No, this is not about a New Year’s resolution to lose weight over the next 31 days, although, it would be wise for me to lose a few pounds. I decided to step up the content of Fantasy Gameday and took the challenge of building a better blog in 31 days, which is presented by Pro Blogger.

Why am I mentioning this?

Well, Fantasy GameDay’s 5^th anniversary is right around the corner, and I wanted to let everyone know that I am still taking the site very seriously.

I also wanted to start writing about some of the adventures that I have had running Fantasy GameDay in hopes that it might help inspire others to do the same.  There are a lot of great writers out there who are passionate about Fantasy Sports.

No, I am not looking for some new competition.

Here is the deal, I had to learn the hard way, and I wish someone would have walked me through how to run a Fantasy Sports opinion site/blog. That is my true motivation for sharing this information with everyone.

The first day activity had me develop an “elevator speech” for Fantasy GameDay. Now, I knew what an elevator speech was before I started, but I never knew how to truly write one. Nor did I understand how many ways you can use the information.

By sitting down, and truly thinking about you, the customer, I was able to answer the key question… What keeps you up at night?  That answer spawned a new tagline, new images on the frontpage, new About Us page, and an entirely new perspective for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season.

To provide the answer, here is my new elevator speech.

Fantasy GameDay is dedicated to solving complicated roster decisions that ALL fantasy sports owners face.  Few people have the time to keep up with thousands of players and have an informed opinion about each one. Fantasy GameDay attempts to reach the dedicated sports fan that is passionate about their team, their sport, and their fantasy roster.

But, what keeps you up at night?

Simple, roster decisions. Fantasy owners are expected to wisely manage and improve their rosters through trades and waiver wire acquisitions. Whether during draft preparations or throughout the season, player evaluations play a key role in the decision making process. There are no tutorials and there are no do overs. Fantasy GameDay was created to offer our experience and insight towards solutions for your roster, and hopefully, a better night’s sleep.

So how close did I get?

We all have them in our families.  Heck, it might even be us. Fantasy Baseball players are every where.  As the Christmas season comes to an end, there are always last minute gifts we want to purchase with limited funds. So what do you get the diehard Fantasy Baseball player in your family? Simple, purchase about a book full of relavant resource information that he can use all season long. They will thank you for it, and appreciate the simple fact that you "get" them. Below are the top 5 books (and a bonus book) that I have on my Christmas list every year.  Enjoy.

Ron Shandler's 2012 Baseball Forecaster - if you are looking for simple cheatsheets to guide you through the fantasy baseball drafting process, I suggest you look somewhere else. If you know who Ron Shandler is, then you are aware of his desire to unlock the true player's skill level.  How does he do this?  By researching all the underlying sabermetric stats and not concentrating on the traditional stats like ERA and batting average. Grant it, Shandler has developed his own vocabulary for the stats we all use (command ratios), but his thought process are in-depth and very thoughtful. There is always plenty of statistical evidence to back up the players he targets.

This book is a statistical schmorgasborg for Fantasy Baseball fanatics. You can purchase Ron Shandler's 2012 Baseball Forecaster at amazon for only $16.78 and is due to be released on December 17th.

Art McGee's How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball - Look, I won't kid you, this book is not for the faint at heart. Art McGee dives into the statistical quagmire that is creating auction dollar values, including applying concepts from economics, finance, and statistics.  While the concepts might be complicated, McGee does a great job of boiling it down to concepts that a diehard Fantasy Baseball owner can understand.

One final warning or, depending on your perspective, selling point... This book has no overall value unless you are willing to develop your own spreadsheets and apply the concepts presented. Of course, if you are buying this book, I think you are already planning on doing that.

Get the latest version of How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball from Amazon for only $8.26.  Serious information and a very low cost.

