GMs (and foaming-at-the-mouth fanatics) at the MLB trading deadline usually resemble a cross between Amy Winehouse and the latest “Girl Gone Wild:” addicted, audacious, attention-starved. Bona-fide stars and promising prospects alike exude powerful pheromones; acquiring one provides a hormonal rush. But as in fantasy baseball, no real life deal is ever truly even (the ideal scenario would be Detroit trading would-be phenom John Smoltz to Atlanta in 1987; a resurgent Doyle Alexander led the Tigers to the playoffs, while the Braves gained a future Hall-of-Famer). In evaluating trades, one must consider short- and long-term ramifications, including not just performance but finances (normally impact players are worth more revenue to playoff-bubble teams, but the recession slightly devalues any acquisition’s additional “Win Shares” since the fan base still might buy fewer tickets). Technically any playoff contender that adds the final pieces to the puzzle without giving up too much is a winner, as is an also-ran “seller” that dumps salary and stockpiles high-upside prospects. The predominatntly buyers’ bull market engendered more speculation than high schoolers discussing prom dates on Gossip Girl or 90210. So which teams, like, OMG rilly ended up tope (win), chillaxin’ (hold), or busted (dogsville)? Back to English: In this series, I’ll examine the business decisions (by division), then fantasy fallout ramifications, and finally analyze potential waiver deadline deals.
AL EAST: It’s tempting to invoke that tired “The rich get richer” cliché, while excoriating the Evil Empire’s ill-gotten gains. But should we blame sharks or lions for doing what comes naturally? Despite our dog-eat-dog, predator versus prey world, the Rays still exemplify a team built for success through savvy scouting—much like the mid-90s Yanks. Consider that the Yankees’ Opening Day team salary nearly trebled Tampa’s ($206 to $72 million), yet New York still felt threatened by the Rays (and upstart Rangers). Still, every team missed opportunities and even the Bombers settled, mostly, for second choices.
- BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Grade: D+)
Economics 101: playoff contenders derive more value from wins, so sellers should extract maximum return from players’ contracts that won’t benefit them in the future. Rather than downloading Ty Wigginton and Luke Scott (expendable, desirable, and unlikely to pass waivers), the Orioles’ most significant acquisition was Buck Showalter. He’s instilled a spark already, but the team is plummeting toward one of the worst finishes in its history as every offseason move backfired. Hurlers Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Millwood, despite hurl-worthy performances, would have offered back-end rotation/playoff bullpen value in a pitching-starved market. The former, signed for just $3 million, recently stepped it up and might fetch something in August. The latter’s veteran presence had to be worth something, though perhaps no team would assume even half Millwood’s contract or risk offering arbitration in hopes of landing draft picks. At least Tejada (a probable Type-B free agent who certainly wouldn’t turn down arbitration) was jettisoned for Wynn Pelzer, a promising power pitcher, albeit with spotty command who might be a bullish bullpen acquisition… even if they are paying half Tejada’s $2.12 million balance. They also get points for flipping scrapheap LOOGY Will Ohman for Rick VandenHurk whose stellar July Triple-A numbers indicate he still has a real future if he can refine his off-speed arsenal, especially against southpaws. You can never have enough cheap young pitching, especially since the Os’ fab four phenoms have frustrated. Still, MacPhail’s phone must have rung off the hook. Was he out fishing (recreationally not professionally)?
- BOSTON RED SOX (GRADE: C+/Incomplete)
The Red Sox sellers? Is Theo prudent (waving the white flag in the face of crippling injuries) or prescient, keeping the once-expendable, expensive Lowell (despite the Rangers’ rumored interest), hoping to catch cheap lightning with Delgado, and assuming the return of Ellsbury (not!), Pedroia, Cameron, and Beckett would equate to free upgrades? Rather than mortgage the future to relieve his beleaguered pen, he may be playing the free agent waiting game while tweaking. Certainly he’s actively scouring through other men’s trash with customarily ruthless efficiency. If these acquisitions don’t work out (witness Ramon Ramirez, whom they lobbed to the Giants and the DFA-ed Jeremy Hermida, both arbitration-eligible), they haven’t lost or spent much and can replace them within the organization—Ryan Kalish may be more polished than expected, Dustin Richardson could prove to be their much-needed second lefty, and guys like Michael Bowden might contribute. Then there’s always waiver wheeler-dealing. Meanwhile, Daniel Turpen, the return for Ramirez, is an intriguing flame-thrower who could upgrade the pen by 2012. The real news is that Ahab Epstein finally harpooned his Great White Catcher, post-hype high-ceiling Jarrod “Salty Goodness” Saltalamacchia. Remember when the Rangers looked dishy behind the dish? Did they sour on the sweet-swinging Salty too soon? Despite seemingly being around forever, he’s still only 25; perhaps the change of scenery will invigorate him. Fenway’s certainly hitter-friendly, and reportedly he recuperated from his bout of Mackey Sasser disease (yep, the yips throwing the ball back to the mound, though more concerning is his inability to throw out baserunners). The BoSox won’t miss “old” 1B prospect Chris McGuinness or PTBNL Michael Thomas, but they may regret dealing the raw but roaring righty Roman Mendez. Still, that’s better than the Rangers’ demand for Clay Buchholz before the 2009 season, and Salty’s an upgrade over injured Kevin Cash as backup backstop though his OPS never topped .745 in the bigs; despite so-so contact rates, he displays patience and pop at the plate. If he delivers, he could assume full-time catching duties next year, allowing V-Mart to claim 1B or depart via free agency (V-Tek is likely gone regardless).
