| Ya Win Some Ya Lose Some, Pt2 |
| Written by Jordan Simon |
| Sunday, 31 October 2010 17:07 |
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My esteemed colleague, Bill Galvin, has posted on the AL Central division earlier; having already compiled notes on all deadline transactions, I opted not to read his analysis, which I’m sure is incisive as usual. We probably agree on most points, but perhaps this will offer additional perspective. ANNNNNND the winners are… the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals. Really. Dayton Moore didn’t whine over the timing of losing the desirable DeJesus and potentially pilfered his old Braves buddies. Eternal gambler Mark Shapiro turned the least appealing bunch of chips into decent prospects and salary relief. Not that the three major pretenders, sorry contenders stood pat, but ultimately trading out the likes of Rauch for Capps as closer and Jackson for Hudson looks only slightly better from an improvement standpoint than rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic when a savvy move could easily make the difference in a tight race.
I can’t help but hum the Nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-NAH theme from the campy 1960s Batman TV series. Cuz that’s what the ChiSox needed---a big bad bat man---and nyah nyah was the result despite much posturing. GM Kenny Williams is usually one of MLB’s shrewdest, most aggressive traders. KW identified his biggest hole, was linked to more rumors than Lindsay Lohan and Jesse James combined, and ended up just as screwed if not vilified for not consummating deals for Lance Berkman (who exercised his no-trade clause), Manny Ramirez (perhaps a blessing in disguise), Prince Fielder (ditto, if Boras doesn’t back off his demands), and Adam Dunn. The last misfire really stung, considering that the trade that fetched Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks for Dan Hudson was widely interpreted as prelude to a ménage à trois with the Nats. Williams usually manages to subvert the system so perhaps what we’ve got here is a failure to communicate. While Don Cooper, one of baseball’s unsung pitching coaches, may stabilize the erratic if exciting Jackson (witness the brief renaissance of José Contreras), there’s a reason he was dealt three times in the past 19 months. Escaping a hitters’ park and brutal defense can only help so much, though arguably Jackson’s ERA was arguably also bloated because he pitched deeper into games to avoid Arizona’s Snakes in the Bullpen disaster (he lost several quality starts after the 6th inning). Still, his control remains inconsistent and unlike Haren, he’s only under contract for 2011 (at $8.35 million). Frankly, Hudson was their top prospect, nearly as polished, at the team’s financial mercy for years. And the South Siders surrendered superior southpaw, David Holmberg. But here’s the scary part: Whether he ejects E-Jack or not, Williams still needs innings-eaters. Maybe Jackson gives them a better chance than Hudson in the playoffs, but their chances of getting there dwindled without acquiring a big bopper to bolster an offense ranked in the bottom half (yikes, Russ Branyan perhaps?). And despite Edwin’s tantalizing stuff and relative youth, his ceiling remains a strong #3. Flash forward to 2011 and you’ve got a great rotation assuming a healthy effective Peavy. But your farm’s barren.
His peers respect outgoing GM Mark Shapiro as a top-notch talent evaluator. At his best, he’s also an alchemist, turning lead into gold. Without blowing smoke up anyone’s assets, he signaled The Tribe’s shift into rebuilding mode, jettisoning veterans who wouldn’t help them compete down the road. Granted, he’s paying part of the salaries for Jake Westbrook, Jhonny Peralta, Russell Branyan (traded in June), and Kerry Wood. But all were eligible for free agency, meaning he had to get something now. They also clogged the roster (along with Austin Kearns), preventing incoming GM Chris Antonelli from evaluating upper-level minor leaguers. Cleveland may not have received blue-chippers, but even shedding a few million smackers, giving their few refined prospects non-pressure PT, and obtaining at least organizational depth, ranks as a steal considering they lacked marquee names to trade. Now they can see if Chris Perez is the closer of the future; if Tomlin, Carrasco, Gomez, and/or Huff might stick in the rotation; if Brantley, perhaps Jordan Brown, are outfield answers with Kearns gone, not to mention if Jared Goedert can keep the hot corner warm for years to come. They may get chump change as players to be named later from the Yanks (or at least an additional half mil for Wood), but 19-year-old string-bean Giovanni Soto has dominated despite questionable stuff, ¾-slot repeatability and poise (he does mix speeds, throw strikes and induce grounders well and might yet gain velocity by filling out that frame), while 6’6” righty Corey Kluber (a 2007 4th-rounder netted from the Padres in the three-way deal with St. Louis for Westbrook) was leading the Texas League in punchouts, pounding the strike zone while keeping hitters honest with a polished changeup. Both could be dependable fourth/fifth starters.