 The 2012 Bill James Handbook - I will be honest, even though Bill James is well known for questioning the foundational premise of certain baseball strategies, his projections can be skewed towards certain players. Anyone remember the 40 home runs that he projected for Chris Davis a few years ago?  There always seems to be a few second year players that he projects aggressively.  Despite my slight objection, I do not want to steer you away from this book. Bill James runs Baseabll Info Solutions and has posted all the stats from the 2011 season in the book.

While I prefer the statistical analysis on Ron Shandler, there is something about the way Bill James writes that is very enjoyable. The best part about this book is that the 2012 Bill James Handbook is already available for shipment from amazon for only $16.47 and will be at your door before Christmas.

Baseball America 2012 Prospect Handbook - While Ron Shandler has a solid offering called 2012 Minor League Baseball Forecaster , there is nothing better than Baseball America's Prospect Handbook. Each and every year the guys at Baseball America spend countless hours evaluating and ranking all the prospects for every major league team. I am amazed at the detail and accuracy that is applied to every prospect and how many of their top ranked prospects make it to the major leagues and impact Fantasy Baseball owners each season.

The key to leveraging prospects throughout the Fantasy Baseball season is to have a clear understanding of the skill set that a particular player brings to the table. This prospect handbook goes into great detail and presents well thought out scouting reports that will allow even the casual fantasy baseball owner to succeed with prospects.

While you have to wait until February for its release, Baseball America 2012 Prospect Handbook is available for preorder at Amazon for only $21.31.  Um, this is THE best prospect book out there, so fork over the coin.  Your Fantasy Baseball fanatic will love you.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012 - The Hardball Times website is best known for their in depth statistical analysis of everything baseball, and this book is no different. Each year, the guys at THT evaluate everything that happens during the previous season, even some historical events, and provide statistical research and trending information in an effort to rationalize of all that happenings in a given season.

This book is already in stock at Amazon, and can be the perfect gift for a baseball fan singing the cold winter blues. Pick it up The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012 for only $15.60 today.

Bonus Book

How Fantasy Sports Explains the World – Did you seriously think that I would talk about fantasy baseball books and not mention about AJ Mass’ offering?  Our very own Jordan Simon not only reviewed an advanced copy of the book, but also was granted an interview with AJ Mass himself.  Therefore, we might be a little biased on which book you should by.

You can get How Fantasy Sports Explains the World from Amazon for only $16.47.

Are there any other books your would recommend?  Leave your suggestions in the comments section.

In his new book, How Fantasy Sports Explains the World , ESPN analyst AJ Mass draws from job experiences as varied as an Atlantic City casino dealer and member of an off-Broadway improvisational troupe, and influences as diverse as Star Wars’ Galactic Empire, Ghost Hunters, the Royal Shakespeare Company, and pareidolia (look it up!). In addition to insights into real and fantasy scenarios -- from replacing an irreplaceable, injured player to “drafting” for the perfect relationship -- you’ll enjoy such detours as the “dumbest sport ever invented” (Quidditch) and suggestions for Dan Brown’s next symbology thriller plot.

The erudite, wittily opinionated Mr. Mass chatted with Fantasy Gameday about reality TV, loyalty to hometown teams, trade ethics and strategy, the unreliability of BABIP, IDP leagues, and more.  We also posted a review of his book as well.

JS: When, how and why did you start playing fantasy sports?

AJM: It was something I had seen though maybe not in the original rotisserie format. I got into computers in college. Found Davey Johnson’s baseball game on Prodigy. My first exposure was via Strat-O-Matic, AllStar baseball, recreational of historical stuff as a kid. I thought it would be great way to stay in touch with college friends... One of my friends put on a bow tie and seersucker suit and said I’m Frank Cashen. Another poor guy got stuck with Marquis Grissom at $54.

JS: When people find out what you do, what’s the greatest misconception they have about fantasy sports and the people who play them?

AJM: That we have no lives! Same stigma as Dungeons and Dragons, a bunch of nerds sitting in the basement. It’s not that anymore -- if it ever was. It can be social, a way to keep in touch with friends. There’s interaction. In the old days mailing stats to your leaguemates, or faxing, that was labor- and time-intensive. You had to be that sort of geeky person. But it’s not that kind of obsession these days.