- NEW YORK YANKEES (GRADE: B)
The Bombers bombed out in their quest for a stud starter; ideally they’d have shifted Hughes to the pen for the playoffs, perhaps even September to limit his innings. They were willing to move Jesus Montero, arguably the game’s best catching prospect albeit a defensive work-in-progress, and Zach McAllister for latter-day David Cone rental Cliff Lee (reportedly an injury to toolsy two-sacker David Adams scotched that deal), as well as Scott Downs to plug the leaky pen. Hard to believe they couldn’t offer a better package than the Halos in the Haren sweepstakes. Perhaps, the Yanks’ mystique and money actually undermines their efforts and teams demand too much. If so, Cashman, who always acquires bench and bullpen help (though you wonder what takes him so long to seal the obvious cracks), literally merits his name for that fiscal restraint, refusing to panic and overpay for a bold-print back-page splash. This underrated master manipulator proved Machiavellian by obtaining last-minute steals without significantly depleting the farm system, even persuading bottom-feeders Cleveland and Houston to throw in salary. Cashman exploited system inequities, such as playing the no-trade-clause game to his advantage.
Lance “Big Puma” Berkman will prowl the Bronx Zoo, after he turned down a deal to the White Sox. The Astros kicked in $4 million, Berkman waived his $15 million 2011 option, and the Yanks gave up only error-prone infielder Jimmy Paredes (who projects as a utility player) and RHP Mark Melancon, whose shaky command undermines his tantalizing talent. At 34, with increasing strikeout, groundball and infield-fly rates, Puma’s declawed against lefties, and even against righties didn’t hit his weight on the road. Bat speed and average homerun distance were drastically down according to Hit Tracker Online, creating legit concerns about transitioning to the tougher league. Still, pennant fever could spark one more sizzling streak; even platooning at DH he’s patient and potentially potent, essentially a Nick Johnson replacement, whose line and menace surpass the now-demoted Juan Miranda and Colin Curtis. And he cost far less than Adam Dunn. Putting an admittedly underperforming, injury-riddled Kerry Wood in pinstripes cost only the famed PTBNL or $500,000 (Cleveland’s choice by October 15). New York’s only on the hook for $1.5–$2 million of the post-deadline $3,672,131 due Wood, whose 2011 player option won’t vest (the Yanks will probably decline the $11 million club option).
Cleveland hardly got a rise from Wood (6.30 ERA between DL stints, with a FIP and xFIP hovering around 5), who nonetheless deals 95MPH heat when healthy and if nothing else, could give Joba some perspective on successfully evolving from stud starter to closer. Wood’s acquisition could backfire if he doesn’t remain healthy, regain effectiveness, and straighten Joba out (indeed, sharing eighth-inning duties might shatter Chamberlain’s confidence). Cleveland also contributed Austin Kearns to the kitty for a PTBNL. Despite a misleading monster BABIP-aided April (OPS for May—July was .704), his veteran bat and presence provides added bench depth against lefties. Moreover he probably won’t be rated even a Type-B free agent. Granted, the former marquee names might contribute nothing. Or the Yanks might patch potentially gaping holes without significantly increasing payroll (less than the bankrupt Rangers!) and surrendering top-tier talent.
- TAMPA BAY RAYS (GRADE: C/Incomplete)
Tampa’s surprising inaction is ultimately about the farm system’s fertile fields, with several diamonds-in-the-rough looking increasingly ready to sparkle: Witness Hellickson stepping in seamlessly for Davis/Niemann, not to mention the offensive and defensive contributions of Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, who will probably become regulars à la Zobrist as Tampa sheds veterans and their increasing salaries. Moreover, Executive Veep/GM Andrew “World B.” Friedman is as shrewdly opportunistic as Theo; he and his sabermetric stathead posse stalk the baseball universe like a geekily Galactic Death Star ray. The team is already built for the playoffs; its enviable depth enables Friedman to resist temptation to make, say, a Dunn deal. Still, Tampa needed to counter the Yankees’ haul, especially given its ho-hum hitting (at the deadline they tied Seattle for least DH dingers). But if the Nats couldn’t sign Dunn to an extension and likely would flinch at offering arbitration, why would the small-market Rays rent? Simple. They can afford to assume salary for the stretch run, considering they’re dumping payroll next year, with Crawford, Navarro, and Soriano off the books, not to mention probably Peña and several other relievers. Let’s assume the price was too high, despite that vaunted depth, especially at DC’s big squeeze, pitching. After all, Texas made an all-out push given the franchise’s financial uncertainty prior to the Ryan group sale. Still, if anyone can exploit the waiver deadline offerings, Friedman can. Unfortunately, the Os have pulled Luke Scott, a perfect cheap fit against righties, off the market for now.
