weekend. Todd Wellemeyer is another one that people are not completely sold on yet, but they might want to be. He has an outstanding 3.00 K/BB ratio, and he has been efficient in his pitches. In fact, he is averaging only 97 pitches per start, and going 6 and 1/3 inning a start. Another pitcher to add to the surprising list is Scott Baker, who has flown under almost everyones radar.

On the flip side, Bronson Arroyo and Oliver Perez owners should be very concerned. Along the same lines, Felix Hernandez owners should be getting concerned. Even though he is posting solid K/9 and K/100 numbers, he is getting overused. He is averaging 108.5 pitches per game started. That is ridiculous for this early in the season, and on an arm that has past injury concerns.

How would you rank the following waiver wire outfielders: Milton Bradley, Moises Alou, Jeremy Herminda, Mike Cameron, JD Drew, Garrett Anderson, and Bill Hall?

Here are my thoughts on each player, and how I rank them:

1. Jeremy Hermida, FLA - Hermida is by far the best overall fantasy player in the group listed, and he also has the most upside. However, I am a bit concerned that he has not attempted to steal a base since returning from his hamstring injury. The majority of his value revolves around his ability to post a 20/20 season. With that being said, his upside makes him the best choice for the rest of the year.
2. Mike Cameron, MIL - Along the same lines as Hermida, Cameron can produce double-digit steals and homeruns. However, unlike Hermida, he has no upside at this point in his career. Producing a 15/15 season the rest of the way is reasonable, but at the cost of a batting average below .250? I would rather have Hermida’s upside, but Cameron would be a nice stopgap if needed.
3. JD Drew, BOS - I thought that Drew would have a solid season this year, but his inconsistency is killing those thoughts. His batting average of .273 is about as good as it is going to get. A .333 BABIP, as compared to a career .322 BABIP, indicates that his average may even come down a bit more. His greatest assets are the Boston lineup and hitter friendly Fenway Park.
4. Garrett Anderson, LAA - This is a case of what you see is what you get. The only thing that Anderson can definitely improve is his batting average. A .253 BABIP has suppressed his batting average, and a 5.6% HR/FB rate has suppressed his HR totals. So he should hit a better rate, but how long until he gets injured again. I think Anderson is a nice add when he is hot, but that is about it at this point in his career.
5. Milton Bradley, TEX - Although Bradley is the hottest of the ones listed, I personally do not think he can keep up the pace. His batting average is inflated by a BABIP of .383. If you normalize his BABIP to his career .317 level, his batting average drops all the way down to .266. Any other player that has only 2 homeruns and a .266 batting average would be left on the wire for some other fool to pick him up.
6. Bill Hall, MIL - Multiple position eligibility is Hall’s best feature in deep leagues. However, that is about it. His 27.7% strikeout rate is alarming, and a 25% HR/FB is unsustainable. If you normalize the HR/FB rate to the league average of 11%, his batting average drops to an astounding .192. Even if you level out his low BABIP (.230) to .300, his batting average is still only .240, which is a little better than his current .223.
7. Moises Alou NYM - Talk about injuries… Alou was set to possibly come back this week, but I guess that is not happening. If he comes back, I would rank him ahead of JD Drew, but until then, I am leaving him at the bottom. Besides, Ryan Church and Endy Chavez are not doing that bad of a job playing everyday.

Those are my thoughts on this group of players. Do you have any other players that you would like for me, or any of the other writers, to analyze? Just send us an e-mail with the list of players.

In the case of Ortiz, April has traditionally been a rough month for him throughout his career, as he has batted 20 points lower than his career average during that month. However, he heats up as the summer progresses, and that spells danger for opposing pitchers. He has driven in at least 100 runs every year since arriving in Boston, and has scored at least 115 runs the past three years. He benefits from tremendous protection in the heart of the Red Sox lineup, and even J.D. Drew is hitting these days. Even while missing a bunch of games last year, he still hit 35 homeruns and batted a sensational .332. There is a reason why he is one of the most feared hitters in the league.

It’s easy to see someone like a Casey Kotchman tearing it up in the early weeks, or getting excited over a trendy youngster like Joey Votto, but they are not at the level the premier first basemen are yet. When it comes to trade discussions or waiver wire acquisitions, you need to be careful with how you value the outgoing and incoming players. You don’t want to regret letting go of an underperforming all-star caliber player thinking that you can marginally improve another position on your roster. Treat your 40-homer threats like the commodities they are, because they’re hard to find and don’t come often. Of course, if you’re blown away by an offer you can’t refuse, like getting a Brandon Webb to save your ace-less pitching staff, then you’re filling a serious need on your team and improving your chances of being on top in September. Aside from that, healthy 40/100/100 players who get the job done each year have too much to offer to be dangled as trade bait. Remember, players like Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millar are a dime a dozen, so trading away a struggling top-10 first basemen thinking you can fill the slot with one of them may hurt you in the end. Don’t resort to desperate measures; stick with early disappointments like Ortiz through the bad times, so you can reap the benefits of their successes later when they get back on track. You won’t want to miss that.

• Anytime is the right time to start trading players when you have a need. However, this is the time to be careful as you are trying to negotiate a trade. Do not confuse a “need” with a struggling player. If you have Verlander or Sabathia, you do not have a “need” with pitching. On the flip side, if you do not have an ace on the staff now is the time to go looking for one that has been under performing.

Tim: What are your thoughts on a team having two offensive players from the same division platooning at the same position?

• I am more than fine with the idea of platooning players in deep leagues. A good example would be platooning Matt Diaz against lefties, and Geoff Jenkins against righties in the outfield. Whether or not they are in the same division really doesn’t matter if you are doing a true platoon. However, don’t waste a platoon on the catcher position.  In a 1 catcher league, there is no reason to waste a bench spot on an additional catcher. There is greater value on the waiver wire than what that extra catcher will provide. In H2H leagues, that extra spot being used on a pitcher is even more valuable.

Max: Is there a good way to know when to insert a bench player that has speed?

• Wow… tough question. I guess the best way would be to know who has been getting the at bats, and what team they are facing. For example, Josh Bard of SD allowed the most stolen bases last year (121). Jason Kendall of MIL was next with 111. So I would make sure that your bench player is in the lineup against these guys. Oh, and you will want to avoid playing speed players against Joe Mauer, because he has thrown out 50% of the runners who tried to steal this year.

Mark: You were a big help in my draft. I am currently in 1^st, Thanks.

My catching position is weak. I don’t want to cut “Johigima” (I spelled it wrong but you know who I mean) but I think I need to sit him until he gets going. The best free agents are as follows:

Pudge
K.Suzuki
R. Doumit
Or the Toronto catcher, I can’t think of his name right now

Who would you recommend I take? Or maybe not take. The offensive category that I am weak in is runs.

• I know what you are talking about with “Johigma” I have actually dropped him in the Fantasy Gameday League. Only one of the catchers that you have listed will most likely help with runs, and that is Kurt Suzuki. He has batted in the lead off spot in 4 out of the last 5 games. The downside is that his .300 batting average will most likely not stay above .300, which could mean being removed from the lead off spot. Pudge is in the best lineup, but is the oldest of the bunch. Doumit I think would be your best fit, because of the multiple position eligibility. However, take a close look at Dioner Navarro. He had a monstrous 2nd half last year, and has just returned from an injury. So any of the catchers are good fill-ins if you bench Johjima. However I would go with Navarro or Pudge for a more long term solution if you drop him.

That finishes off our segment for today.  Remember, good luck isn’t always necessary with thoughtful strategic planning.  Please remember to e-mail your questions to the winabango link on the right side of the page.

So Happy Birthday Brady!