JS: Unless you have 30 teams.

AJM: 30? Uh, yeahhh, wellll… It’s become enough of a legitimate culture, because fantasy sports provides active participation and a sense of control. Like voting for contestants on Dancing with the Stars. You can be involved without it dominating your life.

JS: You have quite the resume, including a stint as the Mets mascot. What was your most memorable experience, good or bad, as Mr. Met?

AJM: Sending your mascot to the Upper Deck on Bat Day when his head is a giant baseball -- and you’ve armed 8-year old children with things to hit a baseball -- is not a wise decision.

JS: You mentioned that your Mr. Met days could form a sequel of sorts. Is there a chapter you deleted for space during the editorial process, or some material that you liked but didn't make the final cut?

AJM: No, I have always wanted to write a Mr. Met book, encompassing my whole time in the suit, and simply didn't want to include it in this project. Hopefully, if this does well enough, that memoir can be next on the docket.

JS: Your degree is in broadcast journalism. What would you be doing if you weren’t a fantasy analyst? Sportswriter? Any interest in following statheads like Bill James and Voros McCracken into a team’s front office?

AJM: At least for now this is where I’m supposed to be, where I want to be. It’s great to be able to write for a living. That’s what I always wanted to do... When I was a kid I wanted to be a baseball player. Then it thought, maybe I’ll announce the games, be the broadcaster. Now years later I’m hanging with Howie Rose, eating at the press level. I made the major leagues but just took a very different route.

JS: What’s the biggest change to fantasy sports other than advent of internet?

AJM: Proliferation of satellite TV, access to the games that you didn’t always get a chance to see. As much as we can look at statistics, pore over the box scores, that element hasn’t changed. There’s no substitute for seeing with your own eyes… We’re able to watch a lot more games… Like Jordan Walden, I think it was, imploding a few days ago. We can appreciate that a performance that looks awful in the box score really wasn’t: a seeing eye single, an error, but no doubt the pitcher had his game on.

JS: What do you think of The League?

AJM: Very funny show, accurate. It depicts many aspects of what I talk about in the book…   It’s entertaining and captures a lot of the personalities…. (Yes, get her in the league, fresh meat). Matt Berry has a cameo in the upcoming season.

JS: Is it a flawed analogy to compare real-world clubs to fantasy keeper leagues? For example, do I say to myself, Atlanta held onto its elite prospects and even got an additional year of Michael Bourn, so why I should I sacrifice a premium prospect for a two-month rental – or do I think like Cleveland, San Francisco, to a lesser degree Philadelphia? (Full disclosure: I’ve been offered pitchers like Jered Weaver in the FGD Keeper League for Desmond Jennings).

AJM: Granted, even in auction leagues with assigned values, salary dumps aren't quite the same considerations. The stakes are different: You’re not running a multi-million dollar operation, you’re free to make the wrong call. But in general, people put too much emphasis on the future. Hey, you wanna win this year, right? The point of keepers is to ensure that teams in last place don’t just quit… Everything is a risk/reward analysis. Either way you could kick yourself. It’s like tossing a coin, I can root for ‘heads’ all the time but it won’t affect the outcome.

JS: You root for the New York Mets and Syracuse Orange. Do you feel that playing fantasy baseball detracts from the experience of watching your favorite team? How does it affect your allegiances? Would you root against your favorite team if players from the opposition were on your fantasy team? Or can you have divided loyalties, like a great morally complex drama?

AJM: It doesn’t really decrease enjoyment because I do this professionally. You need to take your fandom out of it, can’t take personal biases into account.

JS: Like the Allen Iverson anecdote you recount in your book.