Perhaps we shouldn’t chastise Dave Dombrowski for failing to make a bigger splash. Detroit suffered so many key injuries (Ordonez, Inge, Guillen) that nothing short of mortgaging the franchise’s entire future would have addressed gaping holes throughout the lineup and pitching staff. Though Dombrowski mysteriously hinted that a huge out-of-left-field deal almost happened, he understandably refused to trade prospects like Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver, even multi-positional handymen like Ryan Raburn (a Dodgers target) during his rumored pursuit of Adam Dunn, John Buck, and Ted Lilly. Instead he netted Jhonny Peralta, who supplies necessary right-handed depth and might be reinvigorated by a change of scenery (cue unfair jokes about picturesque Cleveland and Detroit). The Indians actually threw in about 70% of his 2010 salary and if he does recapture his 2005 mojo, Detroit holds a (relatively) cheap $7 million 2011 option (plus $250,000 buyout). Given that neither the ChiSox nor Twins made major moves, creative acquisitions might have stolen the title. Now the Tigers’ playoff odds have dwindled to the point that they’ve become bona fide sellers. Perhaps Dombrowski should be lauded for avoiding the win-now-at-all-costs approach: Detroit is somewhat better positioned for 2011, but only time will tell whether he’s both CEO and seer about the future.
Everyone loves an underdog, though the Royals have tried even the most Pollyanna-ish fans’ patience. Now they’re finally turning the corner, with one of MLB’s most promising farm systems. Under the circumstances, GM Dayton Moore’s mandate was to shed deadweight, trim payroll, and find complementary pieces to his potential superstars. Considering how much veteran innings-eaters à la Millwood and Garland or even versatile utility men can fetch on the free-agent market, those unsung building blocks are almost as important as the blue-chip stocks. Without DeJesus, Moore had slim pickings to offer buyers. Sure, it would have been nice to see José Guillen moved prior to the waiver deadline, but how much leverage do you have trading a malcontent, injury-prone, declining DH? Right-hander Sean O’Sullivan, acquired from the Angels for the nice but increasingly expensive Alberto Callaspo, profiles as a sturdy strike-thrower who could cheaply fill the rotation’s back-end for years. Getting Lucas May, a potential backup catcher with solid power but questionable discipline, and Elisaul Pimental (a skinny, projectable low-A guy with decent control over a nice heater, cutter, and change-up) for a 34-year-old fourth outfielder was a near-coup. Moore also deserves kudos for plumbing an old pipeline, shipping Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth---two aging, injury-riddled, inconsistent players whose 2011 options they wouldn’t pick up (saving themselves a million smackers in buy-out clauses)---to Atlanta. Jesse Chavez no longer qualifies as a work-in-progress; despite lighting up the speed gun, the flame-throwing but hittable righty starts more fires than he extinguishes. Gregor Blanco is a poor man’s Podzilla but he’ll hold the fort in center until reinforcements arrive. No, the prize here is the undrafted former Jays G.M. J.P. Ricciardi find, little lefty Tim Collins, generously listed at 5’7”, who’s become the scouting community’s favorite little-engine-that-could underdog. The Braves obviously liked him since he was flipped by Toronto in the Gonzalez-Escobar swap. In 3.5 seasons he compiled an eye-popping 294 Ks in 194.2 innings, including 87 in 51 AA innings (punching out 14 of 29 batters faced in the Braves system alone). That career strikeout rate of 13.6/9 looks even better next to an equally dominant 5.8/9 HA ratio. He boasts a humming heater that he can dial up to 93-94 MPH, and genuine knee-buckling 12-6 curve. He frustrates righties almost as much as lefties thanks to his deceptive over-the-top delivery. Despite drawing comparisons to The Freak, his build dictates a future in relief, probably high-leverage albeit with a small shot at closing.
The uproar here is over GM Bill Smith’s supposed undervaluing of Wilson Ramos. There’s some confusion about whether Minnesota refused to package him for Cliff Lee---or the Ms turned the offer down. Either way, the prevailing sentiment is that they should have gotten more for their prized catching prospect than a reliever. Certainly, acquiring a front-line starter to bolster the shaky rotation was paramount. Renting Lee would have justified the expense but someone flinched, Lilly and Oswalt reportedly exercised their no-trade clauses, and the rest of the market looked like rotting leftovers. Maybe the Twinnies worried about Rauch, since superficially he topped Capps in most of the peripherals beloved of saber-toothed analysts. Granted, Ramos was blocked by Mauer (at least for another year or two), and his 2010 at AAA Rochester has underwhelmed. But is any reliever, even Mo Rivera at his peak, worth six years of a top power prospect at a scarce position (three of them at 400 grand per)? Yes, barely. Some of the newer metrics rank Capps ahead of Rauch, not to mention other stalwarts like Guerrier, Mijares, and Crain. Moreover he adds depth to the pen no matter where he’s slotted. That permits Ron Gardenhire to relieve his beleaguered starters earlier in the game, mixing and matching situationally, without burning out his set-up guys, including the usually reliable rubber-armed Rauch. Sooooooo, almost as good as a starter: The trickle-down effect improves the entire staff, especially since Capps when healthy is known for remarkable control (something Twins management prizes). The Nats are paying nearly half his remaining 2010 salary, and since Nathan’s successful return from TJ surgery isn’t a sure thing, having a 2011 arbitration-eligible Capps provides some insurance. Ultimately, yes, even a tarnished Ramos should have netted a higher premium, but this is one of those misunderstood moves that can secure an extra W or two in a tight race where every inning counts---something whose importance Smith understands after playing consecutive 163rd games.
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