Which leaves fans quailing at Qualls. But for just over $1 million (remaining on his contract) and a PTBNL, this is exactly the kind of calculated gamble that could pay off for the saber-savvy Friedman. Knowing Balfour was done, he expedited haggling with Diamondback interim GM Jerry DiPoto, who was in a tough position. He knew he had to dump salary and even though every club now uses advanced metrics in their scouting and trading, how much can you realistically demand for a dude sporting a ghastly 8.20 ERA and .370 BAA? Not that he’s an easy sell for Friedman to any risk-averse ownership and fans, but Qualls had been one of the game’s steadiest assets at a notoriously unreliable, volatile position. He hadn’t logged an ERA over 3.76 in his previous 6 MLB seasons. Predictive metrics from BP SIERA to xERA to FIP confirm that stable performance was no fluke; even this season they’re little higher than his career norm. Qualls admitted he’d tinkered too much with his mechanics to compensate for off-season surgery on his dislocated patella. His fastball had regained pre-injury velocity, even if his K and GB percentages declined. Still he’d maintained 3:1 K:BB and 2:1 GO/AO rates, suggesting not just brutal luck but butchering defense. All other pre-trade peripherals screamed bad luck: unsustainable .434 BABIP, 58% strand rate, uncharacteristically high homer rate (1.2/9). Though he’s moving to the tougher league, Chase Field escalates scoring by 15% while the Trop suppresses runs by 6%. Most notably, Qualls is a groundball machine who can’t help but improve in front of the game’s best defense according to virtually every ranking system. The likely regression to the mean is improvement, and given his experience, including the playoffs, he’s preferable to Cormier, Sonnanstine, and company. Let’s see if Friedman can obtain a big bopper before we raise the grade.
- TORONTO BLUE JAYS (GRADE: C+)
GM Alex Anthopoulos was generally flayed for failing to deal three (mostly) reliable late-inning relievers in a bear bullpen market: Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and Kevin Gregg, none of whom would help them contend before, oh, 2013 anyway. Given their reasonable contracts, Frasor and especially Downs were valuable trading chips; considering Boston allegedly anted up Casey Kelly and the Yanks matched with Jesus Montero, you have to wonder just how high AA’s stakes were. At least he didn’t bluff or blink. But he’ll gamble again this winter when they become Type-A free agents. What if they accept arbitration? Could any compensation picks (six if all three decline) really match Montero or Kelly’s upside? They surrendered very intriguing pen pals in Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky, in addition to an over-performing Alex Gonzalez (good sell-high), but Yunel Escobar’s upside is exciting and Jo-Jo Reyes might prove a nice cog if he stops yo-yo-ing between the majors and AAA. I actually like keeping Bautista. Most GMs probably low-balled Toronto, figuring he’s another sell-high candidate, but when you can keep the MLB HR leader for just over $5 million next year, why not see if the breakout’s real? Trading Brett Wallace (the presumptive 1B heir) for Anthony Gose is a mixed bag. Perhaps there’s a reason Wallace has changed hands so often; few scouts doubt he’ll be at least league-average and even sniff .300 regularly, but concerns linger about his power ceiling. Still, he’s far more polished than Gose, who displays little pop and—improbably—less patience, making him a poor bet to leadoff. Nonetheless the High-A 19-year-old has speed to spare: best-case, he’s another Bourn burning up the basepaths (execrable SB% notwithstanding). But he may be the ultimate proof that GMs now understand that defense provides Win Shares. The kid has a cannon and could cover center and half of either corner.
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That’s right! It is that time of year again. The official release of the 2010 Fantasy Football Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report has come. This is the ultimate resource that has grown to over 400 players. It now provides trending information from the past three seasons. That means you can easily tell who fell out of favor since last year, or from 2007 if you wanted to. We also gathered data from “expert” and regular user drafts from multiple sites including Mock Draft Central, Yahoo, CBS Sportsline, and ESPN to name a few. This means that the Average Draft Position data we provide is not influenced by the rankings on a particular site. There are several other sites that provide ADP data, but non of them provide it in a tiered format like we do. Sure you could get you ADP data from other sites, but why would you?Here are some of the benefits of our ADP data over other sites.