AJM: Oh yeah. And as Mr. Met, I got to meet some of the players. Some were nice like Carl Everett, some weren’t. But I couldn’t let that affect my fantasy evaluation. For example, I don’t like the Cowboys but Tony Romo is still a top-ten QB. I think in order to play the game well you have to put aside those biases as best you can…. I think it’s a benefit to fandom, even enhances the experience, otherwise why would I be watching the Mets play Seattle or Texas?

JS: And you can exploit someone else’s fandom in trades.

AJM: You pick Matt Holliday right before a Cards fan does and you can use that no end! …The experience like the game has evolved as time has gone on. The reason it caught on in the first place was free agency. Before that, if you followed a team, you watched these players, the core unit. Today the Colts keeping their core unit together is unusual... You can keep that loyalty even when teams themselves aren’t. Or the players themselves… You’re just trying to do the same thing they’re doing.

JS: Just out of curiosity, is there any way for a franchise like the Yankees to win that kind of damned-if-they-sign-him/damned-if-they-don’t Jeter contractual scenario?

AJM: Sure, if Jeter hits .350 next year! Loyalty to the player is commendable. The Orioles weren’t going to trade Cal Ripken at the end either. If the Yankees had wanted to get rid of him, they could have spun the PR machine. As a baseball fan I’m happy that he gets to finish his career with the team, even forgetting the milestones, so it isn’t like Brett Favre or Roger Clemens and their many retirements.

JS: You do address this indirectly throughout the book, but if you had one major pet peeve about the fantasy-verse, what would it be? How would you change it?

AJM: I wouldn't really change anything since we can all choose to play in leagues with people who want to play “our way” -- there is a freedom that exists in that regard. The changes I would make, as I point out in the book, are more about the openness of other people to embrace alternative points of view.

JS: Roto doesn’t seem as popular as it once was. The head-to-head format is more accessible with the instant win-loss reward. What do you say to those who claim H2H involves more sheer luck?

AJM: It all has some aspect of luck because you don’t control what the players do on the field. All you can do is start the players you think will do best. Getting the sample size down to such a small level. You’re not talking about drafting a team from scratch at the beginning of fantasy season... Some of the best players may be playing 5 games not 7, my starters going twice not once, resting guys for the [real] playoffs---you’re not testing skill to the same degree… Football is different because the matchups are different and have such an immediate impact…. Peyton versus the Steelers rather than Eli versus the Texans is still more of a guess, but you have some data to process… Everyone’s on the same playing field... Rotisserie and head-to-head are two completely different animals, apples and oranges… What makes more sense---who did it best the entire season or in the playoffs? But if you enjoy the format, that’s what counts.

JS: I don't read as much sabermetric-style analysis on fantasy football. Or golf, hockey, basketball. Do these sports lend themselves to greater number-crunching?

AJM: We’ve come a long way in predictive performance. Targets rather than just receptions, yards per carry, yards after the first hit. Problem is, say you like IDP leagues. I don’t play them because take a guy like Nnamdi Asomugha. No question he’s valuable, but how do you really measure that? His effectiveness is measured by not throwing in his direction, so he doesn’t have as many chances to break up passes. It’s counter-intuitive to say he’s great because he has zero. That’s the difficulty of translating real-life into fantasy… I was a Math minor. As much as I love math, the formula’s gotta be fun not work. You wanna throw WHIP or OPS my way, I’m with you. I get the sabermetric stuff. But sometimes the number doesn’t mean anything… I have to know the whole story. Whether in fantasy sports or life, people see what they want to see, they use confirmation bias to look for things that support their world view… Part of my job is to write Daily Notes, but how can you possibly put [pitcher] so-and-so as the 10^th-best option, when he’s 2-10 against that team? I’m cherry-picking data, because I have to write something.

JS: I think Ron Shandler (founder of Baseball HQ) speculated that playing by the numbers still only provides a 70% success rate at best. What could increase that, or rather decrease the element of sheer luck?

AJM: To predict future order out of the randomness that is the human condition? As Dr. Tyson [director of New York’s Hayden Planetarium] said, there are no uncertainties in the universe… Even Albert Pujols can have a bad year---comparatively. There are millions of different factors. You educate yourself as best you can for where you are now…  All we’re trying to do is gain an illusion of control in a world without control.

JS: With so many fantasy owners hopping on the sabr-rattling bandwagon, is there a formula (beyond the obvious like BABIP, FIP, xFIP, K:BB) you think is still useful yet under-utilized in terms of gauging expected performance?

AJM: There are things out there that can give you a better window. But there are no absolutes. A guy who consistently bats .300 isn’t going to regress to the mean. You can’t use BABIP for knuckleballers like R.A. Dickey. After Jason Kipnis homered in four straight games, I noticed most of his ABs resulted either in a homer or strikeout. I wasn’t jumping on his bandwagon yet. A reader lit into me for not recommending him and to prove my small sample size wrong, he used an even smaller sample size. Even the stats that do work don’t work in every case. No stat proves consistency.

JS: What un-represented sport do you think could do well in the fantasy firmament and why?

AJM: The thing you need for fantasy purposes is statistics, which is why hockey will never catch on. Plus-minus just isn’t cutting it for me, it’s a defensive not offensive game… Basketball could get bigger. And as a function of the college sport, which is where huge growth could take place. It’s got to be the perfect marriage of intuitive and get-the-score. Golf fantasy I don’t get because I can’t watch a golf event and think, ahhhh, that helps his putts per GiR.

JS: Let’s play a game of association: the phrase ‘integrity of the league.’

AJM: How about integrity of the league where you’re all trying to screw each other with deals?

JS: Okay. Is there any situation other than blatant dumping or collusion, which is difficult to prove, when you’d countenance vetoing a trade?

AJM:  The only other aspect is when a newbie makes a trade. I do get the argument, “Oh we have to protect him.” But if you veto he’s not going to bother to learn, assuming everyone will veto.

JS: Sounds like you’d like to ban the veto entirely. After all, you use the great analogy of Seward’s Folly (and the Guano Islands Act) to demonstrate how a deal can defy popular opinion.

AJM: You can’t predict future performance, or variables like injury... And you think there’s no peer pressure? Blind allegiance to group mentality?

JS: Pushing cigarettes in the boys’ toilet.

AJM: Exactly. If you’re going to agree there’s trading you cannot, from that point forward, object. But as [Survivor’s] Yau-Man Chan points out in the book, it’s uncooperative game theory. There are no rules establishing fair and unfair. Ideally you have an impartial commissioner step in to evaluate trades. But where does it stop? If you’re policing, why not say, “You shouldn’t start him. I’m gonna set your lineup for you.” Everyone’s gonna have different opinions on the value of players, that’s the point. If you have problems, you shouldn’t be playing in a league with strangers.

JS: As a corollary to your discussion of fantasy sports and relationships, is there a unique parallel to sports widowhood in fantasy? If so, any suggestions to keep the peace?

AJM: I think any relationship needs for both parties to respect the interests of the other… as I mentioned in Chapter 2, adding wives and girlfriends into the fantasy sports mix doesn't diminish the enjoyment -- it actually can allow you more freedom to watch games without ending up in the doghouse. Just be prepared to immerse yourself in some activities that you initially might not be gung ho about in return.

JS: Discussing the trading process you extrapolate from the unwritten rules of Improv: always make your partner look good. You counsel readers never to respond, “No!” (especially in a withering tone), even when they offer Thabo Selofosha for LeBron. Do you believe in total honesty during negotiations? eg, let's say you're willing to “lose” a trade to help take points from your nearest opponents. Should you mention that up front?

AJM: Every negotiation is different. But though I'd never try and sneak a deal through where I just heard that a player was injured and my trade partner might not have gotten that news yet, if I can get a deal done without revealing all my cards in terms of strategy, then I will. What works best, I've found, is to tell the other guy why the trade makes sense for him -- and to really try and come with trade offers in the first place that you can pitch sincerely that way -- rather than having to explain why you want to do it… But if the deal is falling apart and I really want it? Then I have a decision to make, don't I?

JS: Speaking of decisions and public opinion… Anyone you feel was jobbed on Survivor, American Idol, Dancing with the Stars?

AJM: American Idol and DwTS are not talent competitions, they are popularity contests. Therefore, whoever ends up winning "deserves" it. On shows like Survivor and Big Brother, as Yau-Man Chan explains in the book, the contestants themselves determine the merits of each season's winner, so again, no major complaints. However shows like Project Runway and Top Chef, where a panel of judges will often arbitrarily change the rules of what merits advancement versus elimination -- that's where people like Mondo (Runway) or Annie Duke (and most Apprentice contestants) can seemingly get “jobbed” because they're losing on somebody's ever-changing whim.

JS: If recasting the original Star Wars trilogy, whom would you select as the three leads?

AJM: You'd have to give Seth Green the part of Luke, and I'd want Nathan Fillion to be Han. And since, I've kept it in the Whedonverse so far, let's put in Eliza Dushku as Leia, and let the cameras roll. Get Joss on the phone!

(JS -- aside to readers): One of the incidental pleasures of the book is reading AJ’s takes on popular sci-fi franchises, many of which are spiced by anecdotes involving actors such as Green and interviews with writers/showrunners like Jane Espenson. I heartily second Filion, Green is inspired though perhaps a bit long in the tooth, and Dushku…. How many red-blooded American males would love to see her sporting that Come-On-I-Wanna-Leia bikini around Jabba’s hut?

Check out How Fantasy Sports Explains the World at Amazon.com for as little as $13.49

Read our interview with AJ Mass here.

What do Harry Potter, the U.S. Electoral College, psychic John Edwards, Stephen Hawking, and James T. Kirk have to do with fantasy sports? How are Oakland GM Billy Beane and Big Bang Theory’s Sheldon Cooper alike? And can Jesus and Darth Vader help you win your league?

Whatever your answer, AJ Mass, a professional sports analyst for ESPN, provides winning (in both senses) advice in his new book How Fantasy Sports Explains the World . The playful subtitle tells it all: “What Pujols and Peyton can teach us about Wookiees and Wall Street.” His thesis is that we can obtain an edge in all our dealings from “these hidden nuggets of wisdom [that] are all around us—in classic works of literature, in our legal and political systems, in the very molecules that make up the air we breathe.” Mass argues that the lessons we can derive from evaluating these situations apply equally to fantasy sports and real life, citing Martin Cooper, inventor of the cell phone, being inspired by the Star Trek communicator.

HFSEtW showcases his encyclopedic knowledge but this is no mere Mr. Know-It-All’s How-To self-help guide. An erudite Renaissance thinker, Mass draws inspiration from such disparate influences as Shakespeare and Schrödinger’s Cat, as well as from his own far-ranging resume from Atlantic City dealer (no, not that kind) to über-mascot Mr. Met to member of an off-Broadway improvisational troupe. He’d likely give Jeopardy’s Ken Jennings a run for his money, using subversively sophisticated intellectual bait-and-switch examples to illustrate his points. But he also possesses the gift of rendering heady abstruse concepts comprehensible without condescension. The chatty, anecdotal format allows Mass to spin yarns with the deadly accuracy of a Drew Brees spiral or Verlander two-seamer, though he’ll throw you a curve to keep it honest.

Who else would discern the common thread between Manny Ramirez, Kanye West, and Sylar from Heroes (all conform to his witty description of The Narcissist, one of 12 instantly recognizable archetypes necessary in the ideal fantasy league and indeed, every circle of friends)? Or manages to utilize Mithra and Mothra (that’s the Zoroastrian deity and the winged insect/Godzilla nemesis) in one sentence?

Mass’s wonderfully demented free-association had me thinking outside the box right from the start as he explains gambling, probability and the odds vis a vis fantasy sports, the first of many illustrations of why supposed sure-thing strategies take us only so far. When he defends the concept “never bench your studs” via comparison to a would-be Miss Cleo “divining” in hindsight that hitting on 16 would make 21, I was hooked. He then relates the time he dealt Three Card Poker to Allen Iverson on Christmas Eve, with amusing digressions to the fictional Star Trek game Fizzbinn and the infamous 2009 Maurice Jones-Drew incident (dropping to one knee to run out the clock rather than score the uncontested touchdown and killing many a fantasy season including MJD’s own). The point being that “ultimately you have no control over the outcome.”

By the third chapter, Mass offers a brilliant example of cherry-picking stats (Tony Romo’s 2009 season, good and bad) that will aid in any trade negotiations, then compares the voir dire (jury selection) to the statistical concept of small sample sizes. He not only draws from his own jury duty experience but interviews a legal consultant, which puts veto power in perspective with the real-life repercussions of trial by jury and establishing burden of proof.

Each chapter’s journey yields humorous analogies and insights into human behavior. How Dwayne’s fantasy football pool methodology in What’s Happening? relates to the search for Planet X (Pluto). Why Steve Ward (professional matchmaker on VH1’s Tough Love dating boot camp and huge Philly sports fan) compares speed dating with drafting. That Nero’s name in Hebrew and Aramaic is 666—the same figure if you add up all the numbers on a roulette wheel (perhaps explaining “why so many gamblers have a devil of a time coming out ahead”).

My favorite discourses? Using an analysis of Lincoln’s secretary of state William Seward (he of the famed Alaska purchase dubbed Seward’s Folly) to conclude: “The moral of the story is that you can’t judge a deal at the time it is made.” It’s all a matter of perspective and, usually, hindsight. This leads to an interview with Yau-Man Chan, the popular Survivor contestant and information systems manager for UC-Berkeley, discussing “fair” versus “unfair” trades and why it’s so difficult to consummate them. Mass revisits trading a few chapters later, using the convoluted presidential electoral process devised by our Founding Fathers to launch an examination of the other Bush-Gore (debating the merits of Reggie Bush versus Frank Gore for the 2006 season) and inquiry into which was better, the team that scored the most overall points or the one that beat the other head to head. This segues into how Bill Belichick exploited loopholes to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and the issue of collusion, veto ethics, and manipulating deals to your advantage.

The truly stunning analogy is explaining Schrödinger’s Cat paradox through Armando Gallaraga’s near-perfect game June 2, 2010 (in the moment before the scorer’s decision, both outcomes were equally possible). The concept leads to musings from astrophysicist Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson, director of the Hayden Planetarium and Yankees fan, on the possibility of predicting outcomes. No surprise he doesn’t believe in luck and opines, “Statistics, the backbone of fantasy sports, also governs our universe… the more statistics you have, the more reliable is the prediction you make from it. In other words, the more likely your predictions will follow the integrity of the statistics you’ve collected."

Throughout the book, Mass respects statistics yet also evinces a healthy skepticism about taking sabermetrics too far. At one point he convincingly argues against regression to the mean. “I’m not saying these stats can’t be useful, but you can’t use them in such a simplified way and declare them to be absolutes. Just as you can’t expect that after ten consecutive coin tosses coming up heads, the next ten are likely to have more tails than heads as things start to ‘even out over the long run,’ you also can’t assume that just because a pitcher has ‘an ERA lower than his FIP’ and ‘a FIP lower than the league average’ that we should automatically expect a regression the following season."

The book's bravura conclusion interrelates the Columbine shootings, cult series like Buffy the Vampire Slayer (quoting TV writer/show runner Jane Espenson), the “appeal of competitive reality shows where viewers can have a say in how the show ultimately ends” (providing at least the illusion of greater control), and Dan Haren defying expectations in his move to the American League and posting better second-half numbers in 2010. All tied into the chilling trial(s) and tribulations of the real-life West Memphis Three (the teenagers standing trial for homicide despite lack of method, motive and physical evidence).

The latter reveals the gutsiest conclusion of all: “perhaps the greatest thing fantasy sports can teach us is how to feel.”  Mass has a sneaky knack of putting things in perspective.

Though at times the constant stream of trivia resembles a series of bloop singles dinging a pitcher to death, Mass mostly hits them out of the park. Occasionally the analogies and lessons are variations on the same theme (albeit from a different, equally enlightening and entertaining perspective). And given the maze of associations, an index would be nice (though on second thought that might double the book’s length). Still, the finest anecdotes leave us musing about the life outside the margins of the pages; at such moments Mass proves to be not merely an analyst and entertainer but also a perceptive essayist on the human condition.

And that’s ultimately even more magical than any example of prestidigitation in the book's dazzling bag of tricks.

Check out How Fantasy Sports Explains the World at Amazon.com for as little as $13.49

“You always get a special kick on Opening Day, no matter how many you go through. You look forward to it like a birthday party when you're a kid. You think something wonderful is going to happen.” - Joe DiMaggio

Opening Day is here, my friends. Everything counts from here on out. Our little hobby is simple.  It is our job as the fantasy GM of our fantasy team to win a fantasy championship.  Our fantasy fans will not be satisfied with anything less. To do this, we must continue to make our team better each and every day.  Hopefully, we have put our team in the best position to succeed with our draft. <plug> Which you  did if you read my Target Percentages series</plug>

But there is so much more than the draft, hoss.  So. Much. More.

We must work the waiver wire to fix the mistakes we made in the draft… and we will discover some mistakes.  Just don’t discover them too late. My personal rule of thumb is to cut an underachiever loose after X number of weeks.  Where X equals 24 minus the round that the player was drafted.  For example, if you drafted your corner infielder in the 18^th round.  Come week six (24-18) and he hasn’t turned it around, I drop him off a high cliff into the free agent pool. This is just a very rough guideline.  Some players we might know immediately that they are toast and need to be dropped immediately and any player drafted after the 24^th round can be cut at any time.

When we cut a player, we must become the Jacques Cousteau of our free agent pool to find productive players to fill in for an injured or underperforming player and fill in on those travel days (Monday & Thursday).  Just relying on our drafted players is not enough. When looking for a player to pick up off the wire, I find it very useful to set the filter to only show you the stats from the last 15-days for hitters and last 30-days for pitchers.  This shows me who is “hot” and who is “cold.”

Last year in my 2010 opening day article, I wrote the following and even though the numbers may have changed, the point still rings true.

• 561 homeruns.
• 2,558 RBI.
• 2,793 runs.
• 401 stolen bases.
• 5660 hits in 20,558 at-bats for a .2705 batting average.
• 359 wins.
• 224 saves.
• 4,663 strikeouts.
• 6026 innings of 4.277 ERA and 1.366 WHIP.

Those are the stats from last year’s 12-team 5x5 vanilla league that were found on the wire.  The ratio stats probably aren’t going to help you… but the counting stats?  Think about this: the difference between first and last place in homeruns was 108.  There were 561 homeruns to be had out on the wire.  Do the math.

Outside of the wire, the only way we can improve our team is with trades.  My best trade advice is to always look at the offer from both sides.  Ask yourself if the other owner would make the trade.  How does it help them?  The best trades are the ones that help both teams. Don’t offer three players that can be found on the wire for one stud player.  Would you trade away one of your studs for three guys that you could find on the wire?  Why would you expect anyone else to, if you wouldn’t?

The point of this article is that we have to constantly be looking to improve our fantasy team. Two years ago I was sitting in last place on June 1^st with 46 measly points (46.5 points out of first).  For the final four months of the season I worked the waiver wire and made a few trades to get my team into second place (8.5 points out of first).

So even if we fall into the deepest of holes… there is hope.

And Opening Day is all about hope.

Play ball, indeed.